Moncloa wants to "sit" Puigdemont at the dialogue table and warns: "Catalans will not vote for anything"

Today Spain has a dilemma that is complex to resolve.. Or repeat elections, with the risk that political balances will be as fragile as now; or makes an agreement with a party that maintains the legitimacy of October 1 and that has not and will not renounce unilateralism as a legitimate resource to assert its rights.”. This is how Carles Puigdemont commemorated the fourth anniversary of the Supreme Court ruling that condemned the independence leaders who called the illegal referendum and proclaimed independence for sedition.. Oriol Junqueras did the same, demanding an “essential” amnesty to negotiate “on equal terms” so that Catalonia can exercise “its right to self-determination”.

The anniversary does not benefit the interests of Pedro Sánchez, who this week concluded his round of public negotiations for the investiture with Bildu as the only partner that has confirmed its affirmative vote.. In private conversations the horizon is more encouraging. Since August, Moncloa has been in a tug-of-war with Junts and ERC to close an agreement that satisfies all parties and that guarantees not only the majority of 176 votes for the acting president, but also a “minimally stable” legislature.. Much progress has been made as recognized by both sides, but in the final stretch it will be determined whether the fugitive finally wants to do politics or whether his top speeches continue to be red lines..

With the amnesty on track legally and measuring every word in the preamble, the framework is to take Junts to the so-called “dialogue table” that started in 2020. Puigdemont always denied this scenario and used it as a weapon against ERC, whom he accused of kneeling in front of the Government of Spain. Now, for Moncloa it is a priority that the Junts leader agrees to abandon unilateralism as a gesture in exchange for the measure of grace. The acting president is willing to take on the wear and tear, but he cannot run the risk of the independence movement revolting in the next four years..

Puigdemont and Junqueras also have to do their own damage control with their bases and with the horizon of the Catalan elections that could be brought forward to 2024. In the case of the fugitive, he insists on the need for what is agreed upon with Sánchez to be supervised by a “rapporteur.”. Moncloa has always denied this figure despite the fact that there has been talk that José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero could end up playing a similar role.. The times do not allow the amnesty to be approved before the investiture, as the fugitive demanded, and those around the former president of the Generalitat want “guarantees”. The distrust towards Sánchez continues as the first day.

The “dialogue table” as it has worked until now is “insufficient” for Junts, which is pushing for an “arbitrator” to verify the agreements. The analysis they make is that until now no steps have been taken for Catalonia to vote on its future.. The referendum is another obstacle. “Catalans will not vote at all,” a minister categorically assures this newspaper, who closes any avenue for there to be ballot boxes..

The fine print of the papers exchanged by the emissaries is only known to a few, including Minister Félix Bolaños and the Secretary of Organization of the PSOE, Santos Cerdán; but the socialists are convinced that in “no case” will they give in on this issue. Of course, they assume that the paragraph that was already included in the text agreed upon by the Generalitat and Moncloa to guarantee that the conclusions were voted on will be “made more flexible” to give an “alibi” to the sovereigntists.. The wording must be broad enough so that the Executive can “sell” firmness and Junts and ERC, which have made the commitment that a vote will end up.

At this point Junqueras appears more collaborative. ERC assumes that the referendum, despite Gabriel Rufián's “theatricalization”, is not possible at this moment. The Republicans will give their “yes” to Sánchez as long as it is validated that the path they opened towards the “resolution of the conflict” is the correct one.. Here it comes into play that a new Statute ends up being negotiated in this legislature that includes demands that the Constitutional Court overturned, such as Catalonia having its own General Council of the Judiciary, among others.. It is noted on Moncloa's agenda, but they note that “now is not the time”.

How much is Puigdemont willing to give up? That is the unknown that keeps the acting president awake at night.. If his public statements are followed until the last moment, there will be no guarantees for Sánchez; but the socialist is also tightening the rope knowing that the fugitive wants to return home. It seeks to protect itself from future plot twists due to the struggle between ERC and Junts. When he presents the agreement, which is carried out in absolute secrecy, despite the fact that it was said that it would be transparent, it will include not only amnesty, but also financing, a territorial model, reforms… There will be a wrapper or there will not be one.