Post 23-J: four portraits and questions

Every electoral night we are always reminded of that anecdote attributed to Carlos Salvador Bilardo, who, before the resolution by way of the coin toss of a tournament equal to everything, ordered his players to celebrate euphorically as soon as the referee opened his palm hand in hand no matter if it came up heads or tails. “Celebrate, that later it is very difficult for them not to agree with you,” he maintained.

On July 23, not all of them won, but they did strive to raise their arms and smile as the rogue Argentine coach ordered.. Of course, some have more reasons than others.. The day after the elections with the strangest campaign in memory has left us in Andalusia with certainties and doubts summarized in four portraits and four questions.

It was not the Catalonia of the PP

On July 23, it was a victory for the Andalusian PP that forces us to smile and leave the champagne cold in the fridge. Happy without showing off, what would Luis Aragonés say?. A victory without the forcefulness of those harvested in the regional and municipal elections. The announced blue tsunami lost strength when it reached the shore, appeased by the socialist mobilization and the ghost of a pact that curiously was driven away a year ago in a radically different way.

Therein lies the main analysis that the popular must make: why the fear of Vox was fought in June of last year by concentrating the vote in Juanma Moreno until granting him a historic absolute majority, and, instead, now it has made the PSOE grow.

The PP chained its third electoral victory in just one year, completing a cycle that confirms the change in trend, although it did not achieve the ambitious goal set of doubling the seats won in 2019 to reach 30. The distribution from 25 to 21 with the Socialists prevented him from becoming the locomotive that would take Alberto Núñez Feijóo to the Moncloa station. It did not have the decisive role that, for example, Catalonia played for the PSOE to resist.

A respite that does not avoid the debate in the PSOE

For those who have become used to losing, any small joy is cause for celebration.. That is why the joy of the Andalusian PSOE was completely understandable. Without reaching the euphoria experienced in Ferraz, but with an enormous satisfaction full of relief. A third defeat, but by the minimum, with the feeling of seeing a small light on a horizon that looked chestnut.

However, that respite cannot and should not hide a fundamental debate to face its future with some hope. Why are the Andalusian socialists not a serious government alternative today? When analyzing the last three electoral processes, the feeling is that it is incapable of setting the agenda or leading the debate and depends on external circumstances. In the regional elections, where he directly defended his proposal, he received a severe blow. In the municipal elections, he suffered the consequences of a campaign raised in a national key, an evident situation in Seville, where the vote to punish Pedro Sánchez tipped the scales until he lost the mayoralty. In the generals, he has noticed the impulse of the general reaction until saving the furniture.

Everything seems to happen in spite of and not because of. The leadership of Juan Espadas, who has never become indisputable, continues to be at the center of the comments. This last breath can serve as a starting point for a restart, although he needs to get out of the loser face, get out of the loop he's been in since 2019, and become an option, not just an opponent..

Settled in irrelevance

Since Vox set foot in the Andalusian Parliament, in what meant its premiere in a Chamber throughout Spain, it has embarked on an unstoppable journey towards irrelevance that has had its penultimate chapter with the loss of three deputies compared to 2019. First, it was unable to assert its indispensable support for the first investiture of Juanma Moreno and it did not have the slightest influence on the PP-Ciudadanos coalition government.. Later, with the absolute popular majority, it has adopted a paradoxical role, since it wants to oppose two bands and ends up sticking with the thick line and the striking headline that evaporates in a day.

The left to the left resists

Sumar has remained in the numbers that Unidas Podemos managed in 2019, repeating the same six deputies, driven by the pull of the representatives of Izquierda Unida thanks to its tradition and solid implantation in the community. Consolidated on firm electoral ground, it must face the pending issue of continuing to unify the left of the PSOE and take advantage of its stage of weakness to steal voters from it.

questions in the air

Why, having three clear examples of how to annul Vox in Andalusia, Madrid and Galicia, has the PP made the mistake of giving it air and mobilizing the vote of fear in favor of the PSOE?

Who is interested in pointing out what happened in Extremadura as the focus of the problem and not the case of Valencia, where the original sin was?

At what point did it seem like a good idea that Feijóo not go to the debate with the disastrous precedent of Javier Arenas on Canal Sur in 2012?

Will the proposal by Pilar González and Teresa Rodríguez go ahead after its bad result or will someone pick up the Andalusian baton?