Catalonia is heading for a new electoral advance marked by the results of 23-J

Catalonia has become the last bastion that Pedro Sánchez has left for 23-J. After losing fiefdoms such as Andalusia, the PSC is the only hope for, in the face of the generals, adding deputies in key positions. The leader of the Catalan socialists, Salvador Illa, is the strongest baron at the moment, except for the wayward Emiliano García-Page. If the president has any chance of turning the polls around and governing, it is with the Catalan separatists. They are already agitating from Moncloa the message that with Alberto Núñez Feijóo the “factory” of sovereignists that Mariano Rajoy was will return.

The argument also serves to change the ERC roadmap. The agreements with the Government in Madrid have punished him in the municipal elections of 28-M. The Republicans suffered a severe blow when they became the third force behind the PSC and Junts. In the parliamentary elections, the forecast indicates that Carles Puigdemont's party can also surprise Oriol Junqueras's. In this scenario, according to different sources consulted, the president of the Generalitat, Pere Aragonès, would once again call elections. It would be the fifth time that since 2012 a legislature has not been exhausted in Catalonia.

The polls conducted by the Catalan parties for the general elections give ERC seven deputies in Congress, one less than Junts. The PSC would contribute to the result of Sánchez between 15 and 17 seats, the Commons between seven and eight, the PP seven, Vox two and the CUP, one. Beyond how these figures may end up determining the governability of Spain, in a domestic key the loss of the hegemony of sovereignism by the Republicans would make it impossible to rebuild relations with Junts, with whom the investiture agreement was broken.

Pere Aragonès would have a very difficult time moving forward with the Budgets for 2024. On this occasion, it would not be convenient for Illa to rescue ERC, so the call to the polls would be the most plausible option, according to what Republican sources admit.. The Catalans would predictably vote again in the spring of 2024 instead of 2025, the year in which the Republican mandate was completed.

Illa has expectations of winning the elections again like in February 2021. Then he was the winner in votes, but the sum of the sovereignist parties gave the absolute. Today, the PSC is fondling the idea that a pact, like the one that the Barcelona mayor's office has given to Jaume Collboni, could make the former Minister of Health president of the Generalitat with the Commons and it came from the PP.

The hypothesis holds on paper, but everything will be conditioned by what happens on July 23. If Feijóo wins the elections, he will have to negotiate with those of Santiago Abascal an investiture or even a government depending on how many seats he has. The PP sets out to exceed 150 that “necessary majority” that will allow it not to cede seats to Vox. If the Galician arrives in Moncloa alone, he could support the socialists so that there would not be a pro-independence president, as was done in the historic agreement of the Basque Country so that Patxi López would be Lendakari. In this equation, Pedro Sánchez should have ceased to be the leader of the PSOE.

ERC has already tried to approach those of Puigdemont to wave the flag of the process again. Aragonès has offered Junts a “common agreement” to demand from Sánchez the commitment that a referendum on independence in Catalonia will be allowed in exchange for reissuing Frankenstein, if the Prime Minister manages to join with his current partners. Those of Puigdemont have their own road map and marking distances with Moncloa is favoring them. The spokesperson in Congress, Míriam Nogueras, declared a few days ago that “it is very clear that Sánchez has lied to everyone” to justify his message that they distrust the socialist to give him their support after 23-J.

The PSOE has always maintained the referendum as a “red line”. Even if Sánchez tried to reach an agreement to remain in Moncloa, socialist sources warn that this time the party would rebel. “We have already paid dearly for the pardons and the reduction of the crime of embezzlement,” they point out from the territories where it continues to weigh like a stone that it was the president's management that “destroyed” the 28-M candidates. If Sánchez is given the numbers, he could try to use a vote in Catalonia as glue. Sumar has announced this week that his program will include that the Catalans vote “in some way” on their belonging to Spain.

The post-general board will reposition the protagonists, but if all the parties agree on something, it is that the Catalans will return to voting in advance, as has been the case since the process broke out in 2012. It is only taken for granted that Illa will be the PSC candidate. In the independence movement there are elbows before the bad relationship between Pere Aragonès and Oriol Junqueras, who aspired to be president. In Junts Puigdemont is also expected to move his thumb. The Commons have Ada Colau vacant and the PP, everything to do.