The pro-European opposition obtains the majority in the legislative elections in Poland, according to partial results

The mere prospect of a change of Government in Poland after two consecutive terms under the Law and Justice party (PiS) has caused sharp increases in the financial markets and the prospect of a reconciliation with Brussels that will translate into the unlocking of community funds once once restored to the rule of law, sowing optimism in a large part of Polish society. The rise to power of a pro-European and liberal tripartite led by former Prime Minister and former President of the European Council, Donald Tusk, is inevitable, but there are dark clouds on the horizon.

President Andrzej Duda, who traveled to the Vatican coinciding with the possible burial of the party that elevated him, will announce the results of the elections this Monday. With almost 80% of the vote, the PiS, as the exit polls indicated, will prevail at the polls, but will not reach a parliamentary majority. PiS's chances of staying in power are practically zero, but Duda will give itself the deadline established by law, 30 days, to say which candidate it will appoint to form a government.. And PiS, as the party with the most votes, has already claimed that right.

“In accordance with the rules of democracy, it is up to us to try to build a parliamentary majority, and that is what we will do,” declared the outgoing prime minister, Mateusz Morawiecki, the big loser of these elections.. If PiS fails to remain in government, and everything indicates that it will not be able to do so, Morawiecki will pay a double price: he will no longer be seen as the “heir” to Jaroslaw Kaczynski's party and as a successful candidate to succeed Duda.

“Morawiecki has done everything wrong. It was supposed to become PiS's ticket to the metropolitan middle class and improve relations with the EU. But he became the tribune of the people, appealing to the less well-off. A completely wrong strategy, the effects of which we are seeing,” says political scientist Rafa Chwedoruk.

According to the PIS chief of staff, Brudziski, the party would begin to talk about a coalition with the farmers' party (PSL), although he did not explain why, since they still have not joined forces, so the only card they will be able to play It is that of transfuguism.

Because in the PIS there is a feeling that the electoral results are good. “It is a true success after eight years, after Covid, after the war in Ukraine, after inflation, after the attacks we have suffered, that we have come this far. And all this is essential to form a government, because we will probably be the first to present our candidate,” says deputy Bartosz Kownacki.

Analysts believe that PiS's strategy will be to buy time. Its first only interlocutor will be Konfederacja, a nationalist-libertarian formation now led by 36-year-old businessman Slawomir Mentzen.. His programmatic ideology converges with that of PiS, although the latter is even more radical, since Mentzen wants “no Jews, no homosexuals, no abortion, no taxes, no European Union.”. The problem is that this formation has not achieved enough support to form a majority. “We have played too lightly. We removed the harshest demands from the program, including the death penalty in our program. “Such are the consequences of looking like other groups,” the party analyzes.

There is agreement that PiS has made serious mistakes, which the liberal political spectrum appreciates. One of them is that they have not adjusted their program to the demographics. “To put it brutally, in the fact that some of their 2019 voters are no longer here and instead of seeing the new reality, they have closed their eyes. This Government has become intoxicated with power to the point of unconsciousness. The symptoms are confusingly similar to those of alcohol poisoning, so the ability to solve problems decreases, while the belief that one can cope with them increases,” explains Professor Jaroslaw Flis.

Polish observers maintain that the PIS strategy will be to boycott a possible government coalition between the Civic Coalition, the center-right Third Way party, and the New Left with 30. This tripartite would add 248 seats. “This coalition will not bring stability, so the legislature will either be short or it will not begin to work,” says Kownacki, who does not even rule out holding new elections.

The three formations, although with nuances, are pro-European and share an economic model. The priority they have set is to do the impossible for Brussels to unlock the funds from the National Reconstruction Plan. This is a massive financial injection of 158.5 billion zlotys. “I make a solemn promise that the day after the elections I will go and unlock the money from the National Recovery Plan, and we will all notice,” said Tusk upon seeing himself as the winner of the elections.

“Let's bring this money back. We will bring more than 100 billion zlotys to Poland. PiS didn't want that money, but we're going to be able to say goodbye to it, and we need it. That is why today we say: the Third Way or the third legislature of Law and Justice”, is the message from the leaders of that formation.

But according to economists, the most urgent tasks facing the new Government and Parliament include the approval of the budget for 2024, as well as important decisions on anti-inflationary shields for the forecasts of macroeconomic indicators (VAT on food, a possible extension of the solutions that lower the prices of energy vectors). Final decisions on the possible extension of credit moratoriums (and the definition of the announced income threshold) will also have to be made before the end of the year.. This is all the more important since Poland will have one of the highest deficits in the European Union – in real terms, around 5.2% – according to Banco Santander Poland. Only Bulgaria, Slovakia, Malta and Belgium will have it worse.

In a statement to the media, President Duda limited himself to celebrating the high turnout in the elections, almost 73%, and the democratic maturity of the Polish people.. “Elections are a kind of test of the extent to which we are a democratic, mature and supportive society when it comes to deciding for ourselves. Many thanks to all the compatriots who went to cast their vote,” he declared in Rome.

Duda also thanked everyone who participated in the referendum, which has been invalidated due to lack of quorum.. It only registered a participation of 7%. Former Defense Minister and PiS vice-president Antoni Macierewicz blamed the failure on the fact that, according to him, voters were coerced into not taking the referendum ballots.. “It was a criminal action,” he said.