A Belarusian Donbas? Lukashenko again raises the specter of a 'NATO-brand' uprising

The president of Belarus believes that there is a plot to take away territories through an uprising supported from outside the country. Two years after allowing Vladimir Putin to use his southern border with Ukraine for Russian forces to march on kyiv to depose the Ukrainian government, Alexander Lukashenko is now warning that the Belarusian opposition plans to seize a province in the west of his country — along to Ukraine and Poland—and request support from NATO troops.

Lukashenko frequently refers to the risks of an attack by NATO or Ukraine as a justification for keeping his military and security apparatus in a constant state of alert and continuing to escalate repression.. Considered a key ally of President Vladimir Putin, he has presided since 1994 over a regime in which all the main opposition figures are currently in prison or have been forced into exile in countries such as Lithuania, Latvia or Poland..

This time Lukashenko warned of the “high risk” of military incidents occurring on the border with Ukraine and accused the United States authorities of doing “everything possible” to lead the country into armed conflict.. All of this within the framework of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which he himself has made possible.

For the Belarusian dictator, the threat is in Kobrin, in the province of Brest, a quiet area located in the south-western corner of Belarus at the confluence of the Mujavets river with the Dnieper-Bug canal.. Throughout history, this territory has belonged to the Grand Duchy of Lithuania, the Polish-Lithuanian Union, the Russian Empire, the Second Polish Republic and also Soviet Belarus.. In 1944, the city of Kobrin was recaptured by the Red Army.. Since 1991 it has been part of the independent Republic of Belarus. “I don't know why they chose the Kobrin district, they talk about it a lot. [They plan] to take over it… and appeal to NATO to deploy troops,” Lukashenko ventured, addressing the People's Assembly of Belarus.

Lukashenko threatened the Polish Government, urging it to “avoid aggressive actions by Belarus”. He raised the specter of civil war at several points in his speech, in which he indicated that “some forces are being used to intensify threats against national security.”. He did not provide evidence for any of his accusations..

Lukashenko's approach is in line with the official Russian narrative in times of war, where the continuous and unproven accusation that both Hungary and Poland are also preparing, just as Russia has already done, to annex Ukrainian territories, is constant..

The Belarusian leader has decided to transfer several battalions located in the Vitebsk region, on the border with Russia, to areas located in the western part of the country, as if they were truly preparing a deterrent approach in the event of an eventual attack.. “The main risk has been created in Ukraine. “Washington is doing everything possible to lead us into that conflict and weaken Eastern Europe,” he added after drawing a scenario (that of a local uprising supported by a foreign army) that actually coincides with the one promoted by Moscow in the Ukrainian region of Donbas in 2014.

Regarding the situation on the front, Lukashenko once again equated invaders and invaded. He regretted the heavy fighting and loss of life on the Ukrainian battlefield, and pointed out the lack of ammunition and military personnel on the part of the Ukrainian Army.. He also addressed the attacks suffered by Russia against its infrastructure.

Lukashenko is one of Russia's supporters in the invasion of Ukraine. That is why he criticized the aid to kyiv approved this week by the US Congress: “Offering this money has been a missed opportunity [by the United States] to weaken us and weaken Russia”. The aid sent by the US to defend itself from Russia is for this Putin ally “an important factor in increasing tension in Ukraine and is very dangerous”, because in any case the Russian Army is equipped with “new weapons and large reserves” .

In this sense, he emphasized that the Russian forces “continue to advance”, despite it being a “slow process” and has pointed out that the talks between the parties held in Turkey shortly after the start of the war in 2022 could serve as a “starting point for negotiations” to end the conflict.