The Anti-Corruption Prosecutor “does not oppose” the suspension of José Antonio Griñán's imprisonment. The Public Ministry thus supports the application of article 80.4 of the Criminal Code, which empowers judges to cancel the entry into prison of a convicted person if he suffers a “very serious illness and incurable conditions”. And that is exactly what the latest forensic report issued by the Institute of Legal Medicine of Seville defends after the review that the former president of the Junta de Andalucía had on June 6 to elucidate the stage in which prostate cancer is found. who was diagnosed at the end of the year.

The delegated prosecutors in matters of Anti-Corruption in Seville, Juan Enrique Egocheaga and Manuel Fernández Guerra, have already opened the door to the application of the aforementioned article in the previous pronouncement. In fact, they asked the coroner to clarify whether Griñán's medical situation fit the requirements established in 80.4 of the Penal Code. And that is what the optional María Ángeles Dichas did in her letter of June 16, where she verified that the entry of the former leader of the Andalusian PSOE into the Seville I prison is “inadvisable”..

In the first report, he already positioned himself in this sense, but he admitted that the stage of the disease and the incipient nature of the treatment did not allow him to make a definitive opinion.. For this reason, the Prosecutor's Office proposed the suspension of the entry into prison until the former president finished the radiotherapy sessions. The treatment took place between February and March, for which reason the Public Ministry asked the coroner for a new evaluation, since the remaining treatment was “pharmacological”.. The second coroner's report defended that Griñán was still “very serious” and that the treatment had caused side effects that required “close monitoring”.. But he insisted on the uncertainty about the evolution of the disease and the effects that imprisonment could have on him..

The third clarification, from June 16, was already explicit. And that is why the Prosecutor's Office has also clarified its position in a brief letter signed this Wednesday. The Andalusian PP, as a private prosecution, must also pronounce shortly. But the final decision is in the hands of the First Section of the Seville Court, the court that sentenced the former Andalusian president and other senior socialist officials of the Board for their participation in the case of fraudulent EREs.. Griñán faces a sentence of six years in prison and special disqualification for the crimes of embezzlement and prevarication.

The Supreme Court confirmed last July the sentence of the Court of Seville and in the sentence, which was made public in September, it assumed the theses of the investigating judge, Mercedes Alaya. Griñán's conviction responds to his role as Minister of Finance in the governments of Manuel Chaves, since he was the one who provided the credit for the payment of fraudulent aid. What was judged in the procedure was the creation and use of an aid distribution formula devised within the Ministry of Employment and that allowed the irregular distribution of up to 680 million euros between 2000 and 2008.

Of the high officials convicted, only José Antonio Griñán remains out of jail. The rest of the former members of the Andalusian Government entered different prisons between the end of 2022 and the beginning of 2023. This is the case of the former Minister of Finance Carmen Martínez Aguayo, the former Minister of Employment José Antonio Viera and Antonio Fernández, the former Minister of Innovation Francisco Vallejo and former senior officials Miguel Ángel Serrano Aguilar, Jesús Rodríguez Román and Agustín Barberá. The latter, former Deputy Minister of Employment, also suffers from an illness, but the Court decided that he could continue treatment in prison. Also, keep in mind that Viera has recently received the third degree.

The judge investigating the cause of the process in the Supreme Court, Pablo Llarena, has issued a national arrest warrant against the MEP and former Minister of Education Clara Ponsatí.

After five years on the run for her involvement in the illegal referendum, Ponsatí returned to Spain on March 28 and was arrested in Barcelona. The former minister was released that same day and Llarena agreed to summon her on April 24 to notify her of her prosecution for a crime of disobedience, but she no longer attended the appointment. “He has voluntarily and unjustifiably neglected the judicial summons”, criticizes the magistrate in his resolution. The same morning that she was summoned in the Supreme Court, Ponsatí tweeted a photograph in Flanders, and Llarena does not ignore this fact either: “He boasted of having no intention of attending the judicial summons”.

The independence leader chooses to challenge the Supreme Court after benefiting from the government reform that repeals sedition. Until last January, the magistrate kept her on trial for sedition, which in 2019 came to be punished with 11 and a half years in prison for the former president of Parliament, Carme Forcadell. However, when this crime was repealed, the magistrate went on to prosecute her for disobedience, which does not entail prison sentences, only a fine and disqualification from holding public office..

If the ex-minister appears voluntarily and personally, as happened with the also prosecuted Meritxel Serret and Anna Gabriel, Llarena will revoke the arrest warrant, but rejects her arguments that she could not attend because of her work as an MEP: “The defense had a wide margin to warn this instructor (…) and request the readjustment in the citation that he considered necessary”, criticizes. “This provision was evaded and it was decided to present an exculpatory document that has not been followed by any proposal to attend to the judicial appeal later”.

Immunity, at the center of the debate

Ponsatí's challenge to the Supreme Court also serves as an advance for a hypothetical return of the former president of the Generalitat Carles Puigdemont. The ex-minister's defense clings to the fact that she enjoys immunity as a MEP and maintains that the Supreme Court must suspend the proceedings against her, which serves Puigdemont to test the scope of the special protection provided by her seat in Brussels.

“Once the procedure for protection of the privileges and immunities of Ms.. Clara Ponsatí i Obiols, the jurisprudence of the Court of Justice of the European Union (…) obliges the Hon.. Investigating Magistrate to suspend the judicial procedure”, argued his defense in the letter sent to the Supreme.

In the order notified this Wednesday, Llarena discards this reasoning and points out that the defense relies on a sentence of the Grand Chamber of the High Court of Justice of the European Union that addresses a different situation: “In the indicated sentence an alleged in which a European parliamentarian hoped to be protected by a privilege of absolute immunity”, explains. “He considered that it was inviolable because the judicial claim started in opinions or statements supposedly expressed by the defendant in the exercise of his parliamentary function”.

With Ponsatí, however, the procedure focuses on the role he played during 1-O, that is, on “the immunity that members of the European Parliament can enjoy for any crime outside their function and in the territory of the State for which they were appointed”. Taking this difference into account, “the European Parliament (by provision of the European regulation itself) cannot extend the scope of immunity with respect to what is provided for in state regulations”, which allows issuing a national arrest warrant against the former minister.

One more year, after a new inspection of the more than 8,000 kilometers of the Spanish coasts, Ecologistas en Acción has presented the Black Flags 2023 report, which awards a total of 48 badges: two per province and/or autonomous city, one flag due to pollution and another due to poor environmental management of the coast.

“Year after year we observe problems similar to the previous ones, although without a doubt one of the biggest problems we face is the touristification and urbanization of our coastline”, they indicate from the organization. Thus, among the reasons that carry a black flag are discharges, deficiencies in sanitation systems and serious purification problems; chemical, light and acoustic pollution or the accumulation of marine debris, among others.

These are the 48 #BanderasNegras2023 that we have awarded this year to bring to light the problems of pollution and mismanagement of the coast of the Spanish State. More information in the full report.

👉🏾 https://t.co/jrblGlN50m

We open thread. 🧵🌊https://t.co/GUmcsYc5JX

– Ecologists in Action (@ecologistas) June 14, 2023

On this occasion, from Ecologistas en Acción they highlight a problem that until now they had not denounced. It is about the proliferation of designated dog beaches without a prior environmental impact assessment. “For designating the beach of A Calzoa as a dog beach, without having foreseen the serious environmental impact that has been generated, a black flag is awarded to the Vigo City Council”, they highlight.. Walking with dogs through natural environments has become a very popular activity around the world, “which raises a series of environmental problems and challenges that must be addressed responsibly by administrations and society,” they add..

Black Flag Beaches in Andalusia

The coast of Andalusia has ten black spots in the five coastal provinces. The pollution and environmental mismanagement of the coast, together with the touristification and urbanization of the coast, put these ten enclaves in the spotlight.

• Huelva: La Antilla Beach (Urbanization) and Ría de Huelva (Discharges)
• Cádiz: Tarifa (urban projects) and Vejer (pollution in El Palmar and invasive occupation of the coast)
• Malaga: Coastal path and light pollution in Malaga
• Granada: Playa de La Herradura (urban planning) and Pozuelo (affects biodiversity)
• Almería: Algarrobico (urban planning) and Roquetas (marine litter)

Fortunately, not all of it is bad news and there are some cases of improvements that have been achieved thanks to citizen mobilization and reports like this one.. Not all administrations turn a deaf ear to popular pressure and mobilization, “and they act so slowly that the changes are barely appreciable,” they point out.. Two examples of this in Andalusia are the future construction of the new treatment plant in Barbate (Cádiz) and the repair of the outfall plus the works to set up the tertiary treatment in Roquetas de Mar (Almería)..

• Where is a holiday in Spain for San Juan 2023?
• Happy San Juan night! Phrases to congratulate the bonfires

We arrived in the middle of June and in A Coruña that means that the festival of San Juan or San Xoán, as it is known in Galician, is approaching.. The fire in the bonfires on the beach will once again be the protagonist during the night from Friday to Saturday, which completes a week of activities.

As in many parts of Spain, the night of San Juan, the shortest of the year, comes accompanied by great rituals and acts in search of luck. The sardines and barbecues will once again be present in the different points throughout the municipality of A Coruña during the traditional witch's night.

As has been announced, the A Coruña City Council, which will distribute more than 150 tons of wood, opts in 2023 for the motto “San Xoán. Keep me on”. It will be an act in which more than 650 troops will act as security in a night where the eyes will be on the large bonfires of the Riazor beach, with several accesses to the promenade closed from 7:00 p.m. on Friday.

But the festivities for San Juan already began the previous weekend, with activities from last Friday June 16 until the night of Friday the 23rd for Saturday June 24, in which most of them will take place, being the concert of Short Celts the great colophon.

San Juan 2023 in A Coruña: schedule and concerts

Wednesday, June 21

• Concert by the Abegondo Music Band

🎸 Celtas Cortos will perform at 12:15 p.m. the night of San Xoán on the Riazor esplanade

Here, all the programming of #SanXoán2023 👇 pic.twitter.com/OaH3DszcCy

– Coruña City Council (@ConcelloCoruna) June 16, 2023

Thursday, June 22

• Distribution of flowers for the Tribute Day to A Coruña Woman
• Tribute to Las Meigas 2023: Emilia Pardo Bazán, Teresa Herrera, Juana de Vega and Concepción Arenal
• Arca Music Band Concert

Friday, June 23

• Tribute to King Alfonso IX
• Entourage of the witches 2023
• Tribute to Brigadier Diego del Barco
• Hail Our Lady of the Rosary
• Tribute to Maria Pita
• Ignition and blessing of the fire of San Xoán
• San Juan bonfires on Riazor beach
• Fireworks show
• burning of the fault
• Short Celts concert

Like every June, the Spanish welcome summer and with it, the long hours of daylight. Although you have to wait until June 21 to receive this station, there is a holiday that marks us that longer periods of time in the sun and enjoying the beach have returned to our lives, and this is the Night of San Juan.

As with other local festivities, this event is celebrated on the same day each year, although not always in the same way.. The Night of San Juan is a festivity with pagan roots and comes from an ancient tradition that coincides with the summer solstice, the night of June 23-24.. The main rite consisted of a cult of the sun and the lengthening of the day. A bonfire was lit with the purpose of giving more strength to the sun, which was shortening the days until the arrival of the winter solstice.

Traditionally, on the Night of San Juan, the summer solstice is celebrated with nocturnal pagan rituals and bonfires to welcome summer. Later, Christianity adopted this tradition in its calendar, and for this reason, it is related to the birth of Saint John..

It is because of the theories that surround this celebration, that tonight is celebrated as a magical moment to scare away evil spirits and materialize good wishes through various rites such as jumping over bonfires, bathing in the sea at dusk, washing one's face or hands. hands, among others.

Where is San Juan a holiday?

Although this festivity is celebrated by the Spanish, not all the autonomous communities consider this day a holiday, since it varies depending on the day of the week on which this celebration falls. This 2023, the night of June 23 to 24 falls from Friday to Saturday. Now, the festival of the saint, San Juan, only falls on Friday.

Despite the popularity of the celebration, it is not a national holiday, since it is only recognized as a holiday in two communities: the Valencian Community and Catalonia at the regional level, while at the local level it will be a holiday in the city of Albacete as well as in some Galician cities. In the case of the last one, and according to the resolution of the Xunta de Galicia, Galicians will only be free from work if they reside in:

A Coruña:

• Carballo (June 24)
• Cerceda (June 23)
• Coruña province (June 24)
• Walls (June 24)

Lugo:

• Guitiriz (June 24)

Ourense:

• Fathernda (June 23)
• San Xoán de Río (June 23)

To enjoy the next holiday in all of Spain, you will have to wait until August 15, the day of the Virgin of the Assumption, which will take place on Tuesday.

Now that summer is starting, it is worth doing a review of some of the most important popular summer festivals in our country.. Spain stands out for the cultural richness of its traditional festivities, with numerous and varied examples of celebrations that are worth discovering.. Throughout the summer season, there are many festivals worth discovering and enjoying..

These are some of the most important and essential, which are carried out in various areas of the Spanish geography. We are going to discuss them and remember when and where they are celebrated, in chronological order starting with the ones around the corner.

San Juans night

• Date: Night of June 23
• Where it is held: In different parts of Spain, with special relevance in Alicante

Summer starts with this festivity, very popular in certain parts of Spain, especially the coastal ones.. It is traditional that bonfires are lit on the beaches on the night of June 23, the eve of the day on which the birth of Saint John the Baptist is commemorated.. Although there are these obvious connections with Christianity, many also point out that the night of San Juan takes elements from a pagan tradition that consisted of lighting bonfires on the occasion of the summer solstice..

In any case, the place par excellence to celebrate San Juan in Spain is the beach of Alicante. Since the days before, the city is full of atmosphere to celebrate this festival with parades, music and other activities, and more than 200 papier-mâché monuments end up being burned.. But it is not the only place in Spain where San Juan is lived with intensity, and it is also celebrated in a big way in locations such as Malaga, A Coruña, Girona or Menorca, among many others, and even in inland places such as San Pedro Manrique ( Soria), where the traditional Paso del Fuego takes place, in which its inhabitants walk barefoot over incandescent embers without getting burned.

Haro Wine Battle

• Date: June 29
• Where it is held: Haro (La Rioja)

Haro is the most important municipality in the elaboration of Rioja wine, and this celebration, recognized as a Festival of National Interest, reflects that culture well.. In commemoration of the death of the patron saint of the city, San Felices de Bilibio, participants throw wine at each other, using tools such as water guns. It's important to wear clothes that you don't mind getting dirty too much, for obvious reasons, and it's also a good idea to wear low-cost sunglasses so you don't get wine in your eyes.

sanfermines

• Date: From July 6 to 15
• Where it takes place: Pamplona

It is the most famous and recognizable popular festival of the Spanish summer. For more than a week, the streets of Pamplona are filled with partying, with hundreds of thousands of people coming to the city to enjoy its gastronomy, tour the city with a very intense atmosphere and participate in its activities, among which are the iconic running of the bulls. Although the latter is the best known and most identifying part of the Sanfermines, it is increasingly being questioned by some, due to the use made of animals and the danger it entails for people..

The Sanfermines begin with the traditional “chupinazo”, which consists of launching a rocket from Pamplona City Hall on July 6 at noon. This act marks the beginning of the celebrations, which do not cease until midnight on the 15th..

Jumilla Wine Festival

• Date: From August 11 to 20
• Where it is celebrated: Jumilla (Murcia)

Declared of Regional Tourist Interest, this festival celebrates the important wine culture of Jumilla, which has one of the most recognized denominations of origin in Spain.. Floats that pour wine into the mouths of the people as they pass, the ritual of treading the grape, or a series of tastings, tastings and contests, are some of the activities that you will find in Jumilla on those days.

Malaga's carnival

• Date: From August 12 to 19
• Where it takes place: Malaga

This popular festival commemorates the capture of Málaga by the Catholic Monarchs, and includes fireworks, folkloric shows, concerts, bullfights, Andalusian gastronomy and wine tasting, and many other activities that make this week very special for both Malaga residents as well as for the tourists who come to see the Fair.

The Tomatina

• Date: August 30
• Where it is held: Buñol (Valencia)

On the last Wednesday of August, this particular festival takes place in the Valencian town of Buñol, in which the people who participate throw tomatoes at each other until they end up completely red.. It is said that the origins of this celebration date back to 1945, when there was a spontaneous fight in the middle of a parade with vegetables in between.. The neighbors enjoyed it so much that they replicated it in later years.. Although at first the police and the authorities tried to ban it, it ended up becoming the most emblematic event of the town.

The party starts at 10 in the morning, and many have been partying since the night before, known as “la de la empalma”, with numerous beach bars and venues open for the occasion. Around 130 tons of tomatoes are distributed among the attendees, who with their throws end up generating red rivers that flow through the streets of Buñol.

Malaga is a few hours away from meeting face to face with its immediate future. Paris hosts this Wednesday the decision on the venue for the 2027 International Exhibition, an event in which the Malaga candidacy competes with a sustainability project for large cities and which is considered key in the transformation of a city whose national and international projection is has multiplied in recent years.

Four other candidatures choose to organize an event that will be announced after 2:15 p.m.. The Malaga delegation will defend, for the third and last time, its proposal The urban age: towards the sustainable city before the delegates of the 172 assembly of the Bureau International des Expositions (BIE). They will be followed by Bariloche (Argentina), Minnesota (USA), Phuket (Thailand) and Belgrade (Serbia), respectively, at an event to be held at Le Palais des Congrès.

It is expected that the representatives of the Malacitana candidacy —supported by four institutions: Málaga City Council, the central government, the Junta de Andalucía and the Provincial Council— will speak at 9:35 a.m. and during their presentation they will delve into the leitmotiv of their proposal. A theme that concerns all countries and organizations on a global scale: the sustainability of cities in the face of their foreseeable increase in inhabitants in the coming years.

“In the almost two decades that would separate this Expo from the one held in Shanghai in 2010, dedicated to the future of cities, the world population will grow by 1,600 million people who will mostly settle in cities. That is to say, in 2050, more than three quarters of the world population will live in cities and it is necessary to reflect on how to make demographic growth and sustainability compatible”, has remarked the Malaga City Council.

If the Malaga candidacy were chosen, the Exhibition would take place between June 5 and September 5, 2027, and the plot on which it would be held has an area of 250,000 square meters.. This figure rises to 800,000 euros if the surrounding land is added, in which a series of infrastructures are planned that articulate part of the legacy that it would leave for the city.. The construction of 1,440 homes, at a time when its price has skyrocketed in the city, is one of the most talked about. Like the expansion of the Palace of Fairs and Congresses to meet the high demand for congresses, seminars and technical meetings that the event would generate; the new Auditorium; the Coastal Axis; the construction of the Distributor Road; the A-7054 highway or the extension of the C-2 commuter line.

The heart of the Expo would be a circular space, with a radius of 220 meters, and an area of more than 150,000 square meters, where open spaces for events, multipurpose plazas or the auditorium will be located.. This central area, in addition to the daily activities, at the end of the day will function as a large stage space where the shows that are planned will take place.. It will be endowed with shady places and, giving continuity to the topography, starting from the Merino channel that is recovered, it will be a large wooded area.

The built area inside this circle is 13,500.30 square meters, corresponding to the three thematic pavilions, each one of them focused on one of the three sub-themes: citizenship, innovation and environment.. Also included in the central part, taking advantage of the natural slope, is an amphitheater of around 4,000 meters that allows a capacity of 3,000 seated spectators.. In addition, there will be cafes or restoration and rest points.

From the nucleus, by means of two non-concentric circles, the built-up ring is developed —with an average width of 34 meters in average width— that houses the Expo pavilions on two levels.. This circle occupies a floor area of 60,000 square meters —which will be expanded depending on the forecasts of participating countries— and is crossed vertically by the eight internal communication nodes. A service car park and storage areas will be located in the basement.

3.1 million attendees

Malaga City Council highlights that the Expo is integrated into a large green lung, where the flora of each continent, of each area, is represented not only by trees, but also by shrubs, climbers and herbaceous plants, which reproduce ecosystems that are places Learning. “This space will also be one of the best legacies of Expo 2027 for the city”.

The organization anticipates that, between countries and international organizations, in addition to NGOs, there will be a total of 131 participants, to which must be added the logical presence of Spain and its 19 autonomous communities and cities.. The pavilions at your disposal will have an extension of 1,000, 750 and 500 square meters, although there will also be much larger collective exhibition areas.

The estimates made conclude that the Expo would be visited by approximately 3.1 million people that would produce around 7.5 million visits. And it is considered that there will be a number of visitors who will repeat the experience an average of 2.4 times.

The mayor of Malaga, Francisco de la Torre, before the microphones of Canal Sur, affirmed this Tuesday that he was not nervous about the crucial appointment in the French capital. “We have good feelings, a good job of coordination has been done, there is very clear support from the Crown”, as well as from the “central, regional, provincial and local government”.

The councilor stressed that the theme of the Malaga candidacy “is very good”, because the sustainability of cities is “the great challenge, or one of the great ones, of the 21st century”. “Sharing these good practices is going to be a great experience if we are chosen,” he said..

De la Torre, who in his inauguration speech said that “we have hatched and now we are going towards an even more promising future”, wanted to inoculate against a possible disappointment. Although the capital has first-class infrastructure and a powerful hotel complex, and has organized events such as the Spain-United States Forum in 2014 or the Spain-France Summit in 2017, among others, there is fear of dying on the shore, as It happened when he aspired to the European Cultural Capital, the European Medicines Agency or the America's Cup of Sailing.

Candidatures with which it was desired to make that long-awaited international leap that would put the focus on the city and which is now expected to be facilitated by the 2027 Exhibition. The mayor, however, defended that, “with Expo or without it, the Malaga brand already transcends Andalusia and Spain, sounds at a European level and has global repercussions. In the coming years that significance will be even more intense”. The city, he insisted, “is experiencing the beginning of a new stage that will be splendid”.

After several weeks with fairly widespread instability that has been giving rise to showers, storms and cooler temperatures than usual, “the situation is going to change”, according to the State Meteorological Agency (AEMET).. On Thursday, June 22, an anticyclonic situation and increasing stability will begin to dominate, which will consolidate over the following days..

The heat will begin to tighten and we can say that summer is coming. The entry of a very warm air mass from North Africa will lead to a progressive increase in temperatures in the Iberian Peninsula and the Balearic Islands, reaching values clearly higher than normal at this time of year and which will remain for a good part of the year. next week. The ascent will continue at least until the end of the week. On Saturday the heat will already be very intense in the southwest of the peninsula, with 42 degrees forecast in Córdoba and Seville and up to 41 degrees in Badajoz.

#Forecast
Pending whether the thermal rise that will take place from Thursday and that will last several days will lead to the first heat wave of the year.
We tell you here 👇https://t.co/9u8a9E7iAG pic.twitter.com/80jORlsAwa

– Eltiempo.es (@ElTiempoes) June 19, 2023

Even so, we have the front part of a trough over the western half of the Peninsula, which will encourage storms to form in the next 48 hours, especially in the northern half and in the eastern interior.. On Sunday, June 25, the most intense heat episode will be experienced. Thermometers will register 40 degrees in many areas of Extremadura, western Andalusia and even west of Castilla-La Mancha. 43 degrees could be reached in the city of Córdoba. Occasionally and in favorable areas, these maximums could be exceeded.

The first heat wave of summer?

During the weekend, 35 degrees can be easily reached and even exceeded in much of the interior of the peninsula. Cities like Palencia, Cuenca, Ávila, Zamora or even Teruel, will be around that mark. In areas of the Cantabrian Sea and in the surroundings of mountainous systems, in addition to the Canary Islands, they will remain below 30 degrees, although in the interior of Galicia they will exceed them.. The long-awaited night of San Juan, on Saturday, June 24, will be tropical in a good part of the country, since we will not drop below 20 degrees.

From AEMET they confirmed at the beginning of the week that it is still too early to affirm that we are facing the first heat wave of the summer, since the intensity, duration and extension thresholds must be exceeded. Officially in Spain, a heat wave is defined as “an episode of at least three consecutive days in which at least 10% of the weather stations record values above the threshold temperature. The threshold value corresponds to the 95% percentile of its series of maximum daily temperatures for the months of July and August for the period 1971-2000”. If it occurs, it would not be as early as that of 2022, which began on June 11 and was classified as the third in the ranking of extension, affecting 38 provinces..

The rushed call for general elections for a date as bizarre as July 23rd creates in itself a magma of completely unnecessary operational problems that disrupt the normal development of an electoral process and the lives of millions of people.. But if, in addition, the call is set just two months after municipal and regional elections, the functional confusion is added to the political one, because it forces the simultaneous development of two extremely complex and delicate processes: on the one hand, the formation of 8,000 municipal governments and 12 new autonomous governments. On the other, conducting a national general election campaign.

Curiously, the one who suffers the problem to a greater degree is the one who finds himself in the most favorable situation on the two tracks where this simultaneous game is played.. The Popular Party has been the undisputed winner of the May 28 elections and the favorite to win those of July 23. But the confluence of the post-election management of the first victory with the national campaign action necessary to secure the second places his political leadership before a devilish set of strategic decisions that get in the way of each other..

The dilemma that Feijóo and his team find themselves these days is unprecedented and is not at all easy to solve.. On the one hand, it has to manage the investitures and formation of governments in several autonomous communities in which it lacks an absolute majority, which forces an extremely uncomfortable process of negotiations with Vox, since the PSOE rejected the proposal to facilitate the Government, with general character, by force with the most votes. Obviously, he rejected it because he expected a scenario like this to be reached, with the PP entangled in half the country in a tangle of deals with the far-right party..

At the same time, it has to deploy a national campaign in which its objective is precisely to achieve a result that allows it to dispense with the presence of Vox in the Government of Spain.. This forces him to carry out a very intense electoral effort, because the purpose of imposing a single government will only become viable after 150 seats —for greater security, 160—. Today the PP has almost guaranteed victory, but it is still far from that goal. With the percentage given by the average of the reliable polls, it would be easily the first party in the country, but it would be destined to share the Government with Vox or risk its life in repeated elections..

Feijóo makes a pilgrimage through Spain and through radio and television studios announcing his firm decision to govern without Vox. But, at the same time, several of its territorial terminals have open negotiation processes with Vox, which has, at least, the capacity to maintain the pulse until the end; even beyond the end if he also dares to force a rerun of elections.

The fact is that each government pact that is closed with Vox or remains open indefinitely in a territory, or weighs down Feijóo's credit in terms of the national government. And, furthermore, it distracts its leading cadres in those territories from the task of promoting the 23-J campaign because they are absorbed in their own negotiation.

Having delivered the Valencian piece so easily has only made things more complicated. Now those of Abascal have seen that the fortress is more fragile than they thought, and they are preparing to sustain the blackmail, raise their prices and block the investiture processes until the last second, knowing that with this they are weakening Feijóo's national campaign ( in its double dimension, political and operational) and perhaps, along the way, they will receive the reward of penetrating another autonomous government. It is enough for Genoa to lose control of one of these negotiations as it did in the Valencian Community, for one of its barons to panic and give in to blackmail, or for someone at the top to hesitate at the prospect of throwing themselves into repeated elections (in which that, it is proven, there is always someone who pays the entire bill, whether they deserve it or not, as Albert Rivera can explain).

After the Valencian cocoa, comes the Extremaduran, which threatens to last until beyond July 23. Without a doubt, that is the shared purpose of the PSOE and Vox. To begin with, the Socialists have taken control of the regional Parliament Board, which means that Blanca Martín Delgado will manage the times of the investiture process from the presidency of the Chamber; and, without a doubt, it will do so in the way that causes the most damage to the electoral campaign of the PP.

Following the provisions of the Extremadura Statute, you now have 15 days to consult with the groups and propose a candidate for the investiture. Unless Vox announces its intention to support the PP candidate in this process, the president of Parliament will be fully entitled to propose Guillermo Fernández Vara as the leader of the force with the most votes on 28-M.

The Statute grants another 15 days between the appointment of the candidate and the investiture session. Thus, it is possible that we will have an investiture session for Fernández Vara around July 15, with the national campaign launched and the two right-wing parties locked in a mutual shoving lawsuit in Extremadura. Vara's investiture would not prosper except in the unlikely event that the PP decided to unilaterally apply its own doctrine and give him abstention; but the stormy investiture process would have completely eaten up the electoral campaign in that region, echoing in the rest of the country, and not precisely in the most favorable terms for Feijóo's strategy.

From there, an eternal process of two months of struggles would begin, which, in turn, would be mixed with the management of the result of the generals and the investiture of a Feijóo, presumably the winner, but in need of complementary support, with which the Extremadura litigation would become part of the negotiation package.

Now imagine that something similar is reproduced in other communities in which the investitures of the PP depend on Vox, such as Murcia and the Balearic Islands.. There they will not have the problem that the PSOE controls the process from the presidency of Parliament, but Vox is in a position to stretch the negotiating entanglement as far as the regulations allow it, to decide at the last moment whether or not to risk charging with the burden of provoking the repetition of the elections.

It is a nice exercise for a strategy master: combine the management of two simultaneous processes, starting in both from a dominant position (in one as a winner, in the other as a favourite); but that, by mutually interfering, they cause harmful short circuits that can lead to a fiasco. With the aggravating circumstance that, in the first movement (the one in Valencia), you have shot yourself in the foot and, what is worse, you have shown your weakness and have given the hand of the game to whoever is at the same time, necessarily, your necessary interlocutor and your most dangerous enemy.

I do not think that Sánchez is going to obtain any electoral advantage from his violent decision to precipitate the dissolution of Parliament, setting an extravagant date and creating a sticky mix between the formation of the autonomous governments and the electoral campaign of the generals.. But, certainly, Feijóo is facing a huge quilombo; and the country (in lowercase) a little closer to sending everyone to hell.

“The disaster in Mérida does not come from Extremadura, nor from Murcia, but from Genoa, which is sabotaging the negotiations”. Sources from the Vox leadership place the difficulties in forming a coalition government in Extremadura as part of a fight that is taking place within the right, and for which they blame the PP: “They want to kill Vox”.

This growing tension is related to the attempt of the popular to position themselves in the campaign away from those of Santiago Abascal. This is what they believe in Vox: “Feijóo will try to stage a break, and will say that he does not want to go hand in hand in any way”.

To a certain extent, the desire for Genoa responds to the need to counter the PSOE's discourse. Sánchez has framed the campaign as a fight between the best of Spain and a right-wing coalition that would lead Spain to a setback of years. If Feijóo transmitted the message that he is clearly far from Vox, he would leave Moncloa without his main asset. However, this purpose is difficult to fulfill, since the agreements in many town halls and in some communities underscore the reality of the national right and if the PP does not achieve a sufficient majority on 23-J, the coalition with Vox seems difficult to avoid..

The disappearance of the useful vote

Precisely for this reason, it is convenient to understand the other part of the electoral struggle, since the distribution of votes within the right is at stake. The desire of the PP is to capture the maximum number of votes from that ideological spectrum and, for this, it has to reduce the space of Vox. But making agreements now in all the town halls and the autonomous communities would convey to the voter the idea that voting for Vox would serve for the PP to govern; that is to say, the PP's recourse to the useful vote would disappear. And there is a substantial part of bordering voters, of those who can opt for one party or another depending on the circumstances, and if they believe that betting on Vox implies doing it for a less soft PP government, it is likely that they will give their confidence to the of Abascal.

The PP not only tries to avoid this possibility, but also aspires to have enough strength to govern alone. This is stated by Vox: “Genoa believes that it can have a majority that allows them to govern with specific pacts, for example with the PNV”. Feijóo's goal would be to get that number of deputies enough to not depend on Abascal's, and for that they need to reduce Abascal's space as much as possible. However, Vox sources insist that this movement goes beyond the purely electoral: “The approach, which is a permanent syndrome in Genoa, is to kill Vox. They see us as their main political enemy, because they think that we have to return to a situation in which PP finds itself with nothing to its right.”. Characters as disparate as Aznar, “who is putting a lot of pressure” and González Pons, but also the European People's Party, who would see an alliance between the two forces in Spain as bad, agree on this purpose..

the european fight

However, the European case is much more ambiguous than is given to understand, because there are two contradictory positions. On the one hand, there is the German position, that of the CDU leader, Friedrich Mertz, who has refused to make any alliance with the extreme right of the AfD, and, on the other, that of Manfred Weber, the president of the European People's Party. , more favorable to them. The growth of these forces in northern Europe, with an east where they are a regular and often dominant presence, and a south where they are the first force in Italy, second in France and third in Spain, has caused Weber to assess what a PP would mean European with all that wealth inside.

From Vox, they believe that this internal tension will settle soon, since “the European PP is in a fight and will have to leave”. Leaders like Giorgia Meloni will be instrumental in leading it to a new place. However, they believe that now this division in the European right-wing, “which is the same as that experienced in Spain, because the same thing happens almost everywhere”, can harm them, since there is pressure for PP and Vox not to sign a government alliance after the generals.

the double campaign

The future for Vox, from this perspective, is full of obstacles: “We expect them to attack us from everywhere, from the left-wing press to Federico Jiménez Losantos, because it is something in which there is consensus”. His position will not change: “We will continue our business. In the Balearic Islands, for example, we have a very interesting pre-agreement, with issues in which we show that we are useful”.

Ultimately, the tension between PP and Vox underscores how this campaign will have two focuses of interest. The fight between blocks, in which the right starts with an advantage, and the intra-block fight, to the extent that Feijóo and Abascal will try to steal votes, and the same will happen between Sánchez and Díaz. Most likely, as the campaign progresses, the fighting will become more intense..