The 'Juanma Moreno effect' dyes the Andalusian map blue

A resounding rise of the PP and a collapse of the parties to the left of the PSOE have caused a reversal on the Andalusian map that consolidates a new political majority in favor of Juanma Moreno's party after decades of socialist hegemony in all areas. The PP has achieved five absolute majorities in the cities of Málaga, Granada, Córdoba, Cádiz and Almería, it would have recovered Huelva and Seville and only Jaén could resist it, where an 11-seat tie gives the party the key Jaén Deserves More. In addition to the capitals, the PP has also achieved an absolute majority in important cities such as Jerez, Algeciras, El Ejido or Marbella.

In the general vote count, the PP would have been in first place with 38.11% of the total support (more than 1.4 million votes).. The PSOE would have remained in second position, with 33.34% of the votes and around 1.3 million votes. In third position would have been Vox, with 6.7% of the votes; and With Andalusia in fourth position, with 6.5% of the ballots.

The PSOE, however, would have obtained more councilors than the PP, although losing 470 councillors, while the PP would add 843 councilors more than in 2019. The reduction of the gap is not, however, enough for the surprise to take place in the number of representatives in plenary sessions. The PSOE remains as the most voted list in 343 municipalities compared to 257 for the PP. And he gets 74 absolute majorities compared to the 52 of the popular ones.

Andalusia has not held regional elections because it already had them in June 2022, but the expectation was high to find out if the massive vote that gave Juanma Moreno an absolute majority a year ago was socially consolidated in favor of the PP. Or if, on the contrary, the PSOE maintained its strength in the territory at the municipal level despite the loss of the institutional power of the Junta and the precariousness of the organic leadership of Juan Espadas.

The results are devastating in favor of the PP and leave Juan Espadas in a position of extreme weakness, whose only possible consolation is that the Andalusian debacle will be more or less diluted in the poor results of the PSOE throughout the country.

If for the whole of Spain these municipal elections can be read as a first round of the general elections, in Andalusia the PP presented them as a second round of the regional elections, asking for a new dose of confidence from the voters to complete the electoral turnaround.

Keeping Seville was a strategic issue for the PSOE de Espadas and also for Ferraz, in the same way that, for the PP, it was a priority to recover some mayoralties such as Granada or Cádiz, where Juanma Moreno had made very personal bets. Juanma Moreno's goal was for the map after 28-M to be, at least, balanced, taking into account that the previous one was heavily tilted towards the PSOE.

Reality has fully satisfied the PP's aspirations and has raised the PSOE's results to the rank of catastrophic, especially if one takes into account that, until this Sunday, six out of ten Andalusian mayors were socialists, compared to 24% mayors in the ranks of the PP. And the PSOE governed in five capitals compared to the three of the Popular Party.

In 2019, the general secretary of the Andalusian PSOE was still Susana Díaz, although she had already lost the presidency of the Board and an internal movement had been launched within the PSOE that demanded her relief, which was consummated in 2021.

This 28-M the PP has faced the elections with a much more advantageous situation, after controlling all the territorial power of the peripheral administration and the invaluable institutional speaker of the government council or public television.

However, the popular ones were aware that the PSOE had mayors well established in their municipalities and removing them was going to be very difficult.. The formula to turn the electoral map around has been to try to spread the Juanma Moreno effect to local campaigns, choosing, where possible, candidates with a moderate profile, without edges, to monopolize the large bag of votes that would be orphaned after the collapse of Citizens.