“What people want is to go to the beach”. With this very mundane feeling and at the same time so symptomatic of the situation the PSOE is going through, a socialist cadre answers when asked about the spirit with which they are facing the general election campaign. To the obstacle of the heat, the militants and organic charges add several weights in the backpack with which they arrive at 23-J: the bad result of May 28, the discontent with the elaboration of certain lists or the euphoria of the PP. Everything causes fear for the state in which the party will arrive at the elections advanced by Pedro Sánchez to submit his leadership to the will of the citizens.
The change in the rally to start the pre-campaign has raised some alarms, although the heat argument is not trivial. Sánchez wanted to start the path where he was resurrected organically, in the Lake of Life of Dos Hermanas. Finally, it will be in the municipal booth of this Sevillian town, a fetish for the President of the Government, after Ferraz verified this Wednesday that the outdoor auditorium that they had initially chosen can become a frying pan at noon on Sunday.
The images of the nearby crowded Dos Hermanas velodrome —Pablo Iglesias filled it in 2015 and the last socialist was Rubalcaba, more than a decade ago— are a chimera. There will be no photo with the historic collapsed site, but in Ferraz they assure that there will be more than 3,000 people in the Nazarene town. And to achieve this, the PSOE machinery has even pressured other territories, confirmed several sources consulted by this newsroom, so that they go to the city of the metropolitan area of Seville, where the Socialists, by the way, have won again by an absolute majority..
The diagnosis that is distilled from various conversations with socialist cadres and leaders is very similar. The militancy arrives exhausted at this sort of second round of the elections. There is a coincidence that the moment of greatest mobilization within the PSOE occurs in the municipal ones, when the militants risk, in many cases, their own positions. The bad result of 28-M has led to the discouragement of many, who have seen how local governments and councils were lost.
“If bragging about management, which is the most important thing, has not worked…”, admits a position from the Andalusian PSOE who explains that the campaign is designed by Ferraz, although the territories will have some room for maneuver. And although he admits his discouragement, this leader has a certain optimism, since he considers that in the towns and cities where the PSOE has lost the Government they are aware that the first step to recover it is to keep Pedro Sánchez in Moncloa.
Lack of proxies?
The discouragement is undeniable, but the voices from within the PSOE defend that we must press. “If we sink, we get 10 fewer seats,” says this socialist leader. If they manage to ward off that lethargy and leave it behind, it can be perfectly verified on the morning of July 23.. There are those who slip that there will be some difficulty to populate the associations of proxies. This was the first symptom of Susana Díaz's pyrrhic victory in December 2018. When in a stronghold of the PSOE like Alcalá de los Gazules (Cádiz) the absence of socialist representatives in the schools was noticed, the alarms began to sound.
Another factor to take into account to explain this almost depressive moment is the noise that has been generated around the charts.. And this is something that has happened in all territories. In Andalusia, the party's largest federation, they remember that it is not a new phenomenon. Alfredo Pérez Rubalcaba was deputy for Cádiz and María Teresa Fernández de la Vega did the same for Jaén. “Nobody likes cuneros, because it means that one of yours is left out,” acknowledges a source from the Andalusian PSOE, who alludes to the case of Fernando Grande-Marlaska, who repeats in the province of Cádiz after topping the list in 2019.
The case of Carmen Calvo is also striking. She is Andalusian, but the tightness of the Córdoba list has led her to lead the candidacy for Granada to secure the position. The inclusion of the former vice president in the Nasrid province has generated significant noise that does not help to motivate the militancy either.. But in the Andalusian PSOE they downplay this type of phenomenon, because, they say, it is something common to a certain extent in the party. And they affirm that the discontent is not even close to the levels of 2019. It must be remembered that then Susana Díaz posed a challenge to Sánchez in the design of the Andalusian lists that was harshly corrected by Ferraz.
Lamban's anger
This phenomenon is repeated in Aragon, where, perhaps, one of the most devilish realities in the organic socialist apparatus is lived, just over a month before the general elections. Ferraz's decision to purge the list of candidates for Congress and the Senate proposed by Javier Lambán, who imitated the former Andalusian baroness in his 2019 strategy, was a setback that nobody expected. The result is that the spirits in the Aragonese PSOE are completely down. There is no desire or harmony with another electoral campaign.
The decision by Sánchez to place Minister Pilar Alegria at the top of the list for Zaragoza did not sit well with the still Aragonese president and his apparatus. They had a very different idea.. This disparity of criteria will show a surreal photograph: Sánchez and Alegría at the central meeting that they hold in Aragón and in front of the first row of Aragonese officials who have repudiated and criticized the imposition. The question is whether they will applaud, because socialist sources believe that, after Ferraz's purge of almost the entire electoral list proposed by Lambán, the desire is scarce.
Along these lines, sources from the Huesca PSOE organization say that a people-to-people or door-to-door campaign is not foreseen. The feeling is of fallen arms and bowed head before a foreseeable result of defeat. These sources detail that it will be the mayors of each municipality who decide whether or not to hold a rally in their municipalities. The provincial leadership will focus on a low-noise campaign and follow-up to the national campaign.
Fatigue in the Valencian Community
The campaign is also approached from fatigue in the Valencian Community, a territory that the Socialists have just lost and where they are still digesting a defeat they did not expect. The pact of the Popular Party of Carlos Mazón with Vox is spurring the bases, which begin to see a possibility of revenge on 23-J, but even so, PSPV-PSOE sources with many campaigns behind them admit that they are facing an electoral race atypical. “It will not be like any other; people are saturated and exhausted. In the end there will be mobilization, but it may be necessary to adapt to the circumstances,” they point out..
In the ranks of the PSPV, the second federation in militants after the Andalusian, they are waiting for Ferraz to launch the main instructions. It is planned to hold a meeting of the monographic federal executive on the subject. In Valencia, points to three factors that make the imminent campaign different. The first is cheap. The party has just faced some regional and municipal ones in which there has been a deployment of resources and the box is not buoyant.
It is true that budgets are drawn up based on vote estimates and that the party financing system then compensates justified spending through subsidies, the limits of which are legally set.. But even so, in the previous weeks electoral actions can be financed that now it will be impossible to undertake. The perspective of the future in terms of contributions from cadres now evicted from the institutions does not help either. “We have been financially exhausted,” says a person who is near the kitchen, who cites the chosen date, with the heat of July, as the second element that distorts the planning. “The logical thing is that we carry out surgical actions, with smaller acts and many social networks. Running a normal campaign would not be very realistic on our part or on the part of the rest of the parties.”.
The third factor is internally emotional. The defeat of the Botànic on May 28 has left the teams baffled. To this has been added the clash that the outgoing president, Ximo Puig, has had with the provincial secretaries of Valencia (Carlos Fernández Bielsa) and Alicante (Alejandro Soler) for the preparation of the candidacies for Congress and the Senate. Ferraz wanted to ingratiate himself with everyone and ended up disavowing the Valencian baron, by retracting part of the correction that Puig had made of the lists to Soler and Bielsa, the latter with clear succession aspirations in the PSPV.
In the socialist ranks it is taken for granted that Soler, who is the head of the Congress list for Alicante, will put all the meat on the grill in the electoral campaign. Bielsa, who has fought with Puig for the presence of the mayor of Paterna and his ally, Juan Antonio Sagredo, in the Senate candidacy, should also get involved. In the same way, the acting president of the Generalitat will want the Minister of Science, Diana Morant, poster for Valencia, to play a good role. But beyond the interests of families, everyone is at stake for the future of the organization. The PSOE could take a long time to recover from a very deep blow on July 23.