CIS of Tezanos | The PP would win in Aragon but Empty Spain has the key to governance

With an estimate of four seats in Aragon, the pre-election survey for the 28-M elections prepared by the CIS puts the key to governance in the community in the hands of España Vaciada, the coalition of Teruel Existe and Aragón Existe, given that would be necessary so that, together with those of the PP and Vox, the popular Jorge Azcón could be president, but also in some scenarios so that the quadripartite led by the socialist Javier Lambán could be reissued.

In this way, the CIS estimates that the PP would win the elections with 36.2% of the votes and between 24 and 28 seats compared to the 16 it currently has.

Given that according to the Ciudadanos survey it would disappear from the Aragonese Parliament, in which the absolute majority is set at 34, the support of Vox for the investiture would not be enough for the PP, since the CIS grants the far-right party a 7.3 % of the votes and between 3 seats (those it now has) and 5, which in the best of scenarios for both formations add up to 33.

With the best scenarios for the members of the quadripartite, the PSOE could return to govern. The CIS gives him a vote estimate of 31.1% and between 24 (those he now has) and 26 seats.

One of its current partners, Podemos, would drop from its current five seats to three, with 6.4% of the votes, while another of them, CHA, would obtain between two and four compared to its current three, with 5, 5% of the votes, and the PAR sees how its representation is in danger, since the CIS gives it between zero and one with 1.7% of the ballots.

For this reason, if the members of the quadripartite all added up their best scenario (26+3+4+1) they could reedit the pact, but according to the survey, the support of the four seats granted to España Vaciada with 3.4 could be necessary. % of votes. The PP, in its best scenario of 28 seats, would not add up to 34 with the four from Aragón..