AIReF forecasts the weakest second quarter for employment since 2012

The Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF) forecasts a growth of 0.7% in the number of employed in the second quarter of this year, which would be the worst period from April to June for employment in Spain since 2012. without counting the year of the pandemic, 2020, in which jobs were destroyed in those months.

According to its latest forecasts, published this Tuesday, employment in number of employed persons would have grown by only 143,000 people in the second quarter of the year, up to 20.59 million employed persons, which represents the smallest increase in employment for this period since the year 2012, in which the number of employed persons decreased by 0.04% compared to the first quarter of the year, the equivalent of 6,600 fewer workers.

Of the entire historical series, 2020 is the exception, since the pandemic and the declaration of the State of Alarm in March of that year caused an unprecedented destruction of jobs: the number of employed fell by 5.5% in the second quarter and more than a million jobs were lost.

However, in the rest of the years of the last decade, the average job creation registered in the second quarter of the year compared to the first has been around 2%, the equivalent of around 350,000 new jobs.

The growth in employment forecast by AIReF for the second quarter would show a slowdown in the creation of jobs in the country, of which the Social Security affiliation data published monthly have been giving signs. This possible slowdown will be confirmed this Thursday, when the INE publishes the Active Population Survey (EPA) for that period.

Even so, despite the fact that the affiliation data has shown a slowdown in recent months (compared to the job creation that has occurred in other years), the number of Social Security affiliates has grown on average in the second quarter in more than half a million jobs, an increase that would not be registered in the EPA, according to the AIReF forecast.

This survey is the most solid indicator to know the evolution of employment in the country and the one used internationally to make comparisons in an approved way.

The 20.59 million employed persons that could have been achieved in the second quarter, according to AIReF, would still be below the all-time record recorded in the third quarter of 2007, in the midst of the real estate bubble and before the 2008 financial crisis broke out. , when the country had 20.75 million workers.

If the data for the second quarters are compared (which are homogeneous with each other), the data for 2008 would still exceed that of 2023, since the country then had 20.64 million employed people.

The economy, stagnant

Together with the employment forecasts, AIReF also makes an estimate of the growth of the Spanish economy in the second quarter, which limits an advance of only one tenth, 0.1% compared to the first quarter of the year.

This data will be confirmed this Friday when the INE publishes the information from the Quarterly National Accounts.

AIReF forecasts a 2% decline in exports compared to the first quarter of the year, which would have been offset by domestic demand: household consumption would have grown by 1.1% in the quarter, according to its calculations; public spending, 1.9%, and investment (measured by gross fixed capital formation), 0.7%.

In year-on-year terms, comparing the second quarter of this year with the same period last year, GDP would have grown by 1.6%, compared to the rise of 4.2% registered in the first quarter.