Niger, on the verge of a war after the coup: "If a French soldier dies, Macron will have no problem intervening"

The political and social future of Niger begins and ends this Sunday. The Economic Community of West African States (Cedeao) issued an ultimatum last Wednesday to the coup junta in Niger to return power to Mohamed Bazoum, the president deposed at the end of July. The response of the coup leaders was resounding.. They refuse to comply with what ECOWAS demands, despite the fact that four of the 15 countries that make up the group —Senegal, the Ivory Coast, Nigeria and Benin— are willing to take up arms against the coup leaders in Niger who, for their part, , are supported by Mali and Burkina Faso.

“A military intervention is a reason for an armed conflict and the coup plotters have the partial support of the population”. The reflection, shared 20 minutes later by Frédéric Mertens —expert in International Relations and professor at the European University— reveals one of the great fears that the international community faces after the coup d'état in Niger: that the country enters a civil war .

At the end of last month, a group of soldiers overthrew the country's president, Mohamed Bazoum, who won the elections held in February 2021 at the head of the Nigerien Party for Democracy and Socialism.. The members of the presidential guard held the president inside the presidential palace, closed the borders and appointed General Abdourahmane Tiani as head of state.

The problem goes far beyond a conflict between civilians in an impoverished nation.. The interests of the great powers, such as China or Russia, are at stake. “This war would have to be located in the West,” says Mertens. The European Union and the United States are concerned about the situation in Niger, their great ally within the belt that extends from the Atlantic Ocean and the Red Sea, an area plagued by jihadists and military regimes.

Not only economic interests come into play, but geopolitical ones against the West. “The Wagner Group is the executing arm of Putin” which is trying to “weaken the Western presence and influence” on the African continent, as Mertens explains.. “Two countries – Mali and Burkina Faso – have also been rocked by civil wars and there were Wagner's troops.”

For now, in anticipation of what the situation in Niger may bring, an A330 plane from the Air Force landed this past Friday with dozens of Spaniards evacuated from the African country. An evacuation that adds to those previously carried out by France and Germany to repatriate their people. The Gauls took 1,079 people out of the country, most of them French.

A conflict in Niger could generate tensions between the powers that are acting on the African continent. “There is not going to be any kind of war between them”, especially since “Russia does not have the resources to stay in an armed conflict” elsewhere, but other countries could enter. “If a French soldier dies because of a Nigerien, I don't think Macron will have a problem intervening or carrying out a military operation to protect his troops,” the expert pointed out.

Can an episode similar to the Vietnam War be repeated? “The Americans were directly involved in that conflict, but behind them were the Soviets and the Chinese supplying the Vietnamese with weapons,” explains Mertens.. These days, the United States has shown itself to be in favor of “putting pressure” on the coup leaders, but did not clarify whether it would support a military intervention to restore “constitutional order in the country,” Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Friday.

What seems clear is that Putin's hand would be behind this movement in a country rich in natural resources.. A spokesman for the German Foreign Ministry revealed on Friday that its intelligence services detect “growing pro-Russian propaganda” and “a disinformation campaign” since the coup.

“Russia, in case the West weakens, wants support in Africa,” says Mertens. It could be compared to a puzzle: “If I move a piece in Ukraine, I have to move another in Niger or wherever”. The key now is to wait for what the next steps will be. “If Putin has not assassinated the president yet, it is because he needs it,” he says. “Perhaps he has let him live in exchange for him doing his dirty work on the mainland.”