Rishi Sunak arrives at his first National Conference as Conservative leader with all the winds against him and in the midst of the reopened war between the Tory tribes. Labor is 18 points ahead, 34% of voters have defected (according to an Opinium poll for The Observer) and the last four premiers – from Boris Johnson to David Cameron, including Theresa May and Liz Truss – have criticized him openly for their decisions.

This is the emaciated panorama that awaits the president upon his arrival in Manchester, with general unrest over his alleged plans (neither denied nor confirmed) to give up the northern section of the high-speed train and the indefinite delay in lowering taxes. that the bases demand.

“The best tax cut is to halve inflation,” Sunak declared in a BBC interview, without needing to remember that the United Kingdom still has one of the highest inflation rates in Europe (6.7%) and that the British economy has not quite taken off with its recipes, despite the banker and technocrat packaging with which Sunak came to power.

In a tacit acknowledgment of his own mistakes since arriving at Downing Street in October 2022, Sunak admitted yesterday that “the country wants change” and promised to “do things differently to bring about that change.”. Criticized for his lack of vision for the future and his limited contact with the British, the “premier” has wanted to give a populist turn to his mandate with his retreat from environmental policies and a hard line on immigration.

The slogan with which the comeback is planned, “Long-term decisions for a brighter future”, has been quickly dismantled by comedians as “Short-term slogans for continued decline.”. Even the analyst John Curtice, considered the oracle of British politics, now predicts “a crushing defeat” for the Tories in next year's elections.

The revolt of the premiers

All together, the former premiers have fired under Sunak's waterline over the news about the possible suspension of the HS2 high-speed train to Manchester due to excessive costs. From his column in The Daily Mail, Boris Johnson has warned Sunak that this decision would be “a betrayal of the north of the country” and reminded him that China has built a 40,000 kilometer high-speed network since 2009, while the Kingdom Kingdom has not added a single kilometer to the only existing line (the Eurostar). Theresa May and Cameron have also stressed the importance of bringing the controversial HS2 to Euston and not skipping the final eight kilometers to central London. The endless strikes of the limping British trains have served these days as a pressing reminder to Sunak, famous for his lightning raids by helicopter.

Truss's revenge

Just a year ago, Liz Truss officially took the reins of the Conservative Party in Birmingham. The 45-day premier began its plummet with its tax cut and controversial mini-budget that shook the markets and caused the pound to collapse.. Despite having fallen disgracefully before the British, who consider her the worst 'premier' in history, Truss continues to have the support of the hard wing of the party for her neoliberal creed, as well as the support of defenestrated ministers such as Priti Patel or Jacob Rees-Mogg, who will support her today in Manchester at the so-called Great British Growth Rally.

The aspiring ministers

Sunak will also have to face direct competition in Manchester from two hard-line ministers, Suella Braveman and Kemi Badenoch, who are calling for a move to the right.. The controversial Secretary of the Interior went ahead with her speech in Washington, calling uncontrolled immigration the “existential threat to the West” and certifying “the failure of multiculturalism”. The Secretary of International Trade, also the daughter of immigrants, has stood out for stirring up the cultural war against the woke (progressive) ideology.. Braverman and Badenoch already competed in the Tory leadership contest after the fall of Boris Johnson and are willing to try again with the support of the grassroots.

The red wall

The Tory deputies recruited by Boris Johnson in 2019 in industrial England have made common cause in the Northern Research Group (NRG) and remember the commitment made and so many times postponed to end the south-north economic imbalance (here the geography is inverted by the pull of London). The red wall vote will once again be vital in the 2019 elections, and the discontent is more than palpable, with the defection of star candidates like Dehenna Davison in recent months or the threat of even forming a new party.

The moderate Tories

Sunak promised to reunify the party, and yet he has also biased against him moderate groups such as One Nation, which have only one reference in his Government (Security Secretary Tom Tugendhta). The premier has also biased against him the hundreds of deputies attached to the Conservative Environmental Network (CEN) for their “climate apathy” for the “reversal” in environmental policies.

Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi entered his country's consulate in Istanbul five years ago today and was never heard from again.. His murder at the consulate, responsibility for which has long been denied by Crown Prince Mohammed B

The Republican far-right has given Vladimir Putin the victory that he has not been able to achieve on the battlefield. The budget that allows the Public Administration to continue operating for 45 more days, and which was approved on Saturday night, when there were two hours and 58 minutes left before it closed, does not include a dollar in military or humanitarian assistance to Kiev. The White House wanted a military and civil aid package of 24 billion dollars, which the Senate had reduced by 6,000 and even so it has not been approved. The reason is the frontal opposition of the most ultra sector of the Republican Party in the House of Representatives, which openly sympathizes with Russia in the conflict.. With that decision, the US only has approved resources to continue supporting kyiv for a few more weeks.

If Congress fails to pass more aid, arms flow from Washington to kyiv will dry up. Although this is an unlikely option, it should not be ruled out.. And, in any case, the message that the United States is sending to its allies, to Ukraine and to Russia, is evident: American leadership in the conflict is in question, and will be more so as the 2024 elections approach and the public opinion's rejection of giving weapons continues to grow. Ultra congressman Matt Gaetz's decision to try to force the resignation of House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, in part because of his support for Kiev – and also in part out of outright personal animosity – may further delay support for Kyiv.

Those who oppose aid are concentrated mainly in the House of Representatives, although they have some support in the Senate, especially Kentucky Senator Rand Paul, an ultra-liberal whose father, Ron Paul, works as a commentator on the Russian channel RT, formerly known as Russia Today. They are a minority group, but with enough power to intimidate a large part of that party's bench, and with a thesis that is summarized in one sentence – something very important in the world of 21st century politics – and that also seems terrorize the Democrats who control the White House and the Senate: “Whoever wants to give aid to Ukraine shows that they care more about that country than about the United States”. The virulence of this attitude is such that in three days the Republican Party went from demanding in the House of Representatives a 10% cut in the budget in a series of items that represent around a third of US public spending to settling for these remain stable, as long as, of course, there is no aid for Ukraine.

Added to this are other more far-fetched arguments, such as Paul's fears in the spring that aid to kyiv would lead to a wave of hyperinflation in the United States.. Demonstrating how an amount equivalent to 0.2% of the country's GDP, or 0.7% of the federal State budget, can cause a rise in prices is something that could make Paul, who is an ophthalmologist by profession, worthy of the award. Nobel Prize in Economics. And finally, there is the argument that the United States, not Ukraine, is suffering an “invasion” of undocumented immigrants along its border with Mexico, and that this should be Washington's political priority.

Rejection of kyiv

The refusal to support Kiev is such in that group that on Friday night Gaetz indignantly tweeted that McCarthy had reached a secret agreement with the Democrats to, once the crisis was over, approve more military aid to Ukraine. This Sunday, Gaetz announced that he will present a motion to impeach McCarthy. It is very unlikely that the proposal will go ahead, among other things because the ultras are few and, furthermore, they do not have a candidate to replace McCarthy, who could count on the support of most of the Republicans and a considerable part of the democrats. But the move could further delay the delivery of aid to Ukraine.

However, there is still room. The fact that the Law approved by Congress and sanctioned by President Joe Biden on Saturday night does not contain aid to Ukraine does not mean that the flow of weapons to kyiv will end now.. The US Department of Defense still has about $3 billion ($2.83 billion) from the latest kyiv aid package, approved virtually unanimously by Congress in May. That means that the flow of weapons can continue for about two months, although some media outlets in the US insist that the figure is lower and there is only money for a few more weeks.. In any case, the race against time to help Ukraine has begun.

October is going to be the scene of that time trial. But even if the aid is approved, the outlook for 2024 is not good at all.. It's not just the drop in support for Ukraine in Congress. It is also among public opinion. And, finally, the confusion of the Joe Biden Government itself, which is not clear about whether or not it is going to give Ukraine ATCMS missiles and, if that is the case, how many it will give and when, or whether it supports a negotiated solution to the conflict that would include forcing Ukraine to hand over to Russia the territories it has occupied by arms. Kevin McCarthy touched on that idea on Saturday, trying to justify the exclusion of weapons for Kiev, when he said that the Biden Administration has not presented any strategy regarding the objectives that the United States pursues with its support for Ukraine.. In fact, the White House has repeated on countless occasions that the Ukrainians should be the ones to decide the conditions for the cessation of hostilities.. And Kiev has a peace plan – which was reiterated by the Ukrainian president himself, Volodymyr Zelensky, at the UN two weeks ago – that involves the immediate withdrawal of Russian troops to the borders of that country.

Signs of hesitation

But it is also true that the US government is showing more and more signs of hesitation. Relations between Washington and kyiv have deteriorated significantly over the summer, and in the US there is a perception that Ukraine believes that democratic countries will continue to support it indefinitely and unlimitedly.. General Mark Milley, who left his post as chief of the United States General Staff last week, has insisted that it will be very difficult for Ukraine to recover the 20% of its national territory that has been taken from it by Russia.. A chief of the General Staff does not make these statements without the prior authorization of the Secretary of Defense, who in turn does not allow them without the approval of the White House.

That strategy of taking two steps forward and one step back is something that pro-Putin Republicans are taking advantage of.. And that is forcing the defenders of aid to Ukraine to do contortionism to carry out the delivery of weapons. McCarthy, always a master in the art of tightrope walking over not one, but two pits – one with crocodiles from his own party, the other with sharks from his Democratic rivals – returned to influence the immigration issue yesterday Sunday on television, and linked it to Ukraine. “The priority for me is the United States and its borders,” he said, seconds before clarifying that “I support Ukraine having the weapons it needs.”. The idea of McCarthy, who is fighting for his survival as speaker of the House, is to link the two things. It is a complicated proposition, because the Democratic left wing flatly rejects toughening immigration policy and also agrees with the Republican extreme right in stopping supporting Ukraine, to the point of having made a proposal in this regard (which had to be withdrawn quickly) that could have been written in the Kremlin. In fact, Democratic Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, one of the most visible faces of that sector of the party, has announced that she will vote in favor of Gaetz's proposal to remove McCarthy.. The extremes touch. And Ukraine has the loser.

The year 2024, thus, looks complicated for aid to Ukraine. Supporting that country seems like a proposition destined to lose the elections. 55% of Americans say Congress should not give the country more help to defend itself against the Russian invasion, and 61% say they have already done enough for kyiv. It is a collapse of the support that this policy had in the days after the invasion, and the White House, in the purest tradition of the Democratic Party, seems paralyzed by the idea of having to defend a firm position on foreign policy.. Joe Biden has entrusted his reelection to the economy, and he does not want to change that roadmap.

On the Republican side, the situation is more extreme. Donald Trump never tires of saying that if he gets to the White House, he will reach a peace agreement in 24 hours, but, unfortunately, he is not going to try to do that until he wins – if he wins – which means at least 15 more months of Butcher shop. Trump has also not explained what his magic wand consists of to end the conflict – again, you have to vote for him first to know the answer – but given that he described Putin's annexation of the Donbas as “great”, and that he professes an evident admiration for The Russian dictator, it does not seem that his peace plan will involve the restitution of the borders prior to the first Russian invasion of Ukraine, in 2014, nor the second, in 2022.. 63% of Republicans support the US stopping aid to kyiv, according to the aforementioned survey, which clearly indicates the preferences of that party.

The result is that the United States, which in 1994 solemnly promised to defend Ukraine in exchange for that country giving up its atomic weapons and handing them over to Russia, is reconsidering in 2024 whether to do with Kiev the same as with Kabul in 2021, when the capital of Afghanistan fell into the hands of the Taliban: leave and wish your allies good luck. The message seems to be: winning the elections is worth giving Ukraine to Putin.

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John McLaughlin, who headed the US intelligence agency in 2004, is an amateur magician who s

The Puebla Group, which brings together 62 populist, leftist, revolutionary and progressive leaders from Latin America and Spain, has returned four years later to its origins in the Mexican city to celebrate its ninth summit. A conclave in which they no longer hide their dictators: Delcy Rodríguez, Bolivarian vice president and right hand of Nicolás Maduro, arrived in Puebla on Friday to participate in meetings and debates. The Cuban Foreign Minister, Bruno Rodríguez, also joined as a special guest.

Like several of the leftist presidents of the region, the head of the acting Spanish government, Pedro Sánchez, sent a greeting video to the participants, in which he highlighted “your contributions to achieving equality, prosperity and social justice , fundamental”.

Acting Minister Irene Montero, one of the founders of the Puebla Group, made an appearance in the Mexican city. The PSC-PSOE MEP, Javi López, also participated.. Among the Spanish attendees were the former Minister of Justice, Dolores Delgado, and the former judge Baltasar Garzón.

Irene Montero and Javi López. PUEBLA GROUP

What was born as a WhatsApp group, led by José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero and the former Chilean candidate Marco Enríquez-Ominami, with the approval of Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, today brings together old dinosaurs of Latin American politics, who seek to consolidate policies common in the majority governments in the Americas while whitewashing the three friendly dictatorships: Venezuela, Cuba and Nicaragua.

“In unity we advance”, is the slogan chosen at this new summit. The presence of Delcy Rodríguez represents a new nod to the Chavista revolution, precisely when the first point of the common agenda is to present a “progressive foreign policy”, including the creation of a common currency. Also led by Zapatero, Latin American leaders have insisted in recent months on excusing Maduro for the economic and social debacle that Venezuela is suffering in order to focus their criticism on international sanctions.. The Colombian Gustavo Petro, the Brazilian Lula da Silva and the Argentine Alberto Fernández have repeated part of the script prepared in the last meetings of the Puebla Group, held in the Caribbean Santa Marta and in Mexico City.

Evo Morales (i); the governor of Puebla, Sergio Salomón Céspedes (c), and the former president of Colombia Ernesto Samper. HILDA RIOS EFE

“Latin America deserves a radical change in the management and administration of its public policies,” said another of the Group's leaders, former Colombian president Ernesto Samper.. The former president took advantage of his intervention to politically proselytize Mexico's official candidate, former mayor Claudia Sheinbaum: “Her arrival is going to be a revolution for Latin America.”. “It does not come only with the eyes of a woman, it comes to introduce gender mainstreaming in all public policies.”

Sheinbaum, who starts as a favorite in the presidential duel against the opponent Xóchitl Gálvez, will also lead an electoral event today, Saturday in Puebla.

Together with Samper, former President Evo Morales participated in the first meetings, who shares the Bolivian representation in the Puebla Group with his two great enemies today (President Luis Arce and Foreign Minister David Choquehuanca) in the fratricidal war that divides the Movement. To Socialism (MAS), and the Ecuadorian Rafael Correa, who is risking his near future in the presidential elections of October 15. The Citizen Revolution's bet is that the triumph of its candidate, Luisa González, precipitates a Constituent Assembly that allows the return of Correa, a fugitive from Ecuadorian justice after being sentenced to seven years in prison for corruption. Both Correa and Evo dream of returning to occupy the presidency of their countries.

Among the first participants, in the initial absence of Rodríguez Zapatero, the former Spanish judge Baltasar Garzón also stood out, who went to Puebla accompanied by the former Minister of Justice Dolores Delgado..

Garzón's office has defended Colombian tycoon Alex Saab, Maduro's figurehead now imprisoned in the United States, and has also participated in Spanish courts in the lawsuit filed by Nicolasito Maduro, son of the Chavista dictator, against human rights defender Tamara Suju.

The Garzón-Delgado couple has also visited Caracas during the summer, they even visited the Humboldt Hotel at the top of Ávila, today converted into the most emblematic place of the millionaire bubble for enchufados created by the Bolivarian revolution.