Spain will be the large European economy that will grow the most in 2023 and 2024, but also the one that will suffer the most inflation next year

The Spanish economy will grow more than its main European neighbors during the next two years. This has been stated in recent weeks by organizations such as the European Commission or the OECD.. The latest to confirm this has been the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which presented its outlook report for the world economy this Tuesday in Casablanca (Morocco) with another not so positive conclusion for Spain: of the large European economies, it will be one of countries in which inflation in 2024 is higher than that in 2023.

The organization led by Bulgarian economist Kristalina Georgieva predicts that Spanish GDP will rebound by 2.5% this year, a growth that will slow down to 1.7% next year (three tenths less than what the IMF itself predicted just ago). three months). These figures far exceed the forecasts for the eurozone (0.7% in 2023 and 1.2% in 2024) and those of the three large economies of the Old Continent: Germany, France and Italy in that order.

The IMF predicts that the German economy will close 2023 in negative territory, with a decline in GDP of 0.5% and then rebound by 0.7% in 2024.. A harsh setback that reflects the impact that the war in Ukraine, the increases in interest rates and the slowdown of the world economy are having in a country highly dependent on exports.. In the other two large European economies, growth will also be contained. The French GDP will advance by 1% in 2023 and 1.3% in 2024, while the Italian GDP will increase by 0.7% both this year and next.

The IMF's predictions indicate that Spain will also be among the European countries with the lowest inflation in 2023.. The organization's economists estimate that the rise in consumer prices will be around 3.5% on average this year, almost two points below the eurozone average.

However, if nothing remedies it, the trend will reverse in 2024. The IMF forecast is that inflation will rise to 3.9% next year, above what is expected for Germany (3.5%), France (2.5%) or Italy (2.6%).. In fact, if the forecasts are met, Spain will be one of the few European countries in which inflation in 2024 is higher than that in 2023: only Belgium, the Netherlands and Luxembourg would see a similar movement.

The reason for this rebound in Spanish inflation has to do with the end of the energy support measures, which if not renewed will expire on December 31 of this year.. Among them are the tax reduction on the electricity and gas bill or the Iberian mechanism to lower the price of electricity generated with gas.. If the Government decides to extend any of these measures also to 2024, international organizations will have to readjust their forecasts.

Global economic recovery slows down

IMF economists point out that 2023 will be the year of slowdown after 2021 and 2022 marked by a significant economic rebound after the pandemic shock. The scars of the pandemic, the war in Ukraine, global economic fragmentation, sharp increases in interest rates, the withdrawal of fiscal support and extreme weather events are hampering growth this year and will also do so in 2024 and 2025, reflects the IMF.

90% of the world's advanced countries will grow less in 2023 than in 2022 and the global economy will advance around 3% this year and next. A record that is below the average before the pandemic of this century. “Medium-term global growth forecasts are at their lowest levels in decades and countries' prospects for achieving higher living standards are weak,” the IMF notes.