Why there are nerves in the PSOE with the result of the investiture

As the moment of truth approaches, the mood in the socialist ranks is changing. Although the acting president has always stated emphatically that there will be an investiture, and that has not changed, the security that is transmitted from the main parties about the result of the vote is decreasing. The independence supporters are cooling their enthusiasm this week and affirm, as Josep Martí says, that the “agreement is very difficult”.

Negotiating processes are difficult to read, since the information transmitted is often ambiguous.. When you want to stretch the rope, you threaten to break it, and when you want to break it, you do it too.. So the tensions that are being perceived these days may be nothing more than part of the agreement process or signs that everything is going wrong..

In any case, what socialist sources affirm is that the most probable date for the investiture will be in the week that begins November 13, so there is still time to iron out rough edges..

Agreement at the core

These are of two orders. The first is with the independentistas, both Junts and ERC, who have different positions and interests. Socialist sources indicate that, after the new government takes office, a bill will be put into effect, drafted from a text that would be its core, and on which all parties would already agree.. It contains the general terms of the future law, the cases that are contemplated and who it could affect.. It will be worded in a way to which the Constitutional Court would find no objections..

The disagreement is in the preamble of the law. The PSOE intends to focus on pragmatic terms, enforce a technical amnesty and turn the page. Junts intends a review of the recent past in which a kind of request for forgiveness from the State appears for its actions after 1-O, to which the socialists are not willing..

The second complicated aspect focuses on Puigdemont and the type of amnesty he would receive. A triumphant return would be quite complicated to handle, and even more so if he had the option of running as a candidate in the Catalan elections.. This possibility would bother ERC greatly, to the extent that Junqueras is disqualified.. The solution would be for Puigdemont to pay a price, even if it was symbolic, and that has yet to be decided..

Tensions with Podemos

Socialist distrust also appears regarding Podemos. The distribution of power and positions that Díaz carries out in Sumar when the time comes, seems to have Nacho Álvarez as a fixed figure, which will leave those of Belarra and Montero without relevant positions. The temptation to rebel, in case they anticipate that they will not have a presence in the government, and vote against in the investiture is considered unlikely by the socialists, but not impossible.. They also understand that Yolanda Díaz does not know how to handle these situations with ease and that the noise within Sumar will increase in the dates prior to the investiture.. We must give space and positions to Más Madrid, the common ones, IU and Podemos, and the last two seem like they will get very little.

However, the significance of these last-minute tensions comes from an emotional factor much more than from rational elements.. The feeling they continually convey is that there will be an agreement, but that everything is subject to a possible last-minute rupture if the irrational components, both of Junts and Podemos, make an appearance, although denying Sánchez the investiture goes against their own interests.

In these circumstances, it is advisable to pay attention to the most realistic aspects. If Junts decides not to invest Sánchez, it would lose more than the PSOE; This could be left without a government, but Puigdemont could lose his freedom, and many of his people could find themselves in complicated situations due to the pending sanctions.. In addition, they also risk losing their vote if they are identified as the only ones responsible for the electoral repetition..

Something worse happens to Podemos. If Sánchez were not president because of him, that is, if all the parties in the coalition voted in favor and it was Montero's party that brought down the government, the electoral repetition would be catastrophic for them. It is much more likely that the break with Sumar will come after the inauguration than before.

There is still time for the vote, so tensions, misinformation and perceptions will have to be managed for some time.