The opposition could form a government in Poland and turn the country towards Europeanism

Poland is on the path to political overturn. The opposition could form a new Government, according to the first exit polls. The party that has led the Executive since 2015, Law and Justice (PiS), would have won the elections with 36.8% of the votes, followed by the coalition led by the former prime minister, Donald Tusk, with 31.6%. of the ballots. The latter, supported by the smaller formations, could lead the new cabinet in a broad amalgamation. In fact, Third Way (13%), Left (8.6%) and the Liberty and Independence Confederation (6.2%) are behind. The absolute majority is 231 seats.

The general map is as follows: a total of 6,656 candidates from 41 electoral districts are contesting 460 seats, according to Poland's proportional representation system. Senators are elected in 100 single-term districts, in which each political group has the right to present only one candidate. The official final results are scheduled to be known at the latest on Tuesday.

A few minutes after the polls were known, the first reactions were already given. Donald Tusk precisely ended “the era of PiS” and celebrated that “Poland has won”. Instead, Law and Justice leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski celebrated his first place. Of course, everything is shrouded in doubts. “There are big questions ahead about whether we will be able to turn this victory into another term in office.”. But regardless of whether we are in power or in the opposition, we will continue with this project,” Kaczynski said.

Participation has reached historical data, exceeding 72%. And the elections were considered the most important in the last 25 years. Election day, in fact, has been intense and has even ended with a bomb alert in several schools in Warsaw, although everything ended up being a false alarm.

These elections became a face to face between two candidates. The favorite was Mateusz Morawiecki, current prime minister (but not the president of PiS) and who is one of the most influential radical right leaders right now.. His position is consolidated within a party that defends traditional family values, maintains an anti-immigration discourse and has been accused of “persecuting” the LGTBI community.. In this sense, some places in the country approved “LGTBI-free” zones, for which they received a reprimand from Brussels.. Morawiecki's figure has also been strengthened since the start of the war in Ukraine.

On the other side of the board is Tusk. The former president of the European Council is seen by many as the figure most capable of competing in the elections against PiS, and has also been in the spotlight in recent months for a law approved precisely by the Government (even known as the Tusk law). that sought to persecute those who had “some link with Russia” in recent years. In the case of the conservative leader, the key was his role in Brussels precisely during the illegal annexation of Crimea by Moscow in 2014.

The PiS seeks an interesting balance to expand its ideology: Warsaw's support for Ukraine is key for Brussels and while Morawiecki works on an alliance with Meloni's Italy that in turn represents a counterweight to the traditional European axis, which is the one formed by France and Germany.

Issues such as migration have served to strengthen the Warsaw-Rome alliance, as seen in the latest European Council summits. Poland, however, is the fifth country in terms of population and therefore one of the largest recipients of funds; It needs the EU, and in turn it gives it an almost constant pulse: it has been fined for violating judicial independence or for not respecting ecological transition policies and not closing the mines, which has meant a daily million-dollar penalty.. In addition, there is a file opened by the Commission on the aforementioned Tusk law.

Is Tusk precisely the hope of Brussels? It may seem so. An Executive led by him, although not very pragmatic in some matters, could bring Poland closer to the postulates of Brussels, with a more classic conservatism and with a drift that has a better relationship with Paris, Berlin, Madrid or Amsterdam (the Netherlands is also pending of their elections next November). For the European Commission, attracting Warsaw to Europeanism would also mean, to a certain extent, cornering the governments most critical of the Union, such as the Italian or Hungarian ones.

However, we must also take into account the relevance of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in the electoral campaign. Poland has become kyiv's most important support, not only in terms of arms shipments – along with the Baltics in general – but also with the hosting of 1.6 million refugees.. Now, the entry into the campaign has caused the first schisms: Warsaw prevented the passage of Ukrainian grain to defend national farmers, the Zelensky Government responded with a complaint to the WTO and the Morawiecki Executive warned that it would not send more ammunition and weapons. until they arm their own troops.

In addition to the elections, Poland is also holding a referendum on the immigration issue, promoted precisely by Civic Platform, at a time when Warsaw has shown its toughest position on the issue in the context of the EU.