If Puigdemont boasts of what he lacks, he will not be so different from Sánchez in terms of “liar” and “non-compliant”. That's what he accuses him of from his devalued Waterloo mockery. And on that scolding hangs his notice for sailors: “Pedro Sánchez will not be president of the Government with the votes of Junts”.

What if he's not bluffing, what if he's telling the truth?

Even if it does not come to fruition, the ghost of the blockade would settle in the scores of the PSOE-Sumar tandem with their fellow parliamentarians. Namely: left-wing Catalan and Basque independentists (ERC and Bildu, in a strategic alliance), right-wing Catalan and Basque independentists (Junts and PNV), and from each other.

Faced with Feijóo's unsuccessful epistolary offer to meet with Sánchez in order to agree on a possible blockade of governability (the reproaches return to the response), the latest statements by the former president of the Generalitat have more echo, due to their destabilizing charge. “We are not here to patch up the legislature,” says the factual leader of Junts, a dissonant voice in a nationalist block that sacrifices the ideological to the identity (all for the homeland) and that is as opposed to a right-wing government as it is to repetition of elections.

On this front of pragmatic anti-Spanish encouragement (asking for the Moon by force is not realistic), the entangling condition of the fugitive and the cries of Míriam Nogueras against the “repressive State” are not enough to cause the misalignment of its seven deputies. Junts will always put the territorial (a way to solve the Catalan conflict) ahead of the ideological (centre-right party). The opposite is absolutely ruled out, as incongruous.. So all the paths that are offered to the Puigdemont-Turull-Nogueras, in the place of third parties to tune bagpipes without denying themselves, lead to abstention when the time comes to vote at the investiture.

Because?

Because no less incongruous than putting aside the identity objectives would be to say yes to any of the two candidates for Moncloa (Sánchez and Feijóo), except for compromises of debatable constitutionality, not to say clearly unconstitutional, in view of the demands for amnesty and self-determination. Which has been conclusively rejected by the acting President of the Government and preferred candidate of the pro-independence groups represented in Congress.

But it is a very widespread opinion that the hospitality of the constitutional frameworks offers many ways to scare away the specter of the repetition of elections.. That is where, for different reasons and with different arguments —basically, the common aversion to a government with the extreme right inside—, the forces of Moncloa and the Generalitat have conspired to get the seven Junts deputies, or at least two of them, support Sánchez.

If this is not achieved, all eyes will be on the only deputy from the Canary Islands Coalition, Cristina Valido, who will be responsible for tipping the balance in a scenario of a tie for 171 deputies, with the abstention of those from Junts and the unknown of the deputy of CC. If Puigdemont does not bluff when he says that Sánchez will not repeat in Moncloa with the votes of Junts, that is what could happen.

In any of the cases, the Government enlightened by Parliament, after the consequent white smoke in the investiture session (I do not think we will reach the repetition of elections), will emerge insecure and wobbly from minute one, at the mercy of forces paid to the constitutional disloyalty that defines them.

The organic renewal processes planned in the socialist federations after the loss of institutional power on 28-M will be frozen until the investiture process of Pedro Sánchez is resolved. This is indicated by sources from the Ferraz executive, who also do not rule out competition between lists or, even, having to force the convening of a territorial congress. It is a prerogative that the federal leadership has if there is no agreement, according to the same sources, slipping the possibility that the Aragonese baron, Javier Lambán, resists. The reinforcement of Pedro Sánchez after 23-J has made him shield his leadership in the party, not only stopping any internal movement, but with the ability to condition them in the different territories.

The name of Ignacio Urquizu, in the critical current against Ferraz, is one of the ones that have sounded the most in terms of Lambán's succession. The mayor of Alcañiz and former deputy was already vetoed by the executive to remove him from the electoral lists proposed by the PSOE of Aragon for 23-J. The bet of the current leadership to take the reins of the party in this territory is the Minister of Education, Pilar Alegría. From their environment, they have been in charge of emphasizing that their candidacy in the general elections collected 25,000 more votes than Lambán's in the regional elections. The Aragonese baron, for his part, responded in public that the candidacy headed by Alegría was “one of the ones that have improved their results the least compared to the regional elections in May”.

Extremadura is another of the territories pending organic renewal. Despite having established the change in the general secretariat for this autumn, it has been decided to postpone the process for the replacement of Guillermo Fernández Vara pending the formation of the central government. In the Valencian Community, after the loss of the Generalitat by Ximo Puig, there are more unknowns. The former president of the Generalitat will be a senator by autonomous designation, like Lambán, Vara and Juan Lobato from Madrid. In this last federation, an internal pulse has been allowed to appear, with some of its voices demanding an internal reflection on the results of 28-M.

The decision of the Madrid secretary general to occupy a position of senator by territorial designation in the Upper House has contributed even more to inflame the spirits. Lobato has explained this decision to accumulate charges due to his desire to have more focus, but not everyone in the PSOE-M shares it. They warn that she can thus give more space to the leader of Más Madrid, Mónica García, as the true leader of the opposition to Isabel Díaz Ayuso and her alternative in the face of the next elections. After 28-M, it is no less. A veteran of the party focuses on the need to open an internal reflection and be accountable for the results. In seats, the PSOE managed to go from 24 to 27, although in absolute numbers it only grew by 1,674 votes compared to the early elections of 2021. In addition, it was once again the third force, behind Más Madrid, which maintains the leadership of the opposition. “We are 270,000 votes away from the results of Ángel [Gabilondo] in 2019 and Lobato is not the head of the opposition,” stresses a socialist deputy. To this negative reading, add the fact that “Podemos has disappeared” without implying a substantial improvement in its results..

Faced with the barons touched by the results of 28-M, Pedro Sánchez has managed to strengthen his leadership on the back of a result with which he not only resists and blocks a change of government, but also grows in votes and seats. Four points more than in the last elections and gaining one seat, reaching 121. If a blockade occurs, before a hypothetical castling of Carles Puigdemont's party, which maintains the impossible price of “amnesty and independence”, Sánchez will once again be a candidate and his political future will be decided after once again casting the cards.

Sánchez has become even more empowered than he was and both his leadership and his parliamentary group are perfectly cohesive. All this has ruined Feijóo's trick to force a kind of internal rebellion in the PSOE, putting pressure on the barons with the aim of raising an abstention to let the most voted list govern. All of them, including the critics Javier Lambán and Emiliano García-Page, have avoided objecting to an investiture supported by the nationalist and independence bloc.. Likewise, they reject a kind of grand coalition with the PP and, above all, Vox's proposal that Feijóo seek a majority with the vote of “five or six good Socialists”. “I am a democrat even before I am a socialist, which means, firstly, respect for what the citizens voted for and, secondly, complying with the rules. Also those of the political parties themselves. The turncoat does not go with me”, responded the president of Castilla-La Mancha last Thursday.

Instead of fissures appearing in the face of an electoral disaster like that of the municipal and regional ones, the current PSOE comes out reinforced and armored in the face of any critical current. Already to avoid hypothetical fractures, Sánchez drew up some electoral lists with people of his total confidence. Much greater armor than in the 2019 elections. In fact, on this occasion, Ferraz chose to impose his candidates on various lists, both from territories led by critical barons and by like-minded.

The crisis of leadership and strategy in ERC is becoming more and more evident. In the municipal elections he lost 300,000 votes and in the general elections another 400,000 were left behind.. There are also other disturbing signs, such as Ernest Maragall getting 115,000 more votes than Gabriel Rufián this 23-J. Pasqual Maragall's younger brother was running as number two for the Senate and has not been chosen. Rufián, on the other hand, has obtained his seat as head of the list for the province of Barcelona. Things of the Electoral Law. However, the seven deputies achieved imply the loss of six parliamentarians compared to 2019. That data already implies a complication. But that difference generates more serious underlying problems that affect the power of Oriol Junqueras.

ERC was the fourth force in the province of Barcelona. The list headed by Rufián obtained 326,388 votes. The deputy carried out a complete campaign, perhaps the best in Catalonia, but the electorate no longer buys a certain product. Maragall, for his part, achieved 442,155 votes, 35% more. These supports have not been enough for him to be chosen. For the Senate, only the jurist Joan Queralt has won his seat.

With this situation, Esquerra held its extraordinary national council this Friday, where the situation of the party will be analyzed, which is losing popular support in each electoral call, while at the same time it had never occupied so much institutional space. In the council, the criticisms were diverted by asking the bases to channel them through the territorial assemblies, a way like any other to buy time.

Junqueras marked a good part of the electoral strategy in both the municipal and general elections, until halfway through the campaign of the latter Sergi Sebrià arrived from the Palau de la Generalitat to rectify the shot on the fly. But there has only been some criticism of Junqueras from some grassroots militants and mayors of small towns.. So far, nothing that can be considered structural. In fact, there have been more reproaches for entering the Barcelona Provincial Government through the back door than for the poor result in the elections.

Gabriel Rufián as number one for Barcelona was the decision of Oriol Junqueras. The same as putting Ernest Maragall as number two for the Senate, as a way of stopping the campaign of radical independence in favor of abstention.

The difference between Senate candidates who do not win the seat is not strange, but it is very large and shows the little pull that the candidates in question had. It has also happened to Míriam Nogueras, head of the JxCAT list for Barcelona. Antoni Castellà, candidate for the Senate, also number two, got 42,000 more votes than her. Again, too large a difference for elections like these. Republicans do not want to acknowledge that, de facto, their approach has little to do with the one held by JxCAT. According to ERC, it is not that his party renounces self-determination, as JxCAT is demanding, but that it understands it as “a gradual process” that lasts over time.

For this reason, it is now focused on demanding other things, such as new regional financing, the main bargaining chip of the Republicans in the face of a possible investiture of the PSOE leader. In the national council on Friday, it was approved that in case of agreeing to the investiture of Pedro Sánchez, this would be later ratified by the bases of the republicans as a concession to a dissatisfied and suspicious militancy.

lack of realism

From the Palau, they propose that the new financing be negotiated bilaterally with the Spanish Government, something unrealistic, because the financing systems are negotiated multilaterally and agreed upon with the rest of the autonomous communities, although it is true that whenever they have been modified has been because the change has been led by Catalonia.

The underlying problem is how to question Junqueras after he has spent three and a half years in jail. No one in the party dares to do it. That is why there are few critical voices within ERC. Everyone fears an electoral repetition in January with Gabriel Rufián at the helm, at this moment, the most plausible scenario. But no one is capable of assuming a movement of this magnitude.

The month of July ends this Monday with 20 provinces from eight autonomous communities at risk (yellow) due to high temperatures, with maximums that will range between 35 and 40 degrees, according to the forecast of the State Meteorological Agency (AEMET).. The heat will put Córdoba, Granada, Jaén, Málaga, Seville, Huesca, Zaragoza, Ávila, Albacete, Ciudad Real, Cuenca, Guadalajara, Toledo, Lleida, Tarragona, Cáceres, Madrid, Valencia, Santa Cruz de Tenerife and Las palms.

The Andalusian provinces of Córdoba and Jaén maintain the orange level for values that will rise to 40 degrees in points of the Cordovan countryside and the Guadalquivir valley of Jaén; in Granada, Malaga and Seville there is a yellow warning (risk) for temperatures between 38 and 39 degrees.

The Community of Madrid has activated the yellow warning for records of 37 degrees in the metropolitan area, south, Las Vegas, center and west, while in the mountains the thermometers will mark 35 degrees.

A week of contrasts in terms of temperatures: the first days will be very warm, especially in the east of the peninsula and the Balearic Islands. The EFI index shows unusually high values in some areas between Monday and Wednesday. (1/2) pic.twitter.com/mgdqESRQ9P

– AEMET (@AEMET_Esp) July 30, 2023

All the provinces of Castilla-La Mancha continue on yellow alert for values between 36 and 38 degrees, although the Aemet warns that in La Mancha, Albacete, Alcaraz and Segura, 40 degrees can be reached on time.

In the northeast of the peninsula, Aragon continues in yellow due to highs that will rise to 36 degrees, while in Catalonia, the heat will affect the provinces of Lleida and Tarragona with values of 36 degrees.

The provinces of Ávila (Castilla y León), Cáceres (Extremadura) and Valencia (Valencian Community) have a yellow level for maximum values between 36 and 38 degrees.

In the provinces of the Canary archipelago, Gran Canaria, Fuerteventura and Tenerife will be the islands in yellow warning due to high temperatures, while the waves will activate the same level of alert in Gran Canaria, La Palma, La Gomera, El Hierro and Tenerife. In general, this Monday, July 31, the maximum temperatures will increase in the Canary Islands and in the northern third of the Peninsula and will drop in the southeast, while the minimum will drop in the northeast.

In a large part of the country, slightly cloudy skies will predominate, although evolutionary clouds will form in the interior eastern third, with the probability of showers in the eastern Pyrenees, without ruling them out in a scattered manner in other interior areas of Catalonia, the interior of Valencia and in the Eastern Iberian.

Low morning clouds are also forecast in the eastern Mediterranean area, without ruling out isolated rainfall in the south of Valencia, north of Alicante and west of the Balearic Islands. Likewise, in the Bay of Biscay there could be intervals of scattered low clouds, and in the west of Galicia it will tend to cloud over at the end, with a small probability of weak precipitation in the northwest of Galicia at the end of the day..

The winds, for their part, will be from the west component on the Atlantic slope, area of the Strait and middle Ebro, and the east component will predominate in the Mediterranean area. Likewise, trade winds are expected in the Canary Islands, with very strong gusts in the channels between islands.

Thus begins a week “of contrasts” in which the first few days will be very warm, especially in the east of the peninsula and the Balearic Islands, and from Thursday, with the arrival of a mass of cold air for the season, there will be three days with unusually low temperatures for August in the north and east of the peninsula, as specified by the AEMET.

The Aemet warns that with the orange alert there is a risk of unusual meteorological phenomena and with a certain degree of danger for usual activities, and with the yellow alert there is no meteorological risk for the population in general, although there is for some specific activity.

Nine people have died and three have been seriously injured from 3:00 p.m. on Friday to 8:00 p.m. this Sunday, in the special traffic operation at the start of August, according to official data from the General Directorate of Traffic.

The last of the accidents was registered this Sunday at 7:17 p.m. in which a 45-year-old motorist died after colliding with a van on the RM-333 highway, in the municipality of Águilas (Murcia), has reported to EFE the 112 of the region.

The circulation of this Sunday has been complicated as the afternoon has progressed, with retentions at various entrances in Madrid and Barcelona, as well as at points in Levante and Andalusia.

According to the count of the General Directorate of Traffic (DGT), since the beginning of the most important operation in terms of movements, nine deaths have been recorded in as many fatal accidents and three seriously injured.

On Friday there were three deaths in the provinces of Cádiz, Ávila and Orense, in three accidents, while on Saturday there were five deaths in Madrid, Almería, Córdoba, Cuenca and Pontevedra, three of them motorcyclists.. The DGT forecasts almost nine million road trips over the weekend and more than 49 million in August.

Gijón woke up on Saturday with gray skies and a few drops of rain, but that did not stop fans of bands like Lehendakaris Muertos or El Drogas from coming to the Castro Brothers Park to dance, jump and form some pogo. There were mohawks, earrings and rock. “I take the opportunity to defend the officiality of the Asturian”. And the audience burst into applause.. This edition of the musical event, which has been held in the city since 2017, was in the eye of the hurricane for this issue.

Vox's entry into the local government after 28M caused the organizers of the festival —with a mostly left-wing audience— to meet with the number two of this political formation, Oliver Suárez. They took a photo all together at the party headquarters and it spread through networks. It was then that the brawl broke out among the fans of this event. In addition, the current councilor for festivities, Sara Álvarez Rouco, declared that she did not defend the official status of the Asturian language. The drop that filled the glass. This is one more episode of the events in recent weeks due to the entry of Vox into the government in different regional and municipal executives.

“The hecatomb broke out,” Oliver Suárez points out to this newspaper. Two bands got off the poster for relating the musical appointment with said party. Mario, an activist, explains his discomfort to El Confidencial: “The Tsunami is a festival for anti-fascists, at least we thought so.” There are those who are more lax. A representative of the Asturias insubmissive association explains that before the Tsunami was more dangerous, but that it is “normal that as they grow and become more widely known, things change.”

Isaac and Paula are right at the entrance of the festival. They had been trying to go to the Tsunami for years and they finally succeeded. They position themselves regarding what happened. “What I did not like is that the meeting was held at the Vox headquarters and not in the town hall,” the man from Gijón told this newspaper.. For his part, Santi, who wears a T-shirt with a slogan that says “there is no place for fascism”, explains that sometimes you have to jump through hoops. “In the end, one way to demonstrate what we think is by coming to the festival. The City Council is what it is”.

What really happened at that meeting? Who summoned her? Why was it done at the Vox headquarters and not in the consistory building? The number two of Vox in the city and president of Divertia (the municipal company that manages all cultural events in Gijón), Oliver Suárez, explains what happened to El Confidencial: “Ramón, Iván and David —the organizers of the festival, also to the in front of O Son do Camiño and the Resurrection Fest— contacted me to meet me. The relationship with the previous director of Divertia was not very fluid, let's say. We spent two hours talking, first at the Vox headquarters and then having a coffee. We did not go to the town hall building because we still did not have the assigned offices”.

The war started. “Those at the festival even received threats from radicals who call themselves Democrats,” Suárez continues.. And two bands decided to withdraw from the festival. The Elite and Stranjis Guajes. “These are not moments for communications, but for actions,” said the first, a duo that mixes punk, new wave and electronics. “We have decided not to play at said event […] That they meet at the Vox headquarters is humiliating.” From the promoter of the event they claim to be exhausted with this event. In addition, they also clarify how the closing of the event was done with the previous team and they hope that the festival will take place without incident. “I don't feel responsible or involved,” says Suárez regarding what happened.

28M turn

Gijón always had a tendency to the left. “A part of the population did not expect Vox to enter the government,” reflects the political scientist from Gijón, Eduardo Bayón. This can explain, in a certain way, the reactionary and sharp attitude of those who protested against that famous meeting.

Since Spain held its first democratic municipal elections, the Asturian city has been under socialist control —except between 2011 and 2019, when Foro Asturias governed, a split from the Popular Party—. On 28M there was a script twist. The most voted list was the PSOE, but the sum of the right-wing forces managed to win the consistory. The plummet of Podemos favored that the left was not able to add enough seats.

The result was that the Vox candidate, Sara Álvarez Rouco, was left with the department of celebrations. Theatre, cinema and music. Basically, those of Abascal have control of the entire artistic spectrum of the Asturian city. “Everyone who speaks what he wants. Galician, Celtic or Saharawi; but public money should not go to sponsoring ideologies,” Suárez told this newspaper.

However, there are those who walk away from all this mess. A young man drinks a calimocho in front of the stage. “We come for the music,” he says.

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The Mercadona supermarket chain has announced that it is raising the price of its rate for home deliveries, in a change that will be made progressively in its establishments throughout the country. At the moment, the increase is already taking effect in various supermarkets, as some users have pointed out on social networks when they see the posters that announce it..

As explained by Mercadona, they justify the increase in this rate due to the increase in costs related to aspects such as energy and personnel, and they ensure that it was no longer possible for them to cover the costs of the process with the previous price.. For this reason, they have decided to raise this rate for home service, for the first time in twenty years. This service refers specifically to the one we request at the same location, when we ask the cashier to send the purchase home, and it is not related to online purchases, which have different conditions..

New price for home purchases

Actually, the prices for the home shopping service differ depending on the geographical area, but until now it generally cost 4.20 euros. From now on, the price will be 6.50 euros, although it may vary depending on the establishment, and it is advisable to consult it in the one where we are going to make the purchase. On the other hand, what does remain is that, to use this home shopping service from the supermarket itself, it is not necessary to reach any minimum in the amount of our purchase.

Even so, some users have complained about this increase, which is also applied to large purchases. The official Mercadona account on social networks has responded to some of them, assuring that they had to update this rate “in order to cover the costs of the service”, and that it is the first time they have changed it “in the last 20 years”.

Good afternoon. The price of the home service rate has not changed in the last 20 years. In order to cover the costs of the service we have had to update it. All the best

– Mercadona (@Mercadona) July 27, 2023

For its part, the online purchase service, using the Mercadona website, continues with the same conditions as before: it costs 7.21 euros, and in this case a minimum purchase of 50 euros is required.

The agreement reached by the PSOE and ERC in 2019 gave birth to a system of distribution of funds between the CCAAs that has been detrimental to communities such as Andalusia, Valencia or Murcia, but the lack of agreement between the two major parties has made its renewal impossible. And the result of the general elections on July 23 is not exactly the best to unblock this dormant conflict..

The financing model was approved in 2009 with an expiration of four years. And it is not regulated by an organic law, which would facilitate its reform. But the main problem in dealing with its remodeling is that the communities, regardless of the political color of their government, have different priorities. The regional map that came out on May 28 places the greatest responsibility on the PP, since it controls most of the regional governments. But even among popular barons there are differences.

Juanma Moreno, for example, promoted a Mediterranean alliance with the Murcian Fernando López Miras, popular like him, and the socialist Ximo Puig. Now the Valencian president, Carlos Mazón, is also a member of the PP. But in this entente there is also the socialist Emiliano García-Page. These four regions defend that the model must attend to the amount of population and the cost of the public services that are financed, for which reason they came to ask the Government of Pedro Sánchez for a compensation fund of about 1,600 million.

What is striking is that in front of them are the presidents of the Cantabrian coast, regardless of their political color. There was Alberto Núñez Feijóo himself when he was Galician president, together with the Asturian Adrián Barbón, from the PSOE, who want other parameters such as territorial dispersion or the aging of the population to be taken into account. It is these regions that benefit the most from the current model, which is why they are most reluctant to the reform that they are pushing from that Mediterranean corridor sponsored by Ximo Piug and Juanma Moreno.

The devilish arithmetic that has emerged from 23-J distances this possibility even further, despite the fact that the two big parties maintain the reform as one of their priorities. In the National Board of Directors that the PP held on the day after the voting, Feijóo included updating the system in the projects that he would implement if he was able to achieve an investiture. In the event that the Galician manages to turn around the current scenario and reach Moncloa, he will have to work to agree with his barons, since Moreno's priorities are very different from those of his successor in the Xunta, Alfonso Rueda..

Montero's challenge

On the last few occasions that the debate on the financing model has been opened, the Minister of Finance has focused on this disparity within the popular. María Jesús Montero makes it obvious that within the PSOE there is no clear consensus on what the model should be like. However, the Socialists had in their electoral program for July 23 the commitment to approve a new model within a year. Treasury sources now admit that it will be complicated, given the parliamentary arithmetic. Their thesis is that if Sánchez is capable of putting together an Executive, the priorities will have to be modulated to accommodate the proposals of the investiture partners..

It must be remembered that number two of the PSOE championed the need to remodel the system when she was Minister of Finance in Andalusia. And already in the last stage of the Government of Mariano Rajoy, a Conference of Presidents was launched with this intention. The motion of censure that exalted Pedro Sánchez ruined the plans. Shortly after reaching the Executive, María Jesús Montero admitted the difficulties of completing the process. And the same thing happened after the 2019 elections and the formation of the coalition with Unidas Podemos.

The steps that Montero has taken have been aimed at defining the concept of adjusted population, which is the main variable used to distribute the funds among the communities.. It is a concept that starts from the number of inhabitants that a territory has, but qualified by those conditions that have communities in dispute: geographical dispersion, aging or spending on public services. The Treasury drew up a definition in the last legislature that will be the basis if the PSOE manages to put together a government.

Meanwhile, the struggles of the worst-financed communities will continue and the Government will continue to argue that it has been the cabinet that has made the most extraordinary funds available to the regional Administration, especially thanks to covid funds or the arrival of extra money from Brussels. The amounts that the territories receive from the State are the main support of the budgets that the autonomous governments put together and that this year they will have to get ahead without the spending ceiling or without knowing the deliveries on account. From the Treasury, they point out that this is not a relevant obstacle, since the communities have very accurate information about the resources they will have.

The promise that Alberto Núñez Feijóo made to Manuel Fraga weighs more today than ever. That commitment led him to step forward a little over a year ago and take command of Genoa.. Those who know him assure that the decision cost him. More because of the personal situation, his wife and their six-year-old son had a life made in Galicia, than because of the vertigo of jumping into the national arena.

Even today, in their closest team, “the Galicians” as they refer to them in the game, they have not been able to take the setback of not adding up with Vox. The vote count soon showed that the victory over the PSOE would not be overwhelming, but what nobody expected is that it would not join Vox. What went wrong? There are interpretations for all tastes. “At the past bull it is very easy”, they defend themselves from the circle of trust of the leader. There is a coincidence that the last week of the campaign was the turning point towards disaster. In the game the most veterans began to alert that something was not going well. Those who had campaigned with Mariano Rajoy soon detected that they had to “bite” the PSOE. Yolanda Díaz opened the ban so that Feijóo's relationship with the drug trafficker Marcial Dorado was a “Malay drop” that fell on the honor of the Galician. The main failure, according to what party sources tell this newspaper, is that the Genoa leadership was notified days before that Moncloa was preparing dossiers on Dorado. “Nobody paid attention. They rode on the backs of the polls”, they lament from the party.

The truth is that Feijóo did not know how to deal with the questions from journalists on a subject that his Praetorian Guard considered “amortized”. He began by saying that at that time “there was no Google” to justify that he was unaware of the activities of the man with whom he shared a yacht and ended by saying that he was a “smuggler”. The “slip” added to the controversy over pensions. Feijóo got entangled with the rise in the CPI due to the stupefaction of the party, which did not believe how those responsible for communication had not been able to amend the “failure” that was already detected during the face-to-face with Sánchez.

Over and over again they have reviewed the possible vote leaks, but now it is time to look to the future. The seat that the foreign vote has chosen in Madrid for the PP has raised spirits among the popular. With the new distribution of forces, 137 of the PP against 121 of the PSOE, the “yes” of Carles Puigdemont is essential for the president to repeat. The popular will play all their cards.

There are contacts with Basque and Catalan businessmen to make the PNV turn around, and even explore a path with Junts. “Negotiations cannot be broadcast”, scolds a former high-ranking official in Mariano Rajoy's government who, despite mistrusting the Basque nationalists, assures that the only option, and a very remote one, is to open a discreet path of dialogue. Feijóo maintains an “excellent” relationship with Íñigo Urkullu, but there are many who warn him that the Lendakari is no longer the one in charge: “Ortuzar is the one who sets the roadmap”, sentence popular Basque officials who see it as “impossible” to attract to the PNV.

In this situation, Feijóo is the one who will have to decide his future. In the PP, after the trauma of not governing, the pools on leadership have begun. There is a consensus that the Galician has the legitimacy to decide whether to stay or go, but there are also the majority who take it for granted that the opposition will be tough not so much because of Sánchez but because the Pyrrhic victory has placed Isabel Díaz Ayuso as the “natural leader “. The intention at this time is to “fight”. The dream scenario draws an electoral repetition where Feijóo would repeat as a candidate without internal contestation and where, as happened with Rajoy, it is expected to improve the results by absorbing Vox.

Those of Santiago Abascal are the “declared enemy” for the PP. They blame the pacts with the extreme right for the fact that the polls that pointed to more than 150 seats were not met. Opinions are divided, but both sides blame Genoa for not having managed bilateral relations with Vox. Those who agree with what Esperanza Aguirre expressed point out that the “partners” were attacked so much that the left ended up mobilizing for fear of “involution” cheered by the PSOE, others point out the “mess” of the agreements that were signed and the lack of a clear directive from Feijóo himself to the barons on how and when to agree with Vox. The national leadership got carried away and it was in Extremadura, when the trackings began to sound the alarms, when María Guardiola was pressured to retract in pursuit of stability. It was late. The left already had the story. The moderate voter did not understand “I do not want to agree with Vox” while investitures were being signed.

The dilemma is precisely in the investiture of Feijóo. The leader of the PP is ready to go, but there are voices that consider that he will be “defeated”. The King will not have an easy role either given that the PP is the list with the most votes, but except for surprises, Feijóo would have to be proposed despite not having enough support. The barons support playing the winner's card, although from the point of view of establishing a position and contrasting the country's project with Sánchez. None trusts an alternative majority and here the spigot of succession opens. Few see the Galician in the opposition. Remember that he always said that the important thing “is not to win but to govern”.

His convictions collide with the path that remains for him to travel. He came to say months ago that he would not continue leading the party if he did not reach Moncloa. Today his closest circle supports him to “resist”. The “Galicians” will be with him on the bench of Congress. From his right hand, Mar Sánchez, to his chief of staff, Marta Varela, they have won a seat. The scenario if Sánchez manages to reissue Frankenstein will be complicated internally. The shadow of Díaz Ayuso will always be present. There are even members of the national leadership who take it for granted that the Madrid will end up making the leap. He will be prudent because his gurus advise him to wait. This is not the time to fight, but neither will it be for Feijóo in two years, if the legislature is short, or in four.

The PP will let Feijóo do it, but the forces are already positioning themselves around Juanma Moreno and Isabel Díaz Ayuso. The first will prop up the Galician until the last minute. He represents the PP of the “sorayos” and of Rajoy, the second has the favor of former president José María Aznar. The party waits for him to speak and they remember that with a similar result he appeared before another Galician, Rajoy, demanding a National Congress in 2015. The challenge is the same today: to unite the right since divided it will be difficult to govern.

Something came to my mind that I have already witnessed in some electoral campaigns in which I have participated in recent years. Companies specialized in demoscopy are frequently approached to carry out “tailor-made” electoral surveys, as one more campaign tool, in order to serve the objective of mobilizing or demobilizing voters.. I have never seen behavior that was not professional, but it is evident that the proximity to a certain candidacy introduces a voluntaristic bias —especially when the results are very close— that could condition, in a certain way, the result.

The failure of the surveys is not in the size of the samples (the CIS has handled samples of more than 19,000 valid interviews), nor in the methodology (the one that came closest, 40DB for PRISA, used online surveys).. The reason is, from my point of view, in the way in which the parties make us interpret the numbers, especially in internal polls and in which they even estimated 160 seats for the Popular Party.

In the words of the sociologist and professor Juan José Toharia, one of the most authoritative voices in the Spanish desmoscopy, “leaving aside the CIS, which plays in another league and is not right even when it is wrong, we have to further refine our ability to capture emotional waves , which for now seem to be below what our radar can measure with due precision”.

I am not an expert in demoscopy. I collaborated with the Albert Rivera survey team in 2015. The work consisted of “capturing the psychic waves” to which Toharia referred, to clarify the existing surveys and thus achieve a more accurate picture.. I reviewed the work this morning and the truth is that the electoral forecasts made in October of that year “nailed” the December electoral results thanks to introducing variables more linked to reputation management into the equation. It is true that a success does not validate a model.

The main conclusion I got from that experience is that in traditional polls positive factors tend to prevail over negative ones: sentiment, memory, voting intention, trends, etc.. All of them are positive factors that, in an ideal world, could translate into voting. But the reality is that there are barriers and difficulties that prevent this intention from finally coming to fruition.. If the resistance to voting is not well calibrated, the danger is precisely that inertia (the “wave” some say) leads to maximizing positive data. This is precisely what happened to the PP on 23-J.

But what are the psychic waves that should be considered to refine more in the future? The reputational model to which I have referred before, and I quote professors Carreras and Alloza, considers emotion as a determining factor of the intention (to vote). And emotion is built through two variables that are self-identity and social identity, which, in turn, takes into account factors such as social image, moral pressure, social pressure, convenience, and the perception of ease or difficulty of change.

All these factors have been put into play in this electoral campaign. The image, the moral pressure and the social pressure have been present in a purely ideological campaign between blocks (left and right) where the PP pacts with Vox have undoubtedly retracted part of the more moderate voters who could opt for the PP as political change option. The voluntarist bias led to underestimating the political cost of these pacts, because in the PP they felt that they were facing a “wave” of change, as one of the members of the party leadership explained to me before the elections.. And this perception was contagious in the results of the surveys.

These factors were predictable, although they were underestimated.. The convenience factor was also foreseeable, which was highly commented. In this case, the convenience was conditioned by the date of the electoral call in the middle of the summer season. Under normal conditions, the day chosen for the elections should have resulted in a low turnout. The same as happens when the electoral appointment occurs on a particularly rainy day. Low turnout would have confirmed the wave of change. It was known that the high turnout —in the end it was 70.20%, higher than that of 2019— would favor the electoral expectations of President Pedro Sánchez and the PSOE, because it was the option that had the most to lose. The high number of applications to vote by mail could have served as an alert to qualify the PP results downwards, but it was not possible to analyze them correctly either.

However, the factor (mood wave) that has most influenced the forecasts, in my opinion, is the “perception of ease or difficulty” of the change. Although some voices recalled the “capacity for resistance” of Pedro Sánchez, the PP campaign started from an excess of confidence due to the good results of the Autonomous and Municipal elections of 28M. A confidence that underestimated the chances of a comeback for the PSOE. Despite the fact that the President of the Government risked a very personal campaign to which he gave himself body and soul, raising the morale of his people after the crash of 28M and demonstrating that his commitment and conviction was total —to the point of placing the campaign over a project as desired as the Spanish Presidency of the EU—, Feijóo's victory in the face-to-face debate for many analysts was confirmation that Pedro Sánchez was finished.

The failure of the 23J electoral polls highlights the need to refine the ability to capture the “mood waves” of voters. Surveys, while useful for capturing general trends, should more carefully consider negative factors that may influence voting intentions, such as resistance to voting.. Closeness to certain candidates and the influence of public poll results can skew forecasts and lead to underestimating important political costs.. In the future, it will be crucial to incorporate emotion and factors such as self-identity and social identity into the analysis, which can condition the perception of ease or difficulty in the face of change.. This is the only way to improve the accuracy and reliability of electoral polls in an increasingly complex and dynamic political context..

*Juan Cardona Soriano is a director of PROA Comunicación