There are two types of wars. One is that of the generals, the strategy, the political objectives and it is fought far from the front. It happens on maps in which soldiers with many stars move figures that represent military units, fortifications
All posts by Carmen Gomaro
Europe tests its capacity for rapid action: 3,000 soldiers will be tested in Cádiz
Europe is going to test its military response capacity for the first time. The 27 want to show their union and strength. And they are going to do it with the first military exercise coordinated by the General Staff of the European Union (EUMS), the EU military command that directs operations abroad and that, in the absence of a common army, has coordinated the force of 16 countries to carry out an unprecedented deployment in European waters.
In this exercise, baptized as Milex 23, Spain will have a relevant role, having offered itself within the Presidency of the Council of the European Union. Specifically, it provides tactical command and most of the force. The first part of the training is underway until October 6, which tests the ability to plan and make decisions.. Starting on October 16, the practical and most spectacular exercise will begin, in which nearly three thousand soldiers from 31 units and 16 countries of the Union will participate.. Spain has had the initiative as part of the Presidency of the Council, which is why the maneuvers will take place in Cádiz and Spain will provide more than half of the soldiers.
Several Navy ships will participate in the maneuvers with the ships of the Amphibious and Projection Group of the Juan Carlos I, Galicia and Castilla Fleet; Harrier planes, helicopters, a Reinforced Marine Infantry Landing Battalion and the frigate Numancia. All of them form the group Dédalo23. “The offer from Spain, from its Navy, has been very important for the development of this exercise,” explained yesterday the Minister of Defense, Margarita Robles, who held a videoconference with the admiral commander of the expeditionary group, Gonzalo Villar, and with the commander of Castilla, Juan Bautista Payá, who explained what this mission consists of. “It is the first time that the European Union deploys real forces in an exercise, and the first time that it is directed from the General Staff in Brussels,” highlighted the admiral commander.
Although the Dédalo23 group begins its deployment today, the exercise does not begin for ten days, whose main challenge is “to assemble a force of three thousand people from 16 countries,” Villar explained.. This deployment will include the participation of Spanish and French amphibious ships; Spanish and Portuguese frigates and a French minehunter. Also ground components of the Army and a battalion of the Air component.
The soldiers will do the practice at the Retín maneuvering field, in Cádiz, where they want to test Europe's capacity for rapid joint action, in one more step towards its strategic autonomy. Therefore, the assumption for the training states that a non-European country cannot guarantee its security due to the presence of terrorist forces and they ask the EU for help to try to reverse the situation.. Faced with this hypothesis, they will rehearse the deployment of the Rapid Action Force, which includes a battle group to secure the port and an evacuation of non-combatant civilians (NEO), as well as a humanitarian aid operation.. A situation that is reminiscent of the conflict in Ukraine but that Minister Robles also finds useful to be prepared in case it also occurs in a country in the Sahel.. «We have a Navy with muscle, with preparation, interoperability. A reference point of rigor, seriousness and professionalism,” the minister stressed yesterday.
The implementation of this exercise is “a crucial element to continue improving our preparation, adaptability and versatility when preparing and responding to future crises,” recognized a few days ago the Military Director of Planning and Conducting Capacity, Lieutenant General Michiel Van der Laan.
In fact, it is such a crucial milestone that on October 16, the High Representative of the European Union, Josep Borrell, will go to witness the maneuvers, and two days later the Chiefs of Staff of the EU, present in Seville at the first Committee Military of the European Union (EUMC) that takes place outside of Brussels.
Armenia and Azerbaijan conspire in Grenada to move towards a peace treaty
The EU goes on the diplomatic offensive after the latest outbreak of violence between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the Nagorno-Karabakh enclave. Negotiators from both countries met on Tuesday afternoon in Brussels with senior European officials. The meeting was a mere thermometer to measure the temperature of the positions and, above all, to prepare the ground for Granada, where the two leaders will meet on October 5 on the sidelines of the third summit of the European Political Community.
The Armenian Prime Minister, Nikol Pashinian, and the Azerbaijani President, Ilham Aliyev, will meet in the Spanish city with the intention of facing a dialogue whose ultimate objective is to advance towards a peace treaty that will put an end to decades of continuous clashes. and flashing. The event will be attended by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and French President Emmanuel Macron.. For now, the meeting held in the community capital by the secretary of the Armenian Security Council, Armen Grigoryan, and the Azerbaijani foreign policy advisor, Hikmet Hajiyev, with experts from the EU, Germany and France has served to seal an intention to advance in the normalization of their relations during their vis à vis in the Andalusian city.
“Grigoryan and Hajiyec have discussed possible concrete steps to advance the peace process between Armenia and Azerbaijan at the next meeting [in Grenada], for example, on border delimitation, security, connectivity, humanitarian affairs and a treaty of peace”, summarizes the final communiqué issued by the European Council.
The one in September is the umpteenth military clash between the two since the dissolution of the Soviet Union and the most powerful since the last war in 2020.. On this occasion, Azerbaijan consolidated its position and strength after six weeks of intense fighting, which ended with a ceasefire sponsored by Russia, who deployed troops to supervise it.
Russia loses mediation capacity
The shock to the geopolitical table that the Russian invasion of Ukraine has left also finds its impact in this region of the Caucasus. Moscow is focusing its energies and forces on the military intervention that began 19 months ago.. In parallel, its historic relationship with Armenia is faltering after Yerevan has accused Moscow of a lukewarm response to preserve the status quo of Nagorno Karabakh.. For its part, the Kremlin has also not liked Pashinian's rapprochement with the West in terms of security.
The feeling among analysts is that Russia is losing its capacity to influence in the region, something that Azerbaijan would be using to consolidate its military victory three years ago.. “Baku had felt that its grievances related to the 30-year conflict with Armenia were not being adequately addressed by previous peace processes.”. “It redrawn the map in the 2020 war and is now seeking a peace agreement with Armenia, but on its own terms,” analyzes Crisis Group expert Zaur Shiriyev.
With a neighborhood inflamed by the war in Ukraine, the European priority is to cease hostilities, stop the exodus and restore calm. Their response to date has been lukewarm.. And somewhat even-handed, something that has not pleased the most critical in the European Parliament.. Dozens of MEPs have called for a firmer stance with Azerbaijan and even sanctions. However, energy is once again a thorn in the EU's energy alliances. Azerbaijan has emerged as a “key and trusted ally” when it comes to supplying gas to the community bloc. After the start of the war in Ukraine, Brussels and Baku signed an agreement to double gas shipments to 20 billion cubic meters annually.
“The EU fully supports the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Azerbaijan and Armenia and expects all actors to do the same (…) Azerbaijan has full responsibility to ensure respect for the rights and security of Armenians living in Karabakh. The use of forces to resolve disputes is not acceptable,” said Josep Borrell, EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs, recently.
The attack initiated by the Azerbaijani Army has left an exodus of more than 13,500 Armenians in one week. To alleviate the humanitarian crisis, the European Commission approved this Tuesday an emergency fund of five million euros. In total, Europeans have allocated 26 million euros in humanitarian aid to the region in the last three years. During the face to face in the community capital, the Europeans have asked the Azerbaijanis for transparency and guarantees on humanitarian assistance to the locals and more details about their plans and their vision for the future and the status of Nagorno Karabakh and its population, which is mostly Armenian.
Palestinians and Saudis strengthen ties over possible agreement between Riyadh and Tel Aviv
As rumors about the normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia within the framework of a major agreement between this Arab country and the United States turned into optimistic statements from their leaders, the dilemma of Palestinian President Abu Mazen gained strength: stay on the sidelines and criticize or participate in some way in the process to try to get the most for their people.
The visit this Tuesday to Ramallah of the first ambassador appointed by Saudi Arabia to the Palestinian National Authority (PNA), Nayef Al-Sudairi, and the recent trip of three important emissaries to Riyadh confirm that Abu Mazen opts for the most pragmatic option. That is, strengthen ties with Saudi Arabia to ensure that it includes the Palestinian cause as a requirement in the agreement that is being simmered in Washington.. Abu Mazen does not repeat the formula of 2020 when he launched a harsh attack against the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan for having normalized their relations with Israel.
In this way, the veteran Rais will go from being a critical but more isolated observer to trying to be part of a game in which the Saudis have good cards.. The change in strategy is not only due to the fact that it is the most powerful Arab and Muslim country but also because Abu Mazen is facing a critical moment: nine years of paralysis of negotiations with Israel, 16 years of control of the Gaza Strip by part of its internal rival (the Islamist group Hamas), the growth of construction in the colonies in the territory occupied in the '67 war, the most right-wing Government in the history of Israel and the worst instability in the West Bank since the Second Intifada.
Abu Mazen hopes that Saudi Crown Prince Mohamed bin Salman (MBS) will condition official rapprochement with Israel on “significant steps” towards the Palestinians.. The 'compensation' would not be limited only to major economic measures as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would like, but it would not reach the two-state solution either, although this continues to be Riyadh's objective as Al-Sudairi recalled.
“We are working to establish a Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital. Riyadh has a great interest in the Palestinian issue and its solution on the basis of international legitimacy,” said the Saudi diplomat in Ramallah, where he rescued his country's peace initiative in 2002 based on the principle “peace in exchange for territories”. Regarding possible normalization with Israel, he has limited himself to commenting: “It is normal that there is peace and stability among nations.”
In his meetings with Abu Mazen and the Palestinian Foreign Minister, Riad Malki, the non-resident ambassador defended “the close relationship between the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the State of Palestine” and confirmed the opening of a consulate general in Jerusalem. Malki defined the meeting as “historic” aimed at “promoting and developing relations between two brother countries and opening possibilities for greater cooperation in all fields.”
“The appointment of Al-Sudairi and the resumption of economic assistance are two signals that Saudi Arabia sends to clarify that the normalization of relations with Israel must include the Palestinian issue,” says former Palestinian adviser in the negotiations, Gaith. to Omari. When we ask this analyst to specify the measures, he answers: “It has to be related to Jerusalem because of its great religious value and to the two-state solution, but in practice, the Palestinians are realistic and know that they will not receive a state, although they will take steps.” tangible.”
Palestinian requests
Among Abu Mazen's main demands, the transfer to the ANP of some territories under Israeli security and civilian control in the West Bank (Zone C, according to the Oslo Accords), the resumption of Saudi economic aid (valued at $200 million annual) and the stoppage in construction in Jewish settlements. According to various leaks, other requests could be an intermediate agreement with Israel, the reinforcement of the ANP's security agencies and the reopening of the PLO diplomatic legation in Washington and the American consulate in Jerusalem, closed during the mandate of President Donald Trump.
But MBS is so interested in reaching an agreement in the coming months with the US. that it is unlikely that he will be able to ask for all the Palestinian demands, much less that they will be accepted by the ultra-conservative Israeli Government. He is obliged to “do something” about it to demonstrate support for the Palestinian people, but his top priority is the defense pact with the US and the reception of both its sophisticated weapons and its green light for uranium enrichment in Saudi territory. .
In his interview on Fox News a week ago, MBS revealed that the agreement with Israel is “getting closer every day,” hoping to reach a point “so that the lives of the Palestinians are easier and Israel is an actor in the Middle East.” “. Shortly before, Netanyahu declared that “the Palestinians must be part of the agreement with Saudi Arabia but they must not have a veto to prevent it.”
“Those who think that peace can prevail in the Middle East without the Palestinian people enjoying their full, legitimate and national rights would be mistaken,” responded Abu Mazen at the UN lectern.
Labyrinth of interests
Beyond the declared objective of keeping alive the possibility of an agreement based on two states, Biden needs important concessions towards the Palestinians to convince the most leftist sector of the Democratic Party to support the pact with a figure as controversial as MBS who will also represent a prize for a country (Israel) that he usually harshly criticizes. and then to achieve the majority (67), he will seek the vote of 17 senators from the Republican Party who do not favor uranium enrichment in Saudi Arabia nor give the rival candidate a success a few months before the elections in the United States.. To do this, Biden needs the Israeli-Saudi agreement and Netanyahu's pressure among Republicans.
Netanyahu, for his part, does not hide his enormous interest in an agreement that would represent an enormous diplomatic, strategic (also in the face of the common Iranian enemy), economic and political achievement (due to the unprecedented internal crisis caused by the controversial judicial reform proposal ).
For now, this Tuesday the first official and public visit of an Israeli minister (Tourism Minister, Haim Katz) to Riyadh took place on the occasion of a congress organized by the UN.
The fall of the industry and the record summer increase the weight of tourism in the economy
By land, sea and air. The spectacular recovery of international tourism last summer has been the key for the main engine of the Spanish economy to compensate for the depression in industrial activity.. Demand has absorbed the rise in prices, adjusting budgets but without giving up their vacations: hotel occupancy has reached maximum levels and airports, cruise ships and railway operators have raised their activity figures to double digits.
Thus, in 2023 tourism will continue the same role of “supporting growth” with which the Bank of Spain has described it since the recovery of 2022.. The evolution of the Spanish economy as a whole last year was already driven more by the reactivation of visits by international travelers than by industrial activity.. In 2023 take the same path. Already before the summer, while the profits of industrial companies sank by 40% until June, tourism contributed a balance of 5.5 billion euros to the balance of payments, with growth rates of 16% in income and 12% in payments while non-tourist goods and services showed a surplus of 600 million.
Your contribution is being decisive in improving the financing capacity of the economy. So much so that while they highlight its great moment, investment banks and economists point it out as a risk. “Tourism represents a tenth of the total production of services in the Spanish economy, which represents a potential weakness,” indicated the rating agency S&P when analyzing the health of the Spanish economy..
For CaixaBank Research, dependence on tourism has been positive in 2023 but it may not be so positive next year due to the contraction in spending promoted by the European Central Bank and the poor situation of the two main clients: the United Kingdom and Germany.. “We expect the headwinds to come into play especially towards the end of 2023 and during 2024, a year for which we expect positive but more moderate growth in tourism GDP due to the complex macroeconomic outlook, greater price competition from other destinations in the Mediterranean, and the risk that both domestic and European tourism will once again travel to more distant destinations,” explains its analyst David Cesar Heymann.
Perhaps a contraction of the main economic engine with other sectors such as the industrial sector in full depression since 2021 due to the energy crisis will reactivate the debate that was opened precisely then, when institutions such as CEOE or the Elcano Institute demanded a change in the productive model that has not occurred..
At Funcas, Elisa Chulia indicates that the sector has learned from shocks such as the pandemic, but that it will not be easy to replace English and German tourists with others from third markets.. “The productive model is a debate that already occurred in 2011 due to the excessive weight of construction. Now we have had a golden opportunity to execute it with European funds but it gives the impression that this is not the case,” he laments.. “As long as this continues, the only thing we can do is be grateful for the power of the tourism sector.”
In fact, 2023 will be a new record year in terms of tourism income, a progression that resumes the pre-pandemic trajectory.. Until June, at the threshold of the high season, there were already 35.6 billion, 7 billion more than in the same period of the previous year.. And, thanks to the fact that national tourism has maintained demand along with the boom in foreign tourism, the peak of the season this summer has been so high that it has even sparked debate in the sector itself about the need to regulate capacity limits. of the industry in territories that are bordering on saturation, such as the Balearic Islands.
The summer of 2023 has been one of intense activity in all means of transport, with nearly 100 million trips calculated by the General Directorate of Traffic. In August, Aena airports received nearly 30 million passengers, 10% more than last year, which has supported a 19% growth in activity at the network manager despite the escalation in airline prices.. Activity has been especially explosive in cruise ships, a means of transport that is growing extraordinarily in the ports of Barcelona, Valencia, Palma and A Coruña.. In total, cruise ships disembarked 1.2 million passengers in ports last August, 65% more than a year ago. And in the case of the railway, high-speed long-distance passenger transport also grew by double digits, with which companies such as Renfe, Ouigo or Iryo benefited from the tourism boom at a higher rate than in other years..
In total, according to the National Statistics Institute, the total expenditure made by international tourists visiting Spain in July reached 13,853 million euros in July, which represents an increase of 16.4% compared to the same month in 2022 and a 16% above that of the same month of 2019.
The strong growth of this item is due more to the increase in prices than to the demand of travelers. While the average expenditure per tourist rose to 1,367 euros, 4.4% more, the average daily expenditure grew by 9%, to 185 euros.. This difference is explained because, without giving up vacations, tourists have shortened their stay in Spain to an average of 7.4 days.
The Spanish countryside raises prices by 16%, the third highest increase in the EU, despite lowering its inputs by 8%
Spanish farmers and ranchers raised their sales prices by 16.2% year-on-year in the second quarter of the year, the third sharpest increase in the European Union, despite the fact that the inputs they need in their production process became 8% cheaper. % year-on-year, according to data published this Tuesday by Eurostat.
This means that although Spain is the ninth country in which the costs of goods used in agricultural production decreased the most (fertilizers, electricity, fuel, feed, etc.), our country was the third country in which the price increased the most. farm workers are paid at the door of their farm, something that the community statistics office attributes to the drought suffered this year. In fact, the two countries that registered increases in agricultural prices higher than Spain were Portugal (where they became more expensive by 21.8%) and Greece (+20.9%), also very affected by extreme weather conditions, while on average in the EU the increase was 2.4%.
This is the increase in prices at origin, to which must be added the increase that has occurred in each of the links in the chain until the product reaches the final consumer.. Given that there is a time lag between when the agricultural product leaves the field and until it is purchased in the supermarket, it is possible that this increase in prices reaches the customer some time later.
Although a year-on-year increase of 16.8% is a considerable increase in price compared to the previous year, the inflation of agricultural products has been moderating in recent quarters: between January and March of this year they were 33.2% more expensive than in the same period of the previous year; in the fourth quarter of 2022 they rose 26.1%; in the third, 34.4%; in the second, 18.8%, and we must go back to the first quarter of 2022 to find a lower decrease than the current one (15.6%).
The agricultural products in which Spain has registered a price increase higher than the European average have been citrus fruits, which have become more expensive by 128.7% compared to the previous year, an increase only surpassed by that experienced in Italy (141. ,2%); olive oil, which from April to June accumulated an increase of 69.7% year-on-year, only surpassed by that experienced in Portugal (+72%); or milk, which has increased at origin by 30.4%, the second largest increase after that registered in Greece (31.7%).
Also notable in Spain is the increase in potatoes (49.5%), eggs (37.7%) and pork (+26.8%).
First cost drop since 2020
These increases in prices have occurred despite the fact that farmers' and ranchers' costs fell in the second quarter for the first time since the pandemic.. In fact, Spain is among the countries in which the price of some goods such as electricity has fallen the most, with a decrease of 48.5%, only surpassed by that of the Netherlands (51.01%); or veterinary expenses, which have increased by 2.5%, the fifth most moderate increase in the EU.
Other inputs such as fertilizers fell by 19% year-on-year in the second quarter, while feed became cheaper by 20%, although in other EU countries the decline has been greater.
Although their costs were lower than those they had a year ago, the drop in production caused by the drought has led farm workers to raise their price and charge much more for the product than last year.
Since the pandemic, food has accumulated an increase of 22.8% until 2022, to which must be added the expected increase of 11% for this year and additional price increases in 2024 and 2025, which the Bank of Spain places at 4 % and 2.4%, respectively, with a significant upward risk if weather conditions worsen. These increases mainly affect low-income people, since they allocate a greater proportion of their consumption to food.
Ana's therapy against follicular lymphoma that Fran longs for: "We just have to wait for Health to give the green light to the last resort"
They are the face and the cross of follicular lymphoma. Ana's big eyes express joy: “I am here thanks to research.”. I've had cancer in remission for two years.”. Perhaps, a contained happiness, because in front of her, in conversation, the two c
Atopic dermatitis, a skin problem that has psychological effects
What happens when your skin rebels against you? The case of atopic dermatitis is much more than a skin rash. It's a daily fight against itch, pain and shame, and more common than you think. It is one of the most common inflammatory pathologies, affecting 20% of children and 10% of adults.. But, even so, there is great ignorance about the enormous impact that this disease has on the lives of patients.
“The skin is the way in which we relate to the environment and what happens with atopic dermatitis is that an immunological disorder occurs that causes this barrier to alter, react by thickening and fighting brutally,” explains Pablo Coto. , dermatologist at the Vital Álvarez Buylla Hospital in Mieres. Most of the diagnoses occur at an early age, between three and twelve months, while in adults it is more complex, because “sometimes it reappears after having disappeared as a child or because it is an adult when they have their first episode,” details.
The main symptom of this dysfunction is, without a doubt, itching, which causes the need to scratch the skin to try to relieve it, which triggers a continuous cycle of itching and scratching.. This is the trigger for a series of consequences that affect daily activities such as sleep, work and studies.. Not in vain, half of adults with this condition have sleep disturbances an average of 162 nights a year and, at least 87%, have problems falling asleep almost always.
The psychological toll that is paid carries a high price. “Anxiety, depression, isolation, frustration and even self-medication occur, with abuse of substances such as marijuana to make the itch go away,” says the expert.. According to the Spanish Society of Allergology and Clinical Immunology, these types of problems occur in up to 50% of patients.. And not only that. It must be taken into account that people with atopic dermatitis have a higher risk of developing other atopic disorders such as asthma, rhinitis or food allergies.
Beyond all of the above, Coto highlights the high degree of social trivialization that surrounds this disease, since many people consider it mild and that it only affects the skin.. He also believes that there is a “lack of education and re-education of primary care doctors when treating the patient” and that “sometimes it is diagnosed without having it, in addition to the fact that a soap and other products business has been set up. that trivialize it,” he asserts.
While this problem has persisted over time, Coto warns that the incidence of the disease has tripled in recent decades due to several factors.. Among them, urbanization and hygiene theory, which suggests that less exposure to allergens in childhood may increase predisposition to disease.. They have also had to do with it, he says, the alteration of the intestinal microbiota due to changes in diet and medications, and the fact that the availability of treatments has led to an increase in diagnoses.
NOTABLE PROGRESS
The encouraging aspect lies in the great advances recorded, thanks to better knowledge of the disease.. “Drugs have been developed that are monoclonal antibodies and small molecules that attack or inhibit proteins specifically inherited in patients with atopic dermatitis and that give a high hope of living without it,” explains Coto.
For this reason, he believes that it is very important that an adequate identification be made, to refer the patient early to the specialist and find the ideal treatment: “You have to be aware that you can be well, thanks to therapeutic alternatives with which to modify the course of the disease without having to resign.”
This ambition, he clarifies, must be shared by the dermatologist: “You cannot be satisfied with relieving the patient, but you must go further and address the remission of the disease and fight for therapeutic alternatives, because they are rare drugs that, unfortunately, They do not have the same accessibility in all Spanish communities for economic reasons.
The discrepancy between what the doctor and the patient see continues to be one of the challenges to be faced. “Perhaps the dermatologist perceives that the affected body surface has gone from 30% to 10%, but does not take into account that the person's priority is to alleviate the symptoms, because they are still not sleeping and scratching,” he warns.. This, he adds, is what highlights the need to incorporate common tools and records for evaluation and measurement of results and reported experiences.
He also perceives it as essential to improve psychosocial care for the sick, for which he sees virtual worlds and the metaverse as a solution for the future.. In fact, he has already led the first meeting with patients through a tool that, he hopes, will become the new ally in their fight against this disease.
Fernando Valladares, ecologist: "Scientists are 'black-leg' activists because we understand the implications of what is happening"
Fernando Valladares (Mar de Plata, Argentina, 1965) is one of the great communicators of climate change. The biologist, ecologist and CSIC researcher, winner of the BBVA Foundation Prize for Biodiversity Conservation, has been lavish in recent years in the mainstream media and on social networks, but until now he had never faced the challenge of condensing his knowledge, intuitions and hopes in an informative book. Recivilization (Destino) gives the title to its firm commitment to a different future, with its feet firmly rooted in the present and reviewing “the challenges, setbacks and motivations” of this turbulent 21st century.
Will the extreme summer of 2023 be the new normal? The word normal does not fit anywhere. Everything is going to be very changeable and very variable, and we are going to continue breaking temperature records at a very high speed, to a certain extent unpredictable.. We have had a series of summers in a row that are not normal at all; They are rather extraordinary for what has happened in the last century and a half, since when we have records and instrumentation. We have been able to calculate what the temperatures have been in the last 100,000 years, and even on that scale it is not normal at all. We are in an exponential phase. Although one thing seems certain: with all the heat we have been through, we are going to remember these summers as the coolest of those yet to live. Do we have to be prepared for devastating storms like Daniel, after what we have seen in Libya? It has been a real catastrophe, not only in Libya, but also in Greece. Everything happened in a chain, from the cold drop and the DANA that we had in Spain. The intensity of rainfall can only be explained by an extraordinarily warm sea, and that is what is happening in the Mediterranean. We have now had record temperatures in the world's seas for three years. And the thermal anomaly cannot be explained by El Niño alone (the natural warming phenomenon of the Pacific). In temperate zones, tropical cyclones are being declared, and the term medicanes or Mediterranean hurricanes has already been coined.. It will happen more and more frequently. Stored heat makes precipitation more torrential and catastrophic. And this is an effect of climate change. Don't we run the risk of turning climate change into the scapegoat for all evils? Of course we run that risk, and of simplifying things so much that in the end everything is climate change, with which “nothing is climate change”, and in the end we feed denialism and hoaxes. But a society that does not assume the level of risk we are in will pay dearly for the consequences, we are already paying them.. We live in a conformist and self-soothing society, and this is where scientists come and worry people with news about climate change.. But we are going to need not only scientists, but also sociologists, psychologists or anthropologists to see how we manage this risk, and how we also deal with the uncertainties that await us along the way.. There are risks, but you have to assume them. And one of them is to trust scientists. There is also the risk of not trusting scientists when perhaps they are the only ones who can get us out of this mess.. Society has the last word. North American climatologist Patrick T. Brown recently sparked controversy by confessing that he cherry-picked the data to conclude that climate change had increased the risk of fires in California to “maximize” the chances of seeing his study published in Nature.. The question was asked by the Los Angeles Times: Can we trust scientists? I would respond with a counterquestion.. Who wants to question trust in scientists? Undoubtedly, there are scientists of all colors, just as there are people who are not willing to listen to the truth.. There are also people who believe that science is exact and unanimous.. It must be emphasized in passing that climate change is a very complex issue, and that in science there are many nuances. Who wants to trust the nuances? Or in the resounding statement of some scientist who claims to pronounce himself in a very striking way? I believe that society generally trusts scientists, and we see surveys in all countries in which they are among the most highly valued professionals.. In companies, there are those who trust scientists and those who are not interested. And the politicians? In the sector of those who make the big decisions, there are also skeptics of scientists. But of course we can trust the scientists. When faced with key problems, they are much better prepared to analyze, make assessments and foresee the consequences of something as complex as climate change.. Now, scientists are people, and we have biases, and limitations, errors and emotions, no matter how much we pretend to be objective and neutral. Can you be a scientist and an activist at the same time? It is evident that you can be things. It is not incompatible at all, rather they are two activities that complement each other.. I remember what Einstein said: “With the privilege of knowledge comes the responsibility of action.”. In his case, he referred to the implications of nuclear energy. With the impact of climate change, I would say that scientists have a responsibility to be activists. I greatly respect scientists who are not scientists and who remain focused on the pure task of research.. But there has to be diversity, as in all changes. I also greatly respect, for example, the IPCC scientists who have turned to activism, and have spent days in jail. I have not reached that extreme, but what is happening disconcerts me, distracts me, and worries me.. I believe that scientists can go beyond mere communication and help break down inertia in society.. Our studies are often the basis of the activism of groups such as Extinction Rebellion or Fridays by Future. I would even say that we are “blackleg” activists, because we understand the implications of what is happening. How many times have you been called an alarmist or fatalist? More alarmist than fatalist…. But when I sound the alarm, I always put the counterpoint and warn that the window is closing, as if implying that we still have room for action.. Although it is more of a metaphorical idea, since we are looking at an old window that does not close properly, and there will always be gaps left.. What does close is the window open to great opportunities to keep the climate within the security zone. And how much time do we have? There are many studies trying to establish a date of no return. I would say we have a decade left to take climate change very seriously. Every time we have to do more things in less time. Although I am not in favor of setting our objectives in stone either.. Sustainability is a process, not a goal that we have to impose ourselves with a business perspective. It's not bad to have a goal, but we're not going to put it around our neck like a noose.. Recivilizing is also putting the focus on the process, truly living in the present, which is the only thing we have. In your book you talk about three possible scenarios: extinction/collapse, authoritarianism and transformation. Which do you think is the most likely? Personally, what do you think? What excites me the most and makes me get out of bed every day is the idea that the transformation we need is still possible. But that depends on the level of euphoria or optimism you have that day.. I still see strands of common sense in society that point towards that path, although I don't always see it clearly.. I hope that this dynamic and transformative horizon ends up emerging, that is why I have written this book. Recivilization begins, however, by confirming this declaration of “war against us and against nature” in which we are. It is a call to take advantage of this historical situation in the that we live in, in which many things are happening and will happen, pleasant and unpleasant, terrible and peaceful, and in which more and more changes are going to occur. My intention has been to raise questions that affect the essence of civilization. We know that we are in a critical moment, and in the face of this we can remain impassive and cling to the status quo or, as I propose in the book, take advantage of the opportunity to become “civilized” again.. Civilization is ultimately a will, a human objective, and we have done it wrong. We have set ourselves a course of conflict and collapse, we have adopted a belligerent, aggressive and violent attitude that is turning against us. The time has come to call a truce and turn the way we do things upside down. Among other “basic decisions” that the book raises is that of degrowth, a word that scares many people. It is normal for people to twist the gesture when you hear decrease, I would be surprised if they didn't do it. From the moment we are born, we grow, and we are weighed and measured to verify it.. Growing has always meant earning more, the formula for individual success. How are you going to convince people that decreasing collectively can be the new measure of success? I try in the book with several narratives, I try to be kind, present arguments that encourage complicity and empathy, and make people see everything that there is to gain from degrowth.. But of course it is a topic that raises blisters, and there are those who prefer to call it post-growth. I prefer to talk about degrowth because it is a term that does not raise doubts.. As a scientist, I am in favor of saying things clearly: we are talking about cooling GDP, reducing production and reducing consumption. What can I do to change the world? The long road from personal changes to collective action. We have made the road longer in recent decades because we have stopped living in society.. We are a collection of individuals, where the individual is rewarded and where it is difficult for us to put ourselves in the context of society.. To change this civilization, we have to agree on some essential things. We have gone too far by valuing individuality, which has to be communal for society to prosper.. We must find a balance. When one launches into environmental activism, one must be well armed psychologically. We must not forget about personal care, because the path begins precisely with ourselves.. What we also cannot do is fall into eco-anxiety or depression, and remain blocked precisely because of the knowledge we have.. We need everyone to push to change the world. Are climate summits useful for anything? What can we expect from COP28 in Dubai, taking into account that oil is playing at home? It is not lost on anyone that COP28 is going to be a gigantic exercise in hypocrisy. A lot of money is going to be spent to make people believe that we are better than we are, and to ensure that fossil fuel companies do not fail, because we continue to think that they are essential and that we have to continue burning until there is not a drop left. more oil. Now, hypocrisy sometimes has good things, because it allows us to reconcile contradictory bets, such as those of environmentalists and oil companies.. A little hypocrisy can grease diplomacy. But I also fear that COP28 could polarize positions, in this context of geopolitical tension and distrust in institutions.. At least I hope that a way is found to finance the global south, to be able to deal with disasters like the one we have seen in Libya.
La Recivilización, by Fernando Valladares, is now on sale (Editorial Destino). You can buy it here.
They arrest a woman in Vitoria for indoctrinating her children and other minors in jihadism
At least one woman was arrested this Tuesday in Vitoria in an operation against jihadism carried out by the Civil Guard and which remains open, investigation sources have confirmed to EFE.. The arrested woman, of Spanish nationality and converted to Islam, was apparently carrying out recruitment work. The detainee indoctrinated several minors, including her children, and used social networks for her criminal activity.
The operation takes place in the Zabalgana neighborhood of Vitoria, where several Civil Guard units have been deployed.. The police operation has been carried out since the first hour of today with the search of the apartment occupied by the detainee with her children.. Neighbors in the area have warned of possible arrests not confirmed by either the Civil Guard or the Delegation of the Government of Spain in the Basque Country.
The Government Delegation in the Basque Country has not offered any information about the operation since, according to sources from this organization, it is under summary secrecy.