The decree of the anti-drought plan approved this Thursday in an extraordinary Council of Ministers amounts to a total of 2,190 million euros. The direct support measures for the agricultural sector are quantified at 784 million, although the Minister of Agriculture, Luis Planas, has made progress since these aids may be reviewed depending on how the situation evolves.. Of the direct aid, 355 million euros will go to the meat and dairy farming sectors, 276.7 million for agriculture and five for beekeeping.

The decree also extends the subsidy to agricultural insurance already contracted to cover 70% of the cost of the drought insurance policy in rainfed crops and contemplates flexibility measures in the application of the new PAC, such as the extension to 30 June of the deadline for submitting aid applications. On the other hand, investments in infrastructure have different items, such as 700 million euros in priority actions in the basins most affected to improve water resources, such as desalination plants or reuse of urban water..

Today we approve measures to protect agriculture and deal with drought.

It is time to listen to the science and the experts, and to accelerate a just ecological transition that leaves no one behind.

— Yolanda Díaz (@Yolanda_Diaz_) May 11, 2023

From the Executive they have insisted that this package is “complementary” to the aid for the sector already approved, such as the reduction of 1,807 million euros in personal income tax to 828,000 farmers and ranchers or another 650 million in extraordinary direct aid for livestock sectors and citrus to alleviate the cost of fertilizers, as well as the promotion of agricultural insurance with 257.7 million euros in 2022 and 317.7 million in 2023.

The prolonged situation of drought in Spain, with an accumulated rainfall of 50% of the normal average since the beginning of the year according to Aemet (in April it was only 22% of the normal average), is mainly affecting the Guadalquivir, Guadalete and the inmates of Catalonia. Despite the fact that the water reserves are at 48.9% of capacity, the Government assures that they are in a position to ensure the supply in the coming months after the approval of this shock plan.

Government partners, however, consider that more ambitious measures should be taken and the second vice president, Yolanda Díaz, has focused on the need to modify the water law “to avoid water cuts in rural municipalities”. Through her Twitter account, the also leader of Sumar has opted to launch “public water banks” to make “a fairer and more reasonable distribution of water”.

From the PP, who have described this aid package, approved the same day the campaign officially starts, as “electoralist” and demanded the convening of a Conference of Presidents to address a national pact on water. A demand that the government spokesperson, Isabel Rodríguez, has already rejected due to the electoral context and defending the forums in which these measures have been discussed, such as the Drought Table. Moncloa sources also recall that currently “there is already a great water pact”, in reference to the hydrological plans worked on for four years and “with more than a hundred meetings” with territorial administrations, users and social organizations.

Neither Genoa nor the barons of the PP entered yesterday to criticize the substance of the measures approved in the extraordinary Council of Ministers this Thursday, but they did not hide their discomfort at the fact that the Executive has “ignored” for months the proposals they have made different autonomous communities to alleviate a “borderline situation” in their respective territories, and now try to claim the revenue from these proposals just two weeks before elections that are decided regionally and locally. The Minister of Agriculture, Luis Planas, has responded that the measures adopted are the necessary ones and also those agreed with the regional administrations and the sector.

From the PSOE, they unlink this aid package from the electoral strategy that they have been maintaining with different announcements focused on different target audiences, such as housing policy or the recent discounts for young people to travel by train in Spain or Europe.. “There is a drought and the Government has to offer solutions,” they argue. The socialist barons will already celebrate this Wednesday an initiative that will give them oxygen among the electorate linked to the primary sector. Both the like-minded and the most critical of Ferraz.

Pedro Sánchez gives ammunition to his territorial leaders to sell these measures during two key weeks, thus trying to retain the vote of the countryside and close the way to the PP in an issue, such as the water war, which the popular have capitalized as a weapon. Sanchez, at the same time, seeks to neutralize the potential mobilizations in the countryside, channeling them through dialogue in the Mesa de la Sequía, since several of the demands launched in this forum will be part of the anti-drought plan.

The PSIB would win the regional elections on May 28 with 31.5% of the votes, followed by the PP (26.1%) and Vox, which would be the third force, with 13.6% of the votes.. MÉS per Mallorca would be the fourth most voted party, with 10.8%, followed by Unidas Podemos (7.4%).

The CIS has published this Thursday its macro-survey on the regional and municipal elections called for next May 28, a study that will later be followed by a flash poll that will have to be released no later than Monday, May 22.

According to the data PSIB and PP add four points compared to the results of 2019, while Vox grows five points. For their part, CS and PI experienced decreases of about five percentage points.

The survey of this Thursday, however, does not provide an estimate of seats in the Balearic Islands as a result of the size of the sample -418 interviews- and the specificities of the electoral constituencies.

Throughout Spain, the study has around 20,000 interviews and includes vote estimation and seat allocation data in each of the twelve autonomies that are called upon to renew their Parliaments –Madrid, Comunidad Valenciana, Aragón, Principado de Asturias, Cantabria , Navarra, Castilla-La Mancha, Extremadura, Murcia, La Rioja, the Balearic Islands and the Canary Islands–, as well as the autonomous cities of Ceuta and Melilla.

Regarding the results in the municipal elections at the national level, the PSOE would manage to be the first force with 31.7%, the PP 27.3%, Podemos and its confluences would reach 7.9% and Vox would reach 6.8 %.

The CIS also includes the intention to vote directly, the result of the question 'which party do you plan to vote for?' and that gives 23.4% to the PSIB, 18.8% to the PP, 8.8% to Vox, 7.5% to MÉS per Mallorca, 4.5% to UP, 1.3% to CS and 0.3% to El PI.

Regarding the evaluation of the leaders, none reaches 5, although Francina Armengol (PSIB) is close to passing (4.9). Lluís Apesteguia (MÉS) and Marga Prohens (PP) receive a 4.2; Josep Melià (El PI) a 4.18; Antònia Jover (UP), a 4.15; Patricia Guasp (CS), a 3.7; and Jorge Campos (Vox) a 3.24.

Among the candidates, according to the CIS, Francina Armengol is the best known and only 3.6% of those surveyed say they do not know her. For their part, 18% of those surveyed do not know who Marga Prohens is.. In contrast, Lluís Apesteguia and Antònia Jover are unknown to more than 40% of those surveyed. Of the rest, 35.3% do not know Josep Melià; 32.8% to Patricia Guasp; and 28.7% do not know Jorge Campos.

Situation of the Autonomous Community

The CIS survey published this Thursday also includes the opinion that citizens have today regarding the situation in the Balearic Islands.

Thus, 50.1% of those surveyed consider that the situation of the archipelago is 'good', while 23.6% and 14.6%, respectively, believe that it is 'bad' or 'very bad'.. Only 2.6% of the participants in the survey affirm that the situation of the Islands is now 'very good'.

Along the same lines, 35.5% think that the Balearic Islands are 'better' than four years ago and 28% believe that they are 'worse'.

Likewise, for 38% of those surveyed, Francina Armengol's management in the last year as head of the Government has been “good” and “very good” for 5.7%. However, it was ‘bad’ for 25.9% and ‘very bad’ for 20.5% of respondents.

At the same time, for 32.7% the current Executive knows ‘little’ about the problems of the Balearic Islands while 31.1% believe that ‘quite a lot’. Likewise, 25.9% consider that it does not know how to solve the problems of the citizenship, while 28.1% believe that ‘enough’.

The CIS also asks what the citizen gives more importance when going to vote and in this case, respondents give special importance to the program (58.8%) and the party (26.7%). The candidate, however, is only the most important thing for 11%.

The CIS has carried out a pre-election survey on the occasion of the municipal and regional elections to be held on May 28, which includes vote estimation data in the Valladolid City Council, in which the PSOE of the current mayor Óscar Puente would repeat as the most voted list, with 37.6% of the votes and between 11 and 12 councilors (it currently has 11); ahead of the PP, which would also grow to 33.2% and could reach between 9 and 11 councilors and with VTLP as the third force with 13.6% of the votes and 3 or 4 representatives.

In Valladolid, according to these data, the PSOE will be the first political force at the polls on May 28 with 37.6% of the votes (almost 2 points more than in 2019, when it obtained 35.7%), which that would serve to at least repeat the current number of municipal seats and even win one up to twelve.

The Popular Party, with Jesús Julio Carnero as candidate for Mayor, would achieve 33.2% of the votes -three points more than in 2019 when it was left with 30%- and would be between nine and eleven councilors -currently it has nine representatives-.

In this situation, Puente would need to agree again to be sworn in as mayor, since he would require two or three more supports, which could once again come from the left-wing platform Valladolid Take the Word – a confluence of Izquierda Unida, Podemos, Equo and Alianza Verde-. This formation would be the third most voted force, with 13.6% of the votes, a percentage slightly higher than the one it received in 2019 (13.5%) and which then provided it with three councilors. On this occasion, the CIS assures that it could repeat that figure or reach four councilors.

Vox, fourth force

In this way, the current members of the government team (PSOE and VTLP) would have between 14 and 16 councilors in the Corporation.

Vox would be the fourth most voted force with 9.2%, it would grow almost 3 points compared to the last municipal elections (6.35 percent in 2019) and the CIS attributes between 2 and 3 councilors.

Ciudadanos would disappear from the municipal Corporation, since the estimate foresees that it will obtain 1.8% of the votes, compared to the 12.6% it received in 2019.