The "mirage" of the change of coach: more points and more effort in four games, but then "the effect does not exist"
“New coach, sure victory,” says one of the most popular sayings in Spanish football.. But, what about after the debut of the new coach? The data, which in the end are what give validity to the reflections, explain something different from that saying.. And if you, dear reader, have ever thought “with this coach practically nothing is going to change” and cast your gaze, like many, towards the planning of the squad or the level of the footballers, know that you are right, that statistics confirm what was an open secret. Changing coaches in the middle of the season improves the physical data of the players and gives a boost to the team's points for a very short period of time, maximum four games, but then, like the foam on beer, it dilutes until reaching levels of effort and success similar to those they had before the results crisis that led to the dismissal of the previous coach. Nobody does magic.
The theory comes from any player, coach or football fan, but the practical data has been put on the table by a study carried out between the University of Extremadura, Nottingham Trent University in the United Kingdom and the Sports Research Section of LaLiga. The three entities have studied all the matches played in the First and Second Division during four seasons, between the 2015 and 2019 academic years.. 2,950 First Division matches in which one constant is clear: the players run more in the four games after the change of coach and the team gets more points per game, but then the values return to a figure similar to the previous one.
«The effect of the change lasts four games. It is a short-term effect. The best thing is a long-term project,” Roberto López del Campo, member of the study and coordinator of LaLiga's Sports Research area, explains to EL MUNDO.. «The players see a new opportunity with the change of coach and are more motivated, improving physical data. And if you change it is because something is wrong, so at first it is logical that there will be an improvement in the statistics, but in general it does not guarantee you anything. Only four games. If you want him to perform more physically, change the coach, but he will not give you more points over time.. There is no such 'coach effect'. It's a 'mirage effect,'” López de Campo reflects.
From 0.68 points to 1.35
If we look at the points data of the teams that changed their coach mid-season between the 2015 and 2019 seasons, we find that in the four games before the dismissal they achieved an average of 0.68 points per game and in the rear four 1.35. But in the long term, once this initial novelty has been overcome, the researchers assure that “there are no statistically significant differences.”
Of course, the physical statistics do improve, although as López del Campo indicates “high intensity does not give points, what has to run is the ball”. For example, this season the club with the most high-intensity races (more than 21 km/h) is Celta de Vigo, second to last classified. The change of coach had a positive effect on the effort of the players of the affected teams, who ran, according to the study, 164 meters more per game at high intensity after the dismissal. And in total distance traveled per match, the arrival of the new coach is also noticeable: 695 meters more than before in the first four duels and 866 meters more in the remainder of the season.. They run more, yes, but the points are the same as before. «In the long term, in general, there is no improvement in points. We have to let ourselves work, because immediacy eats us up,” adds López del Campo.
Four with new technician
This season four teams have changed coaches: Villarreal, Sevilla, Almería and Granada, maintaining their position in the table for the moment. The trend warns that there will be more dismissals during the course. In 22-23 we had 11 between Elche, Sevilla, Villarreal, Valencia, Valladolid, Espanyol, Getafe and Celta. Do these teams sound familiar to you? No one is among the top eight. “The data says that if you bet, the results end up being good,” adds López del Campo, with the examples of Alguacil or Míchel.
Knowing the need for clubs to give a physical and emotional boost to their locker room during the season, many coaches study the statistics and playing style of teams that are doing poorly in case a call arises.. That's where LaLiga comes in, which now trains unemployed coaches in these analysis tools to stay “up to date with the competition.”. One of those hot positions is that of Sevilla, which has already changed José Luis Mendilibar for Diego Alonso and could look for another candidate if things do not end up working out..
The Andalusian team, curiously, has 10 injured, an extremely high number. «Be careful with injuries when changing coaches. The players put in the effort and there is an overexertion,” reasons López del Campo. Almería has eight in the infirmary and Villarreal, seven. Everything influences. And almost nothing changes.