The PP wins the general elections of 23-J, but does not have a sufficient majority with Vox to govern. Neither of the two blocks reaches an absolute majority of 176 seats. With 99% scrutinized, Alberto Núñez Feijóo and Pedro Sánchez obtain 136 and 122 seats, respectively. In votes, the advantage of the popular over the socialists is just over a point and 300,000 votes. The block on the right has 169 deputies, with 33 from Vox, and the one on the left 153, with 31 from Sumar. Neither of the two blocks reaches the amount necessary to guarantee governability. The Socialists not only resist, but they improve two deputies compared to 2019 and rise almost four points, truncating the options for a change of government under the leadership of Feijóo.
The fortress of the PSC, the first force in Catalonia with 19 deputies, is one of the main granaries of the PSOE. The socialists hold out in other key territories such as Andalusia, where the popular ones obtain 25 seats from the popular ones compared to 21 for the socialists, or as in Madrid, where they scratch one more deputy, up to eleven. In Navarra and Extremadura, the PSOE is the leading force. The popular would grow a total of 47 seats, by absorbing Ciudadanos and eating ground from a weakened Vox, although insufficient to guarantee a change of government.
PSOE and Sumar, with the support of their parliamentary partners during this legislature of ERC, PNV, EH Bildu and BNG, would reach 171, above the sum of the right, even if they achieved the support of the UPN representative. In the second investiture vote, more yeses than noes are needed and an abstention from Carles Puigdemont's party, JxCat, would be essential. Nothing suggests that the sector of the rupturist independence movement is going to provide an executive of Sánchez without it being in exchange for his maxims of “amnesty and independence”.. “We will not make Sánchez president for nothing”, assured the post-convergent Míriam Nogueras. Feijóo would not have any options to govern either, beyond the already ruled out abstention of the PSOE to let the voted list govern.
The block made up of nationalists, independentistas and regionalists suffers in these elections, although it could be decisive in the face of a hypothetical investiture of Pedro Sánchez. In Catalonia, ERC drops from 13 to seven deputies, while JxCat drops one, from eight to seven. Participation in this autonomous community fell six points, while the general average increased by two points, up to 68%. The CUP becomes an extra-parliamentary force.
EH Bildu would give the PNV a surprise, with six and five seats, respectively, when counting the seat for Navarra. In Euskadi, the Socialists make the most of the useful vote discourse on the left flank and at this moment they would be the force with the most votes in this territory, although sharing five deputies with PNV and EH Bildu in a triple tie. The leader of this last formation, Arnaldo Otegi, who in 2019 abstained from the investiture, has already announced that “for Bildu it will not be. we are not equidistant. If it depends on us, we keep our word. There will be no government of the reactionary bloc in the Spanish State”. In Galicia, the BNG retains its seat, which voted in favor of the investiture of the PSOE four years ago.
UPN and Coalición Canaria, would dry up one seat each. The Canarian nationalists have already intoned the “we with the extreme right, no”, although neither PP and Vox would have enough with these two deputies to get more yeses than noes with the progressive block and the nationalist and independentista against. Teruel Existe would be left without parliamentary representation. The other party of Empty Spain with options, Soria Ya, is also left out of Congress.
ERC and EH Bildu have already raised the price of a hypothetical investiture of Pedro Sánchez. Mainly the Republicans. The conditions set by the Catalan president, Pere Aragonès, for ERC to support a new investiture of Pedro Sánchez, in the event that the majority of the left joins Congress after the elections on 23-J, include ending the fiscal deficit that Catalonia is dragging, the transfer of Cercanías and advancing towards self-determination. Pedro Sánchez denied in the final stretch of the campaign that he was going to agree on a hypothetical investiture with the votes of ERC in exchange for advancing towards a self-determination referendum within the framework of the dialogue table.
“I understand that we are in a campaign,” he remarked to discredit these claims, to immediately clarify forcefully that there will be no referendum on self-determination if he continues to lead the Government. “Neither has there been nor will there be,” he stressed.. Both “by personal and political conviction”, as he argued, and also because “no constitution in the world recognizes the right to segregation”.
Those of Santiago Abascal suffer a bump, going back to 31 seats. Very far from its 52 parliamentarians of this legislature. With 29 seats, Yolanda Díaz's project remains seven deputies below those obtained by Unidas Podemos and Más País four years ago. The Sumar confluence led by Yolanda Díaz, remains above the psychological barrier of 30 seats, although the future of this neonate confluence will depend on whether it goes to a scenario of blockade and electoral repetition, or manages to form a coalition with the PSOE.
The useful vote has narrowed their options and is not even done with the consolation prize for third place. The future of space to his left, the Sumar confluence led by Yolanda Díaz, enters a phase of greater uncertainty after this Sunday. The concentration of votes to the right and left has made bipartisanship recover ground, going from 49% in 2019 to 64%. Sumar and Vox contract their representation and remain in the majority of small and medium-sized constituencies.