Referendum or elections

The radical independence movement was on the verge of extinction, in part, due to the skillful management of the Sánchez Government in confluence with the pragmatism of ERC. And, on the other hand, because it was evident that he had reached a dead end (independence is a chimera) and that, along that path, he had deceived many Catalans who believed, in good faith, that what was approved on 1 October could come true. And as a result of deception, they led the country to an unprecedented economic and social decline.. His management has, therefore, been a failure, which the Catalans who, at some point, supported him, were increasingly realizing..

Broken and confronted, the two souls of the Catalan independence movement, both in evident electoral decline and social support, with their leader pending to return to Spain where he would be tried for crimes committed (putting ballot boxes is not a crime, unless prohibited by law and the courts). and to do this, you also have to commit acts against administrative and electoral law) and a Catalan society waiting for a change in the political cycle with the most likely access to the Generalitat of Salvador Illa and the PSC, after the next regional elections.

Landing the negotiation with the Generalitat on specific issues, with a budgetary reflection, far from the dream-nightmare of 1-O, the pardons and the will to keep the political channels open, was a great success of the Sánchez Government, which knew how to read the moment very much. better than the right anchored in 155, cornering Junts with its refusal, for example, to recognize their dialogue to negotiate in Congress their radical proposals, such as amnesty, and thereby helping to “deflate” tensions in Catalonia and with Catalonia.

And we would still be there, if it were not for five parliamentary votes: after a confusing electoral result, where whoever wins, loses and whoever has lost, can win, those deputies are the determining factors to elect the next President of the Government of Spain, a nation that, For “repressive and oppressive” those who have those votes with decision-making capacity in the investiture are of no interest whatsoever.. Some votes for which the failed candidate Feijóo said he was willing to meet with Junts and, some votes, that the current acting Government has explicitly requested to reinstate President Sánchez. This must be made very clear: Puigdemont would not be, as it seems now, the one who has the upper hand in Spanish politics, which allows him to regain strength in Catalan politics as well, if, either PP+Vox, or PSOE+ Add up, they would have gotten five more seats in the elections.

The need, then, and not the conviction that it is the best thing that can be done now to find that new “fit” of the independentists in Spain, is what has placed the amnesty and, again, the almost forgotten self-determination referendum , on the frontispiece of Spanish politics, threatening to cause another earthquake that will increase, even more, the number of trenches in the polarized and confrontational Spanish scenario of coexistence.

I don't know if this will heal wounds with Catalonia. But it is certain that they will reopen them in Spain and, also, in Catalonia, leaving all of us who have defended with conviction both the 155 at the time and the political steps taken subsequently by this Government confused, refusing to accept the framework within which the radical independence builds its feverish discourse. Until the night of July 23, I believed that the referendum was postponed indefinitely, that the rupture between the independents was irreversible and that the amnesty was either not constitutional, or it was a serious mistake that we socialists refused to make, coinciding, in this, with the party leadership.

It is true that the need for Catalan votes forced, for example, González to accept the transfer of 15% of personal income tax to the CCAA, as well as Aznar to raise it to 30% (after having said that the transfer of 15% “would break Spain “). Or that the parliamentary votes of the PNV have imposed conditions on the governments of both sides in recent decades that, without needing their support, they would not have accepted..

Anyone who knows how a democratic parliament works knows that that is precisely what it consists of: negotiating and accepting things that were not in your initial project, in exchange for improving the text, expanding support or, most of the time, in exchange for the votes necessary to move it forward. It is the same democratic logic that we have seen in the current coalition government between PSOE and UP, or in the new autonomous governments of the PP and Vox coalition: it is discussed, it is negotiated, it is accepted what you denied before. So what is the difference now? Why is negotiating the investiture with Junts different from doing so with PNV, Canarian Coalition, ERC, Vox, Sumar, etc.?

Part of the controversy has focused on the change of opinion of the PSOE leadership. I don't think it is the most relevant thing, although I would have liked it to have been carried out differently, without giving the feeling of the joy expressed on the same election night of having already secured the investiture, despite having obtained fewer votes and seats than the PP. All agreements involve accepting what you didn't want before.. As a mythical example, that Aznar who, in the middle of negotiations with ETA, brought prisoners to Euskadi or agreed to call them “Basque Liberation Movement”.

It is also still used as a central argument against the agreement, that what Puigdemont has asked for, dragging Esquerra into it, in exchange for their votes, is not constitutional.. Well, first we will have to see if Sánchez accepts what they ask of him as is or if there are changes to it that may affect his legal fit.. We would have to wait to know specific texts to pronounce. In any case, given the opinions expressed by distinguished jurists, it could happen that it would be possible to find a fit for them within the current legal system, as the Government has always repeated (“the limit is the Constitution”).. In any case, regarding the constitutionality of what was agreed, the only relevant opinion is the one made by the Constitutional Court on texts and not on intentions..

Some heroes of the transition have raised their voices indignantly because agreeing now with Puigdemont would be a betrayal of the transition and everything that the “regime of '78” means.. I disagree. If we remember something with pride about that complicated process of transition from a dictatorship to a democracy, it is precisely the spirit of reconciliation and consensus that made it possible.. From Suarez legalizing a PCE against the ultras, to Carrillo accepting the flag and the monarchy, against the extreme left.

Finally, the definitive argument is once again that, with this, “Spain is broken”, causing a grievance and an insult to “the Spaniards” (Whoever accepts this, aren't they Spanish?) and the “rule of law”. Well, the right has used this argument so much, with the pardons last time, that it is not worth spending much time on it. Suffice it to add that, apparently, we Spanish progressives have greater confidence in Spain and its strength as a European project, than those patriots who have half of the Spaniards left over seem to have..

And having said all this, I disagree with how the Government is managing such an important issue, with obvious errors due to excessive prominence, such as the visit of the vice president to Puigdemont, with no other purpose than to appear on television whitewashing whoever, at the moment, He is a fugitive from Spanish justice. A successful negotiation of the investiture should never have been taken for granted, because this required putting all the focus and all the negotiating capacity in the hands of Puigdemont, positioned as the architect of a new progressive Government in Spain..

Because he has been resurrected, contravening the entire meaning of what was done in the last legislature. Because he is someone who has built his entire political character and his party, “against an oppressive and repressive Spain”. Because it would drag ERC into a competition, already exhausted, of “let's see who is more independent”. Because it upset those of us who have been with the Government, until now, in the Catalan administration, above all, it left the PSC and Illa out of the game, only recovered by the high political clumsiness (I don't know if agreed) of the independents in bringing the Parliament an impossible resolution.

Revitalizing Junts, because their votes are needed, is a serious political error, in one of the most important issues for Spain: the fit of Catalonia (many Catalans say they want to leave Spain and many more that they do not want to leave).

If finally, as a result of the negotiation that seems to be already very advanced, “a historic agreement with Catalonia” were reached that went beyond the investiture and that included other aspects in addition to a pardon law, as Sánchez has hinted, it would be essential submit it to a referendum of the entire Spanish people. If the negotiation is successful, we would not be facing a minor matter or one of interpretation of the laws, but rather assuming mutual commitments that must include the abandonment of the unilateral route, of great magnitude and quasi-constitutional or statutory scope..

Therefore, unless, in the end, the mountain gave birth to a mouse or an agreement was impossible and we had to repeat elections, I believe it is unavoidable to subject any agreement that seriously affects the governability of Spain to the right of Spaniards to decide through a specific referendum.. As was done with NATO, at the time. Alternatively, a qualified majority would have to be guaranteed in the Congress of Deputies that included the support of the PP since the existence of bridges cut between the two major parties is the authentic abnormality of our political moment, proof of the success of populism and the reason why the tyranny of minorities exists. At least, in matters of state like this, it should not be possible. Therefore, either a referendum, or elections since, in democracy, forms and procedures are of the utmost importance.

And, by the way, I would vote in both cases in favor of an agreement that would give us years of relative tranquility with “the Catalan problem” and allow us to focus on the other really important problems that this 21st century brings us..