• Results general elections 2023 in Spain: who has won the elections, scrutiny and reactions
• Elections Madrid | elections Catalonia | Galician elections | Basque Country elections | Valencian elections
• Government pacts calculator: this is the sum between PP and Vox and PSOE and Sumar

The result of 23-J has been far from what the majority of the polls indicated during the campaign. A good part of the demoscopic houses announced a victory for the block of the right that has not finally occurred. Also a fall of Pedro Sánchez that has not occurred. The electoral night of this Sunday now confirms that the polls outlined an overrepresentation of the PP and an underestimation of the PSOE. The experts consulted agree on the diagnosis that none was able to accurately measure to what extent the Socialists were going to absorb the entire nationalist vote, especially in Catalonia. Nor was the reaction to Vox after its policies at the regional and local level.

The polls gave the PSOE around 108 seats, 14 less than the 122 obtained this Sunday. Sánchez, who has once again displayed his resistance manual, has even improved the results of the 2019 elections, when he stayed at 120, and has gone from 28% to 31.7% of the votes. Only the CIS predicted his ascent, although he shot it up to a maximum range of 135 reps. “Studies have not accurately collected the movements of the last week and especially the wonderful campaign of the PSOE after the debate with Feijóo and its ability to reach young people,” says Isabel Peleteiro, general director of IMOP-Insights. This entity, a reference for El Confidencial, is the one that has most adjusted the result of the popular leader, with a range of between 134 and 142 seats.

The sum of the PP and Vox has been far from expectations, with 169 seats and seven of the absolute majority. Although the studies published until this Sunday warned of a more or less equal scenario in the comparison of the blocks, the bulk of the polls clearly suggested the victory of the right, even around 180 deputies in the most optimistic forecasts.. From GAD3, the company directed by Narciso Michavila, they recognize that they weighted the popular ones several points above reality, partly because they did not detect their exhaustion in the final stretch of the campaign.

One of the great keys, according to the polling houses consulted, is in the useful vote for the PSOE in Catalonia and the Basque Country. Although in the last stretch of the campaign the upward trend of the socialists in these territories was reflected, none knew how to accurately assess the transfer of the nationalist vote and the growth in Sánchez's deputies. “The PSOE has absorbed nationalism with great intensity,” indicates another of the companies consulted, which also highlights a slowdown in the flow of socialist voters who opted for the PP.

Sánchez rose in Catalonia as the first option, dominating the four provinces, going from 12 to 19 deputies and displacing ERC from the board, which fell from 13 to seven representatives in the Congress of Deputies. In Euskadi, the PSOE also rose as the first force with six percentage points more than in 2019, rising from 19.3% to 25.3%. In Navarra, for their part, the Socialists won a representative and stood out from the rest of the formations with 27.4% of the votes. “The change was clear and we all pointed it out, but we did not know how to calibrate the exact amount,” adds Peleteiro.

Vox reactive vote

The experts point out a second issue that has to do with the reactive vote for Vox, which has promoted the Socialists and did not influence the predictions either.. Although the PSOE figures were supported at the beginning of the campaign in recognition of its management in the Government, the trend changed at the end of the campaign, mutating into a response to the policies developed by the ultra-conservative formation in the autonomous governments and the municipalities where it has formed coalitions with the PP, especially in terms of equality.. “There has been a vote to avoid the consequences of the alliance of the PP and Vox,” underlines the director of IMOP.

This reading is shared by other analysts, who consider that a kind of “patriotism” of the party against Vox has prevailed.. The reality is that it is impossible for the right to govern with an absolute majority, with Alberto Núñez Feijóo with 136 deputies and the formation led by Santiago Abascal with 33 (19 less than in 2019).. The scenario after this 23-J is blocking and everything remains in the hands of JxCAT. The formation led by the fugitive Carles Puigdemont has the key to governance with a vote in favor of the investiture of Pedro Sánchez or an abstention, by adding one more vote to the left bloc.

The failure of the polls is not a novelty. In all electoral processes it is common for the results to deviate from the polls and do not coincide with the final count, but the truth is that this time it has been higher than in previous elections. The companies consulted acknowledge the slip and make an examination of conscience, although they also point out the difficulties in conducting the interviews, with problems in contacting citizens because they are on vacation. Be that as it may, the controversy surrounding the polls continues and fuels criticism from left and right.

Alberto Núñez Feijóo has won the general elections, but with a feeling of defeat that not even the eight million votes that the PP signed this Sunday do not wash away. The popular leader was a prisoner of his own expectations. He practically equals the majority of Rajoy in 2016, but his 136 seats are far from the minimum margin with which they had worked throughout the campaign: 150 seats and guaranteed investiture with Vox. But the sum did not arrive. Sánchez will not leave Moncloa if he achieves an abstention from Junts. The other option that Spain is facing is a new blockade. But what became clear on the night of 23-J is that Feijóo has not been able to give the PP the victory it longed for. He showed his weaknesses. Its results reopen cracks that were considered overcome. The leadership debate returns to hover over the Popular Party.

The first step after 23-J will be staging a total closure of ranks with Feijóo, who has already advanced his intention to opt for the investiture and open contacts with all the forces of the parliamentary arc due to the “responsibility” that gives him having been the most voted force on 23-J. The first will be Sanchez. The PSOE candidate contacted his PP counterpart on election night. And this in turn summoned him to maintain contacts “in the coming days” to “avoid the political blockade” in Spain. It is an almost utopian scenario, more so with a grown Sánchez after having turned the polls around and rising two seats compared to 2019. In the weeks that remain until the Cortes are constituted and the first investiture session is held, Feijóo will appeal to the idea that “the most voted list” governs. But your future is uncertain.

Feijóo landed in the PP a little over a year ago as a kind of glue to unite a party badly injured by the war that opened it up.. He himself warned from the beginning that he would play with a single bullet. If he didn't achieve his goal, he said, he would leave.. The popular leader has once again placed the party as the first force after seven years with his head down. It rose 47 seats compared to 2019. He won in 40 of the 52 provinces. And yet, the feeling is fiasco. The sum with Vox – which left 19 seats in these elections – is insufficient and Sánchez has shown a capacity for resistance that surprised not a few at the Genoa headquarters. A triumph at half throttle that uncovers a debate from which the PP will not be able to easily abstract.

The @ppopular has won the general elections.

Thanks to the more than 8 million Spaniards who have given us their support.

I want to form a government and I am going to start a dialogue with the rest of the parties.

I ask for responsibility so that Spain does not suffer blockades. pic.twitter.com/lgWHUHRQdz

– Alberto Núñez Feijóo (@NunezFeijoo) July 23, 2023

The shock of reality in the face of expectations was evident in some of the faces that came out to accompany Feijóo to the balcony of the victories in Genoa. The popular leader expressed his chest about what he had achieved, but portrayed with his words the difficult path that lies ahead. His chances are reduced to Sánchez punting in his attempt to be invested with what is nicknamed the Frankenstein bloc, and the country heads back to an electoral repetition. He will fight for an abstention on the part of the socialists and other forces of the parliamentary arc, but by not adding up with Vox, that offer remains lame.

Feijóo's only option is even more complicated than Sánchez's with Junts: he should bring together Vox (33), PNV (5), Coalición Canaria (1) and UPN (1) in the same investiture agreement. The crossed vetoes would make that sum impossible. And on the same election night, in some sectors of the party the first doubts arose about whether Feijóo would aspire to hold out in opposition in the event of a new Sánchez government, with the thesis that Spain would go to a convulsed and even short legislature.. The option of an electoral repetition is not unreasonable given the result of this 23-J. And, if confirmed, Feijóo would have to decide whether or not to repeat as a candidate. In that case, the pressure of the party would be key.

While making his final plea and appealing to the State pacts, Feijóo was interrupted by a crowd that chanted in unison “Ayuso, Ayuso!”. The president of the Community of Madrid tried to hide a smile. Dressed in red, she was almost the only member of the PP on the balcony who skipped the corporate white that the rest of her party colleagues wore, including the national president. The ghosts of the past returned to hover over the national headquarters of the popular. And the question of whether Ayuso would have been able to get a better result may become the elephant in the room in the coming days.. The Madrid president has neutralized Vox in the Community of Madrid, a region in which, in addition, Sumar has snatched third place from those of Abascal on 23-J.

Despite the threat of internal noise due to the result of 23-J, talking about the battle for the succession are even bigger words. If that extreme were to be reached in the coming months, two natural successors would appear before Feijóo: Isabel Díaz Ayuso, on the one hand, who represents the toughest current of the PP, and Juanma Moreno, on the other, as proxy for the moderate sector, which also includes the Galician president.. In this scenario, the party would return to the reminiscences of the battle between Aznar's PP and Rajoy's. Against the backdrop that, on 23-J, the Andalusian path that helped Moreno to secure an absolute majority has not worked for Feijóo.

campaign errors

In the PP, a period of reflection is now open to analyze the rulings that have led Feijóo to a victory with a taste of defeat on election night. As published by El Confidencial, party officials warned in the final stretch of the campaign of being faced with “the syndrome of ministers”, that is, the risk incurred by those who see themselves caressing the Moncloa with their fingertips. From the beginning, Genoa had a minimum margin of 150 seats. But the first week of the campaign came crashing down. Feijóo himself, in an informal conversation with journalists, raised his chances to even 165 deputies. The party flew too high, and the victory ended up being bitter.

The popular leader had several coups at the beginning of the campaign: the victory in the face-to-face with Sánchez or the interview in El Hormiguero had a positive impact on the party's tracking. But then it lost steam. The second and last week of the campaign, Feijóo starred in several setbacks. First he became entangled with a piece of information about the rise in pensions that led him to confront a TVE journalist, and later, the PSOE returned to agitate the controversial photo of the Galician with the drug trafficker Marcial Dorado, while voices from the party warned that Feijóo had lost the initiative and was going “in the wake” of the leftist framework. Genoa will also have to analyze to what extent their multiple pacts with Vox and the fear of their entry into a possible Executive as a spur to Sánchez's resistance have taken their toll..

It is July 9, 2023. Marina Rivers, one of the most popular influencers in Spain, uploads three photos to her Instagram account. The young woman appears in a dress the same color as the classic car on which she is leaning. The message: “A ray of sunshine and a matching car on the boardwalk”. It could be one more publication of the thousands that these kids upload a day, but this time their summer pose is not liked by everyone. The reason? They accuse her of laundering the Cuban regime.

Rivers is one of the most visible faces of a group of 20 content creators, including Jorge Cyrus and Twin Melody, who was in Cuba a few weeks ago doing what they do best: promoting brands and places.. They lived a dream vacation on the largest island in the Caribbean. This was reflected in their networks. But what seemed like another enviable trip, has ended up entangled in a geopolitical brown. While they uploaded photos in Havana and showed the luxury hotels in Varadero, opponents of the communist regime raised their voices against these internet figures. Has the Cuban government —self-proclaimed communist— paid these people to promote how wonderful the Caribbean island is? “They disguise the dictatorship of Cuba!” openly criticized Dina Stars, a Cuban influencer based in Spain.

But the photos continued. Drinks, white sand and crystal clear water. Varadero and its thousand sunsets. “Knowing Cuba and its people”, published the Twin Melody, two twins who accumulate 19 million followers on TikTok thanks to their dances. It is not the first time that famous Spaniards travel to the island and advertise it as paradise, but the origin of the criticism this time does not lie directly with them, but rather with the business model of these creators and who is behind it.. They were invited by a company that is related to senior leaders of the regime, they returned on July 11 (coinciding with the anniversary of the 2021 revolts) and they have shown everyone the luxury of the island without talking about the reality of the street. A perfect cocktail that has made gozadera form.

Who pays for this?

Criticism focuses on Enjoy Travel Group, the company behind the trip. It is a Spanish SL with headquarters in Sant Cugat del Vallès, Barcelona. The controversy comes with the relationship between Cuba and the tour operator. The original entity, Enjoy Cuba, is located in Havana. The president of the Skedio Group —which encompasses all these names— was called Jordi Ballbe Sans, he was also Spanish and passed away just a few weeks ago, on June 10. After what happened, the Minister of Tourism of Cuba, Juan Carlos García Granda, did not hesitate to offer his condolences to the family publicly through his Twitter: “We regret the death of Jordi Ballbe Sans, president of the Skedio Group, due to an unfortunate accident. Our condolences to family, friends and the Skedio Travel team”.

We regret the death of Jordi Ballbe Sans, President of the Skedio group, due to an unfortunate accident.
Our condolences to family, friends and the #SkedioTravel team. pic.twitter.com/doUrBz2Awq

– Juan Carlos Garcia Granda (@JuannCarlosGG) June 10, 2023

To make matters worse, different articles published in opposition media on the other side of the pond assure that Yuniel Mesa, the CEO of Enjoy Travel Group, is one of the sons of René Mesa, the island's Minister of Construction..

The company denies at all times its relationship with the regime and assures El Confidencial that it has no ties to the Cuban government. Even Yuniel claims to have no family relationship with the leader. “Besides, the people there thanked us for coming. You have to help the country with tourism,” explains Diego Moreno, head of the Nickname representation agency, which includes all the influencers who participated in the campaign..

However, another series of coincidences caught the attention of public opinion.. The influencer expedition's return date was July 11, coinciding with the second anniversary of the massive protests in Cuba.. “The original date was going to be earlier, but it was delayed because it coincided with La velada de Ibai [an influencer event that filled the Metropolitan],” says Moreno..

Moreno claims to be aware of all this commotion, but explains that the trip is something much more normal than it seems. Everything comes as a result of the opening of a new Barcelona-Havana route promoted by the Spanish company Enjoy Travel Group as a tourist attraction. They were simply contacted to promote this and other company travel offers..

SPANISH INFLUENCERS 🇪🇸 DISGUISE THE CUBA DICTATORSHIP 🇨🇺 / THIS CUBA IS NOT REAL 💔https://t.co/ypjdHQ3EhT pic.twitter.com/EUP0xzTjpr

— Dina Stars 🖤 (@Dinastars_) July 11, 2023

“It is a two-year contract where we are committed to promoting the Dominican Republic, Mexico, the Maldives and Cuba, the destinations that the tour operator moves. It is an agreement without money, in which influencers travel without charging anything in exchange for the experience,” they comment from the agency. “In the short term, the plan is to promote flights and then promote tourism in those destinations.. Now, we have not spoken to anyone from the government, this has not been a diplomatic trip. Nothing to see”, details Moreno.

To give more substance to its commitment, Enjoy Travel Group recalls that it did not organize this tour alone. They also had the help of large hotel companies, some also Spanish. “It is a campaign of the new charter flight inaugurated on June 29 from Barcelona. And the chains with which we usually collaborate both in Cuba and in Mexico and the Dominican Republic have participated, which are Blue Diamond, Iberostar and Meliá, among others,” they explain from Enjoy.

Lifeguard for the regime or simple leisure?

This event has reopened the debate on what to do with tourism in Cuba and what the traveler should think when they decide to visit the island. In recent years, the Caribbean government has emphasized trying to attract tourists as a key sector of its economy, wounded by sanctions and the harsh context that the region is experiencing.. The opponents have taken this bet as part of their fight to end the regime and that is why they see in the people who decide to go on a trip a kind of lifeline for a regime that is running out.

The data shows that this sector already accounts for close to 10% of the gross domestic product and the Government's idea is that the figure continues to grow. In fact, the pandemic dealt a tremendous blow to its economy and caused the situation to falter even more.. Your recovery is a national challenge for financial recovery.

For now, he seems to be getting it.. The Cuban National Statistics Office reported in May that, in the first four months of 2023, Cuba received more than 1.2 million foreign visitors, 190% more than a year earlier.. And they aim to reach 3.5 million. It will be necessary to see if, intentionally or not, the trip of the 20 Spanish tiktokers helps them to achieve it.

Pedro Sánchez wrote this 23-J the epilogue to his political autobiography, Manual de Resistencia. Against all odds or “against interested odds”, as his team slipped during the last days of the campaign, the leader of the Socialists fulfilled the objective of avoiding a government alternative between PP and Vox. The option provided by the majority of surveys, including those published at the close of the polls. Sánchez noted the “failure” of the “involutionist block” with a triumphant tone on election night, on an improvised stage at the Ferraz headquarters. His investiture remains in the hands of the nationalist and independence bloc, with the need for the support of ERC, EH Bildu, PNV and BNG, and the abstention of Carles Puigdemont's party, JxCAT. However, Sánchez's resistance shields his leadership in the party and leaves him a free hand to negotiate any type of pact. Without the pressures he received in 2016, to the point of twisting his arm with his departure from the general secretariat, to force a technical abstention from the Socialists that would allow the PP to govern.

The leader of the Socialists reinforces his leadership on the back of a result with which he not only resists and blocks a change of government, but also grows in votes and seats. Four points more than in the last elections and gaining two seats, reaching 122. All this, pushed by the useful vote that has mobilized the message of fear to Vox. Sánchez, with the message of establishing himself as the containment dam against the entry of the ultra-right in an Executive led by Alberto Núñez Feijóo, has grown at the cost of the space to his left, which falls seven seats, but also with a vote borrowed from nationalist and pro-independence formations. Mainly in Catalonia, where the PSC devastates as the first force, going from 12 to 19 deputies, while ERC loses six and JxCAT, one.

In Euskadi, the PSOE also wins the elections in votes, even with a triple tie in seats with PNV and EH Bildu, and in Navarra a deputy grows to be the first force, with two representatives. The socialists hold out in other key territories such as Andalusia, where the popular ones obtain 25 seats, compared to 21 for the socialists, far from the blue tsunami expected after 28-M and winning in Seville, or as in Madrid, where they scratch one more deputy, up to 11. Nor are there a few small constituencies where the Socialists manage to sign a two-seat tie with the PP, which has allowed them to balance the weight of the blocks. In the final campaign sprint, the Socialists also looked at the “embarrassed” PP voter for his pacts with Vox in autonomous communities that would have scared off his more moderate electorate.

The feat of Sánchez turning the polls around, when after the 28-M elections there were not a few territorial leaders who thought about the day after 23-J in terms of succession, stops any internal movement. If Sánchez manages to be sworn in, his continuity as party leader will be assured for at least one more legislature. If a blockade occurs, given the foreseeable castling of Puigdemont's party, which maintains the impossible price of “amnesty and independence”, Sánchez will once again be a candidate and his political future will be decided after casting the cards again.

Feijóo's trump card to force a sort of internal rebellion in the PSOE, putting pressure on the barons with the aim of making them hold an abstention to allow the list with the most votes to govern, completely dissipated with the results of this 23-J. Sánchez has become even more empowered than he was and both his leadership and his parliamentary group are perfectly cohesive.

Instead of fissures appearing in the face of an electoral disaster like that of the municipal and regional ones, the current PSOE comes out reinforced and armored in the face of any critical current. Already to avoid hypothetical fractures, Sánchez drew up some electoral lists with people of his total confidence. Much greater armor than in the 2019 elections. In fact, on this occasion, Ferraz chose to impose his candidates on various lists, both from territories led by critical barons and by like-minded.

The statutes also give Sánchez a double shield to decide the steps to take from now on. In the 39th Federal Congress, held in 2017, a consultation with the militancy on “the government agreements in which the PSOE is a party, on the direction of voting in investiture sessions that mean facilitating the government to another political party and to decide, where appropriate, the revocation of the general secretaries” was established as “obligatory and binding”.. This same precept was ratified again, in the same terms, in the 40th Federal Congress, in 2021.. This is stated in article 348 of the text approved in the last congress. This shielding makes it almost impossible for the 2016 abstention that Feijóo is now demanding to take Vox out of the equation to be repeated. The militants of the parties have stronger ideological positions than those of the voters and, usually, than the leadership of their parties.

Sánchez improves the results of his party on 28-M in various territories and strengthens his leadership in a party where the only critical voice with institutional power is that of the Castilian-Manchego Emiliano García-Page. The electoral campaign of 23-J, with a strong leadership of José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, in contrast to Felipe González, subjected to private and public pressure to send a message of support that never came, also suggests that in the PSOE there will not be a single old guard far from the current leadership. After throwing the 23-J campaign behind him when the party needed him the most due to his bad expectations, Zapatero emerges with greater legitimacy earned by hand. At least, among the militants, always more ideologically inclined than the voters.

Zapatero assured during the campaign that “the PSOE is extraordinarily united around the leadership of President Sánchez”. A position that coincided with the promotion of various manifestos by ex-leaders and former institutional positions of the PSOE in different federations to support the government's action. The last one, with the title of Voting for the PSOE, was signed by former socialist ministers with both Zapatero and Felipe González, including José Bono, Ramón Jáuregui, Joaquín Almunia, Matilde Fernández, Javier Solana, Mercedes Cabrera, José María Maravall, Carlos Solchaga or Ángeles González-Sinde.

This latest manifesto maintains more impartial positions, although other previous ones have a clearer orientation in an organic key, such as the one entitled The oldest socialism in Madrid, with Pedro Sánchez, or the one previously launched by former Andalusian leaders against the “demonization” of the President of the Government. In the final stretch of the campaign, the veterans of the PSOE-M held an act of support for Sánchez in Ferraz, led by the former mayor of Madrid Juan Barranco, in which they stressed that, unlike other socialist comrades, they are not from “the brotherhood of holy reproach”.. “We do not belong to the brotherhood of the holy reproach, we belong to the culture of the PSOE, to the defense of the best socialist values,” insisted Barranco, in statements collected by EFE, alluding to former socialist charges critical of Sánchez's PSOE.

Without reproaches and more legitimized than ever, Sánchez reappears this 23-J and shields his leadership. About the epic, which he already resorted to in the last rallies, and which he pointed out in a premonitory way at the end of the campaign: “We fell, we got up, we pedaled against the clock, we climbed all the unimaginable climbs” and now “we have a few meters left for the final sprint”.

• Results general elections 2023 in Spain: who has won the elections, scrutiny and reactions
• Elections Madrid | elections Catalonia | Galician elections | Basque Country elections | Valencian elections
• Government pacts calculator: this is the sum between PP and Vox and PSOE and Sumar

“It is an unmitigated cataclysm”. The clear x-ray of these legislative elections is carried out by Abel Riu, founder and director of the Catalonia Global Institute (CGI) and collected by the Center d'Estudis Independentistes (CEI), both entities clearly pro-sovereignty. The numbers leave no doubt: secessionism has lost more than 700,000 votes compared to the last general elections. For example, a button: ERC had achieved a total of 874,859 votes in November 2019. This 23-J obtained, according to the count carried out with 99% of the votes counted, 458,946 votes. JxCat, for its part, which achieved 530,225 votes in 2019, now stands at 389,548. The CUP, which had risen to 246,971 votes 4 years ago, now went to 98,075. In total, some 705,000 fewer votes.

In pro-independence circles, not only this historical downturn is highlighted, but also the quantitative leap of constitutionalism. But the concern is not only that the PSC has swept the land and achieved a historic result, going from 794,666 votes to more than 1.2 million (that is, 400,000 more votes and 19 seats).. What stings the most in sovereignism is the quantitative leap of the PP, which although it obtained one seat less than ERC and JxCat (it achieved 6 representatives, four more than it had up to now), but actually won them in votes, going from 287,714 votes to 464,319.

This unpredictable situation may be of decisive importance in the near future.. The CEI disseminated a reflection by Jordi Baeza that can provide some of the future keys: “If the processional crash is confirmed, with these data on abstention there is a market for a new strong pro-independence party in the Parliament of Catalonia”. The consequence, then, would be a third way that is currently still being developed and that would go through a new party or a civic list, as the Catalan National Assembly (ANC) is studying..

La Resistència, one of the most combative platforms in the Catalan sovereignist panorama, sent a reflection to its activists. “Participation in all populations with a pro-independence majority falls. The abstention is consolidated pending the recount of the null vote. The second electoral host is consolidated”. But the most important thing was the subsequent announcement: “Let's prepare the third host for the elections of the Parliament of Catalonia,” he claimed, while standing out among expressions of victory: “Successful activist of mobilization and punishment of lying parties. Girona is the way”. The ghost of the ANC's civic list looms on the pro-independence horizon.

Marta Niubó, a well-known activist with tens of thousands of followers, announced: “Some must have gone blank when they found out that abstention is serious. No more teasing. It has cost us, but we have finally realized that we have the power”. This activist accused the pro-independence parties of the situation: “When they try to make you feel guilty in a while, remember that they have had 52% in the Parliament of Catalonia. They have done absolutely nothing. Do not lose sight at any time who is the miserable here”.

misleading self congratulations

But, what happened in Catalonia for this unmitigated cataclysm? The fault lies with the civil war within secessionism. Due to that fratricidal war, in which the most radical sector of sovereignism demanded abstention. In these elections, ERC ceases to be the first force in a general election, to the benefit of the PSC. The Republicans go from first to third force. JxCat, for its part, resisted that crisis more because it only dropped one seat, although it left almost 141,000 votes along the way. There is another very important piece of information: the extremism's commitment to abstention left the CUP without seats, which from two representatives has become extra-parliamentary.

The ERC candidate, Gabriel Rufián, congratulated himself because his party continues to be “the first party in the independence sphere.” And Míriam Nogueras, from JxCat, assured that “we have known how to maintain our position. We will not make Pedro Sánchez president for nothing. We have understood the message. Our priority is Catalonia, not the governability of the Spanish State. We have memories and Pedro Sánchez has many duties with Catalonia, “he said. A senior leader of Junts pointed out to El Confidencial: “ERC is the one who has truly lost out. His unconditional support for the PSOE has led to the vote of punishment, which has not happened with Junts”. But the truth is that between ERC and JxCat, no matter how much self-congratulation they stage, more than 555,000 votes were left in these elections.

Despite everything, no one likes the results and the sovereignists have brought out the scimitars to settle accounts with their rivals. As soon as the first polls were known, even without reliable results, the reproaches multiplied among 'indepes'. The former president of the ANC, Elisenda Paluzie, a former ERC candidate, had a scuffle with Anna Barnadas, secretary of the Climate Action Ministry, who blamed the abstentionists for the decline of the independence movement and the rise of the PP. “To celebrate the abstentionists. We have a very cute country,” said the high office of the Generalitat. “Your party loses deputies and votes and your reaction is to blame the voters. You have an important public position that we all pay for. Think a little before you chirp,” Paluzie replied..

“Girona is the way”

There is another important lesson from the 23-J elections: these elections have illuminated a new path for independence and a new slogan: “Girona is the way”. It refers to the significant increase in abstentionism in Girona, the main independence stronghold of Catalonia. In other words, not even in Girona, the demarcation in which it has the greatest presence (the mayor of Girona capital is, precisely, from the CUP), has the anti-capitalist formation managed to maintain the representative it had up to now. It is the embodiment of the aforementioned cataclysm.

The slogan 'Girona is the way' spread like wildfire precisely at 8 in the afternoon this Sunday, when the polling stations closed and the counting of the votes for the 23-J general elections began. The result was not known, but it was known that in Catalonia abstention had skyrocketed. “Thanks to the abstentionists, who are visually demonstrating that Catalonia is not Spain”, encouraged a pro-sovereignty influencer, attaching a map of Spain with the colors of participation and with Catalonia in yellow, differentiating herself from the rest of the communities. “It was as easy as not voting, neither null nor white”. The road passes through Girona, but it can lead directly to a third way, a unilateralist formation that capitalizes on the discontent of the independence movement

Galicia did not fail Feijóo. At least in his fiefdom, the results clearly favored the PP in the first elections, with his successor Alfonso Rueda leading the Xunta and the party. The popular ones snatched three deputies from the socialists, so that from the tie at 10 in November 2019 it has gone to a 13-7 in favor of the party that governs Galicia. Add endorses the two deputies that Podemos had, although the Galician Yolanda Díaz does not improve the percentage of votes of the last generals in her territory. The BNG maintains the deputy it had in A Coruña and Vox continues to be excluded from the Galician constituencies.

The PP won in three of the provinces, A Coruña, Lugo and Ourense, but not in Pontevedra, where the three deputies tied with the Socialists.. The distribution is 4-2 in A Coruña and 3-1 in Lugo and Ourense in favor of the PP. Regarding the last generals, the transfer was from a PSdeG deputy in each of those three provinces that has gone to the sack of the popular. It is a very discreet result for the new general secretary of the Galician socialists, Valentín González Formoso, with less than a year to go before the regional elections, the first in which the PP will run with Alfonso Rueda as a candidate.

The PSdeG had come to achieve a historic event in April 2019: the first victory in votes, which it would lose by a few points in the electoral repetition of November of the same year. Formoso arrives, therefore, weakened for the next appointment of the regional. But in the Galician PP optimism is not triggered either, given the expectations that had been generated. The result distances, although it does not rule out, the possibility of an electoral advance, which was counted on in political circles in the event of a large majority that took the Galician Feijóo to La Moncloa.

The PP has returned in Galicia to percentages above 40%. With 98% scrutinized, it reaches 43.54% of support, which is almost 12 points more than in November 2019. The punishment in seats is especially strong for the PSOE if it is considered that it has lost three deputies with a drop in votes of just 1.40 points, up to 29.84%. Yolanda Díaz's party, meanwhile, loses one point, going from 12.64% of Podemos-EU to 10.93%. Even in his province, A Coruña, he dropped from 12.71% to 12.16% on 23-J, although he raised his percentage to 17.01% in Ferrol, his hometown, compared to 15.95% added by Podemos. In A Coruña it adds one of its two Galician seats, while the other falls in Pontevedra, the only province where there is a tie between socialists and popular.

The polarization of the campaign frustrated the expectations of the BNG, which has to settle for the deputy it had in the province of A Coruña. His most optimistic calculations, backed by some survey, pointed to the achievement of representation in Pontevedra and even in Ourense, but finally the Galician nationalists were left with 9.48% of votes, 1.39% less than in the last general elections.. The national spokesperson of the BNG, Ana Pontón, has already offered that deputy to the left-wing bloc.

The distribution between blocks is favorable in Galicia for the PP, with its 13 deputies compared to the 10 that PSdeG, Díaz's party and the BNG add up to.. It is not a bad result for Rueda, if one takes into account that the regional elections are traditionally the elections in which the popular ones are the strongest in Galicia. However, in those elections initially scheduled for next summer, he will play with the handicap of an electoral poster in which Feijóo will no longer be part of, the architect of the last four absolute majorities of the PP in Galicia.

Where tradition has not failed is the massive support of the provinces of Ourense and Lugo for the Popular Party. In the first elections without José Manuel Baltar in the Provincial Council, that province gave practically half of the votes to Rueda and Feijóo's party: 49.87%. The 50% barrier was exceeded in Lugo, where the PP swept 50.28%, almost 12 points more than in the last general elections

• General elections in Spain 2023: results
• Results: Madrid | Barcelona | Valencia | Seville | Saragossa
• Candidates: Feijóo | Sanchez | Abascal | Yolanda Diaz
• Electoral programs: VOX | PP | PSOE | Add
• This is how the networks have reacted to the breaking of votes at the ballot box

The general elections have marked the plans of millions of Spaniards who have decided to go to the polls instead of voting by mail. On this electoral Sunday, the majority of citizens have come to vote in the early hours of the morning, mainly to escape the heat in the central hours of the day. The networks have been filled this July 23 with photographs in the polling stations and many celebrities have joined the trend.

Although public figures do not usually reveal their political position, many have used their networks to call for participation. The best-known faces from different fields have shared images on the way to their polling station, voting or with the envelopes ready to throw them into the ballot box. Some like Almudena Cid have had to get up even earlier. The ex-gymnast has told in her profile that she had had to be vocal at the polling station.

Mario Casas has published a video voting before going to the gym to train. From the world of interpretation, the actresses Clara Lago, Dafne Fernández and Paula Echevarría have also shared images with the ballots inside the envelopes to vote.

Major fashion names have also addressed their polling stations. Jon Kortajanera has published a photograph with a very clear message on his Instagram stories. The model has posed with a shirt that made clear one of his priorities to choose a political party in the 2023 general elections: “climate change changes”. The designer Vicky Martín Berrocal already announced last night that she was going to sleep early because “it is an important day”. The businesswoman has shared a selfie with her daughter after exercising her right.

Ágatha Ruiz de la Prada has crossed paths with Alberto Núñez Feijóo when she was going to vote. The designer has shared a photo of the coincidence. For her part, María Pombo has also published a photograph voting this morning.

The loser has won. And the winner has lost, in such a way that the day of 23J has been much more conducive to Sánchez than indicated by the political inertia —28M—, the polls, the electoral campaign and even the media consensus regarding funerals.

It will be necessary to organize an act of reparation for Tezanos, erect a monument to Zapatero and recognize Sánchez's reputation as an indestructible president. The Resistance Manual is still in force. And it is not that the PSOE has won the elections, but the increase in deputies compared to 2019, the drive of Sumar and the loyalty of the independent partners, mean that Pedro Sánchez's successor in Moncloa is Pedro Sánchez.

The far-right fear campaign has worked. And the regional agreements with Vox have penalized Feijóo. The popular leader may say that the result of the PP is excellent compared to four years ago, but the increase in seats —from 89 to 136— is inexpressive, frustrating.

The popular leader has underestimated the hidden vote. And it has disappointed the Social Democratic and Ciudadanos voters who have distanced themselves from the PP after the agreements with the extreme right have prospered.

Sánchez has managed to attract the suffragette who was suspicious of Vox. And he has turned Catalonia —and the Basque Country— into the political platform that best amplifies his campaign and his reputation. Not only because the PSC's constitutionalist brand has been reinforced, but because Sánchez has vampirized the sovereignist satellites. Frankenstein has eaten Esquerra Republicana, more or less as he has put the PNV in the clutches of Bildu.

Does that mean that the sovereignists most loyal to Sánchez could rethink the resuscitation of Frankenstein? It has not been convenient for them to support him in electoral terms, but it is hard to believe that a blocking position will be imposed and the corresponding electoral repetition will ensue..

It is impressive that one of the privileged keys to the investiture majority is held by Puigdemont's party, reluctant to agree with Sánchez and a decisive force in the future of the socialist leader in Monclovense. That is why it makes sense to wonder the price that the expresident will put on his triumphant return. And the way in which the self-determination referendum is exposed again.

Ruled out that Feijóo can aspire to the succession of Sánchez. And considering the aspiration of the list with the most votes to be useless, the question does not consist in deciding whether or not Peter the Great is going to be president, but rather how he is going to achieve it..

It makes sense to take stock of Sánchez's successes no matter how much disbelief they produce. The campaign of the impostor who rubbed Feijóo all his lies has worked. The effectiveness of economic measures has been demonstrated, the fervor of retirees. It has been a success leaning on the crutch of Yolanda Díaz. It has even been a success to advance the elections. And not because of the anomaly that voting in July implies, but because the traumatic scenario of 28M offered the socialist leader to unmask the pacts between the PP and Vox. It is the trap that Feijóo accepted without realizing the relevance that mamoneo with the extreme right entailed. It is not the same to win the great debate as to win the elections, nor is it the same to take advantage of the widespread aversion to sanchismo as to turn the deterioration of the PSOE into an excuse to launch a campaign without exciting ideas or proposals.. The map of Spain is blue, with the exception of the Canary Islands, Andalusia and the Basque Country, okay, but the blurred image of the victory suffers from its uselessness and the very small difference in votes. The distance is resolved in less than one point and in a matter of 100,000 voters. There is no more failure for Feijóo than Sánchez's heir being Sánchez himself. Frankenstein II may be a worse horror movie than the first.

• General elections in Spain 2023: results
• Results: Madrid | Barcelona | Valencia | Seville | Saragossa
• Candidates: Feijóo | Sanchez | Abascal | Yolanda Diaz
• Electoral programs: VOX | PP | PSOE | Add

Times have changed a lot since 1977, when the first general elections were held in Spain since the start of the Transition. At that time, we did not have the Internet or social networks, and on our televisions we could only tune in to the Spanish Television channels. But there were things that have remained since then: after the closure of the polling stations, the citizens stayed the night in suspense waiting for the recount to know the results. And it was at that moment, to liven up that wait, when TVE took the opportunity to broadcast a musical gala and resorted to a figure that guaranteed to reassure and content the Spaniards: Julio Iglesias himself..

In addition, for this very special occasion, the famous singer arrived with a new and important song under his arm, which he premiered live: I am a Truhán, I am a Lord, which since then has become one of the most emblematic and recognizable songs in his repertoire.. As Iglesias himself explained at the gala, the song was written in collaboration with Manuel de la Calva and Ramón Arcusa, the members of the Dynamic Duo. This piece of Spanish television history has been rescued by @JulioIglesiasES, an unofficial Twitter account dedicated to the popular artist.

🔙🇪🇸 After the first general elections in Spain in 1977, a musical gala was held to liven up the wait for the scrutiny. It was then that Julio Iglesias starred in a historic moment, when he premiered the song I am a Truhán, I am a Lord in rigorous direct. pic.twitter.com/hv96CHr1lN

– Julio Iglesias Universal (@JulioIglesiasES) July 21, 2023

Iglesias comments that the song has a certain autobiographical touch, but also points out that in its lyrics “there are things that are true and things that are lies”..

The democratic reflection of the singer

In another video released by the same account, we can see how Julio Iglesias ended his speech with a message of harmony and democracy for all Spaniards.. “Each one has voted for his ideal. Hopefully all of us Spaniards will come out winning from this ideal,” he said before finishing off his performance with the song Minueto.

🗳️🇪🇸 This is how Julio Iglesias closed his performance in the first democratic general elections in Spain in 1977: «Today has been a day of harmony for all of us, each one of us has voted for his ideal. Hopefully all Spaniards will come out winning from this ideal». pic.twitter.com/vNvUeZ6w9g

– Julio Iglesias Universal (@JulioIglesiasES) July 23, 2023

Finally, the winner of those elections was the UCD of Adolfo Suárez, who could be sworn in as Prime Minister after staying close to an absolute majority.

Close to the end of the scrutiny, the scenario left by the results of the general elections of 23-J requires that the parties reach agreements to form a majority. Neither the sum of PP and Vox nor that of PSOE and Sumar are enough to achieve an absolute majority. Given how complex it will be to reach an agreement with an absolute majority, the candidate for the presidency of the government must aspire to get more yeses than noes in a second vote in Congress.

Pedro Sanchez, Alberto Nunez Feijoo, Santiago Abascal and Yolanda Diaz. Candidates, party leaders and visible image of the national political scene that face negotiations due to the need for support. Use this tool to consult the possible combinations of agreements to review the different options. Select a candidate and choose between the option of yes, no or abstain to see what chances they would have in an investiture session.