The resistance of the Canary Islands economy: leading in GDP growth and no recession in sight
The GDP of the Canary Islands will give good news on the islands with an increase of 4.5% in 2025, maintaining the growth path to recover from the economic disaster derived from covid in 2020. The Canarian Gross Domestic Product amounts to 42,656 million euros, 3.5% of the Spanish total and the eighth region with the greatest weight. However, GDP per capita (18,990 euros) is the second lowest in the country, as is usual in markets that depend on tourism and 25.5% below the average..
Hispalink data for 2025 points to a growth in the Canary Islands GDP of 4.5%, that is, the growth path is maintained in 2024 with one tenth less. The Canary Islands authorities want to seduce companies to reduce exposure to the services sector; but these processes are slow. The Canarian productive specialization stands out for its great dependence on the tourism sector, reflected in the high weight of commerce, transport, hospitality and leisure (33.0% of the islands' GDP compared to 26.2% in Spain); The public sector also stands out (24.2% compared to 19.2%). On the contrary, the manufacturing industry has a very low weight (3.1% compared to 12.8% for the rest of the country).
All in all, the canaries will arrive at the top of the five regions with the greatest growth by 2025.. The five autonomies with an average higher than the national average will be, according to Hispalink's updated predictions, the Balearic Islands, the Canary Islands, Madrid, Catalonia and the Valencian Community, which would together contribute 60% of the estimated national growth in said period (3.3%).. The head of the Canary Islands Executive, Fernando Clavijo, has his sights set on five key concepts: digitalization, decarbonization, demography, deglobalization and deconfiguration of the international order.
To end the year, the GVA growth expected for the construction sector in 2023 stands at 8%. The business confidence index corresponding to this sector shows a growing trend with values two points higher than those observed in April 2019 before the pandemic. The Government of the Canary Islands approved a decree in April 2022 that allowed the review of public sector contracts and with this has favored the reactivation of official bidding, which has grown by 36% in 2023 compared to the previous year.. After the eruption on the island of La Palma, most of the funds allocated by all public organizations and by the Insurance Compensation Consortium will be allocated to the recovery of homes and the repair of material damage, which will contribute to the good progress of the sector in 2023.
The Canary Islands industry will close 2023 with a GVA growth forecast of 6%. The main indicators of the sector show clear symptoms of recovery: membership has reached pre-pandemic levels and the industrial production index is growing so far this year at an average interannual rate of 7%, which is reflected in the positive evolution of the index. trusted business in the industry. The model predicts that the primary sector will experience a fall in GVA in 2023 of 1.4%.