The CIS of Tezanos maintains the PSOE in its main strongholds on 28-M and leaves Ayuso on the verge of an absolute majority

The pre-election macro survey of the CIS de Tezanos supports the PSOE in its main autonomous fiefs and leaves the Community of Madrid governed by Isabel Díaz Ayuso on the brink of an absolute majority.

Castilla-La Mancha with Emiliano García-Page at the helm will reissue the absolute majority according to the poll, not so Extremadura, where Guillermo Fernández Vara would be forced to agree with United We Can to retain power. In the Valencian Community, the popular ones would greatly exceed the socialists, but Ximo Puig, again with the help of Compromís, can form a government.

In the Community of Madrid, the survey confirms the unmitigated victory of the popular with Isabel Díaz Ayuso at the helm, but the result does not guarantee an absolute majority. The PSOE, led by Juan Lobato, would not be able, according to the CIS, to surpass Más Madrid. According to the poll, the PP would prevail, monopolizing between 44 and 47% of the votes and would move between 61 and 70 seats. The absolute majority in the Assembly stands at 69 deputies, so that Ayuso would be on the limit to reach it. The PSOE, for its part, would obtain between 15.9% and 18.7% of the ballots, which would bring it between 19 and 26 deputies. These forecasts put an end to Lobato's aspiration to surpass Más Madrid which, with Mónica García, can accumulate between 20 and 23% of the votes and win up to 30 seats.

The Valencian Community, the territory that many consider key to settle the strength of the PSOE and the PP with an eye on the general elections and a possible change in the political cycle, could be maintained as it is today by reissuing the so-called Botanic Pact, this It is an agreement between PSOE, Unidas Podemos and Compromís. These three forces together would add up to the highest range that the CIS grants them, 58 seats. Well above the absolute majority, in such a way that they could even dispense with the support of the purple formation. The PP, for its part, would get between 31 and 36 deputies, and could even surpass the Socialists, but in its case, the support of Vox would not be enough to wrest power from them.

In Castilla-la Mancha, the PSOE will continue to repeat the absolute majority held by García-Page and this despite the fact that the small size of its Parliament is detrimental. In the Castilian La Mancha Assembly the absolute majority is only 17 deputies. On 28-M, according to the CIS, the Socialists are in a position to obtain between 44 and 50% of the votes and occupy between 16 and 22 seats. The PP remains far behind according to Tezanos's estimate. The popular ones would achieve between 25 and 30.9% of the ballots, which would bring them between 9 and 11 deputies. Vox would oscillate between two and four seats and United We Can in the best of cases could occupy two seats in the Assembly.

The case of Extremadura offers the worst prognosis for the socialists. Guillermo Fernández Vara would lose the absolute majority and with between 37 and 44% of the votes he would achieve 28 or 29 deputies and would inevitably need United We Can to continue leading the Board. The PP follows the Socialists very closely, being able to win up to 39% of the ballots and occupy between 24 and 26 seats. However, in this case, the help of Vox would not be enough to wrest power from the PSOE.

Aragon and La Rioja, in the air

In La Rioja, the socialist Concha Andreu could maintain the Government with the support of United We Can as long as the highest fork predicted by the CIS is confirmed. However, in this case there is the possibility that the PP would recover its fiefdom with the vote of Vox.

In Navarra, the PSOE with María Chivite can retain power by reissuing their agreement with Geroa Bai and Unidas Podemos. The question is whether it could be invested without the abstention of EH Bildu, something that was essential for him in 2019.

The case of Aragon moves in uncertainty. The socialist Javier Lambán would depend on various minority forces. To prevail over the PP-Vox tandem, it would have to arouse the support of various regionalist formations such as Aragón Existe or La Chunta. The popular ones would, however, be the most voted force in this autonomy.

In the Canary Islands, the CIS points out that the socialist Ángel Víctor Torres could revalidate his mandate with a coalition government in which two of his partners (Unidas Podemos and Nueva Canarias) would foreseeably return, while the third, Agrupación Socialista de la Gomera , which now has three deputies, does not appear in the survey. The sum of votes of PP, Coalition Canaria and Vox would be insufficient, in any case, to form an alternative.

In the highest part of the forecast range in the Balearic Islands, Francina Armengol would have the option of revalidating her tripartite PSOE, Unidas Podemos and Mes without problem. However, if the three leftist parties were to remain in the low band of their intention to vote, PP and Vox would have the possibility of touching an absolute majority by adding their forces as long as they get their highest expectation of result.

Adrián Barbón will win again in Asturias if the CIS forecast is met, and he will do so by improving his percentage of votes by 1.45 points. In second position would remain the PP, which is launching a candidate with the former senior EU official Diego Canga and would improve up to 10 points. In third position would be Vox with 9.1% of the votes, almost three points more than in 2019. The radical right-wing party stars in the most vertiginous rise. Podemos, despite its internal fracture, would retain fourth position thanks to 8% of the ballots. Izquierda Unida, which is presented together with Más País and Izquierda Asturiana, would achieve 6.8% of the vote. Foro Asturias, with 4.5%, loses almost two points and jeopardizes its permanence on the General Meeting. Ciudadanos goes from being the third force in Asturias to losing all its deputies.

In the Principality, the CIS does not give an estimate of seats due to the small sample used and the added difficulty that it has three constituencies, but with a stronger PSOE and some members who retain muscle, the rise of PP and Vox seems insufficient to wrest the Presidency of Asturias from the Socialists.

The PSOE defeats the PP in the municipal elections

The macro-survey also makes, based on the forecasts in the municipal polls, an electoral projection at the national level. Tezanos gives the PSOE a clear advantage over the PP. For the socialists, it scores 31.7% in voting intentions, while it leaves the popular ones at 27.3%. The third political position would be for the purple conglomerate (on this occasion Sumar is not shelled) which would be placed ahead of Vox with 7.9%. To those of Santiago Abascal, this forecast grants them 6.8% of the votes.