All posts by Luis Moreno

Moreno Luis - is a business and economics reporter based in Barcelona. Prior to joining the BNE24 he was economics editor of the BBC Spaine and worked as an economics and political reporter for Murcia Tuday.

The worst scenario in the face of a collapse of the Atlantic current: advance of the ice, drought and a slowdown in global warming

A few days ago the alarms went off: the Atlantic Circular Current (AMOC) could collapse. A study carried out by researchers from the University of Copenhagen and published in the journal Nature assured that this meteorological phenomenon could occur between 2025 and 2095, focusing on the year 2057.. The last time this happened on Earth was 150,000 years ago and we have heard its name more than once, especially thanks to the cinema: the Ice Age or last ice age.. But why does this occur? What does it mean when the Atlantic current collapses? What consequences could I produce on the planet? And in Spain? Is this phenomenon likely to occur in this century?

“This scientific article is one of the many that try to analyze ocean currents, something very important and that is certainly a great unknown of our climate system,” says Rubén del Campo, spokesman for the State Meteorological Agency, Aemet. “This work goes to say that they have detected some signs that the Atlantic current is slowing down and that it could even collapse.. Although they put it at 2057, they give a wide range,” he explains, adding that “there are other experts who disagree and it must be said that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) considers that it is very unlikely that this collapse will occur in the century XXI”.

For his part, the professor of Physical Geography at the University of Barcelona, Javier Martín-Vide, endorses the theory of the Danish scientists. “The fact that the current of the oceans was interrupted was already talked about more than fifteen years ago, in 2007, and then it cooled down a bit.. It is very probable that this will happen on the dates indicated in the study”, he says, also emphasizing that “Nature magazine is the most important scientifically and what they publish goes through important filters”. The expert also assures that “from a physical point of view it is coherent and consistent”.

But what is an Atlantic Circular Current (AMOC) collapse? Del Campo explains it in a simplified way, although he emphasizes that it is a “very complex phenomenon”: “There is an ocean current in the Atlantic that transports warm waters from low latitudes to high latitudes. In the North Atlantic this superficial circulation sinks because there is a greater density (salinity and temperature) of the waters and it returns through the depths to the south”. Del Campo also adds that “due to factors such as the loss of ice by frozen masses such as Greenland, fresh water is added to the circulation and then the sinking of cold waters is not as effective and slows down, which can have consequences on the climate that translate into less heat transport from south to north”.

Because of this, the slowing of the current could lead to “abrupt climate change in Europe”. Thus, ice advances would occur in areas located further north, such as Iceland or northern Scandinavia and “global warming would be slowed down on the continent.”

In this sense, Martín-Vide gives a very clear example that makes us understand how the AMOC works and what would happen with its possible collapse.. “If we compare the New York winter with that of Lisbon or Porto, the cities are at the same sea level, bathed by the same ocean, almost on the same parallel and at the same latitude,” he explains, and continues: “In New York, winter It is harsh, there is snowfall every year, while in Lisbon there is hardly any snow and frost is very rare.This is because our Atlantic coasts are bathed by a branch of the Gulf Stream that is part of the Atlantic and is warm. In the United States the Labrador current, which is cold, goes down.”

This is how the Atlantic Circular Current (AMOC) works. WIKIPEDIA/Hole Oceanographic Institution

The professor also assures that in the event of this disruption, “there would be a paradox that, given global warming, we would have a hiatus of a few years. Winters would be colder in this western part of Europe until this circuit, which affects the entire planet, is reconstituted,” he points out.. “The bottom line is that the behavior of the weather has a lot to do with the ocean, the weather as a whole, and the atmosphere.”

In this sense, Del Campo adds that another of the consequences would be that “rainfall patterns would vary clearly and Western Europe and Spain would become drier areas, where rainfall would be less. In Spain, perhaps there could also be more winters cold, but there are many uncertainties,” he asserts.

The smallest extent of ice in history

In short, the main cause of this future collapse is climate change, since it is this that causes the melting of the ice masses on the planet.. This is what in scientific language is known as a Heinrich event: events or episodes that occurred during the period of the last ice age (Wisconsin) and in which waves of icebergs broke off the glaciers and crossed the North Atlantic. Icebergs carried bulk rocks eroded by glaciers and when they melted offshore, they fell to the bottom as drifting debris.

According to Del Campo, the melting of frozen masses is a feasible event, especially in Greenland and the Arctic. “At the beginning of the 80s, in the Arctic there were seven million square kilometers covered by ice, now this extension is around 4 and a half million. There has been a significant decline of around 13% per decade,” says. “That in summer, but in winter it is also observed that in about 18 years there has been an ice loss of 16%.”

In addition, the Greenland glaciers are melting “6 or 7 times faster than 25 or 30 years ago”, something much more problematic than the melting of the Arctic “because it does raise sea levels”.. In addition, in Antarctica, where according to the expert “there is more uncertainty”, it has been possible to verify that “winter is being (there it is the cold season now) with less ice extension since there are records”. In Del Campo's words, this “is a very unusual situation.”

The worst case scenario

And although many scientists reiterate that the Atlantic event will not occur in the coming decades, the worst possible scenario in the face of climate change and the collapse of currents would be devastating for some areas of the planet. “Massive melting of the ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica could occur with catastrophic consequences. Total stoppage of the current would change the climate, but massive melting could lead to catastrophic sea level rise in densely populated coastal cities.”

NASA responds to Grusch's revelation and will publish a report on what they know about aliens: "Next month there will be an answer"

The director of NASA, Bill Nelson, has confirmed this Thursday that the American agency has appointed a “committee of very distinguished scientists” to prepare a report on extraterrestrial life “in the face of all suspicions”.

In a press conference held in Argentina, after a meeting with President Alberto Fernández, Nelson explained that the deadline for disseminating responses is around one month: “This committee is deliberating and will release its report publicly next month.

“In the meantime, I can tell you that they are going to use our equipment in space to try to identify these phenomena,” Nelson said, in response to the alien controversy surrounding the United States after former officer Grusch told Capitol Hill that the Pentagon has been aware of the extraterrestrial presence for years.

NASA and the Casa Rosada have signed the union of the Latin American country to the Artemisa Agreements, which seek to establish an area of international collaboration in the space framework. With the accession of Argentina, there are already 28 countries attached to the agreements.

Ukraine changes strategy and regains ground as Putin comes under pressure from his African partners

After several months in which the Ukrainian authorities have admitted that their counteroffensive was going slower than initially planned, Zelensky's troops are celebrating an eventual change in their strategy that began at the end of this week.. “Glory to Ukraine”, the Ukrainian president wrote on his Twitter account after the “liberation of Staromaiorske” (Donetsk municipality), in the southeast of the country. These advances have come as the African Union has called on Russian President Vladimir Putin for a ceasefire.

In this way, Ukraine recovers a municipality that allows to improve the tactical position of the troops, as explained by the retired Ukrainian colonel Serguí Grabski. These advances allow them to approach the second line of Russian defense in the southeast, which is difficult to access due to the land fortifications that protect it.

Despite the euphoria that this small progress could bring, Grabski has pointed out that “it is too early to celebrate it as a great success of the Ukrainian army.”. However, it “clearly shows that Ukrainian forces can advance in harsh conditions,” he added.

Despite Ukrainian progress, the Russian side has not spoken out. They have only affirmed that the following points of the Zelensky counteroffensive will take place in Bakhmut and Zaporizhia, as confirmed by the spokesman for the Ministry of Defense, Igor Konashenkov.

Putin, pressured from Africa

In the midst of the advances of the Ukrainian troops, a new day of the summit between Russia and Africa held in Saint Petersburg took place this Friday. The longer it lasts, the more unpredictable it becomes. Putin has shown that he is willing to talk,” said the president of Comoros, Azali Assoumani, acting president of the African Union.. For his part, Putin did not close the door on this option either: “It is an acute issue and we are not avoiding its consideration.”

However, the Russian leader also urged African countries to talk with Ukraine, which, in his view, is closed to dialogue as long as the onslaught on the battlefield continues.. “It is necessary to talk to the other side as well, although we are grateful to our African friends for their attention to the issue.”

grain agreement

Other issues that have been put on the table have been the Black Sea grain agreement, of which Russia has recently ceased to be a part. In this regard, Putin has stressed that he “promised” to help Burkina Faso, Somalia, Mali, Zimbabwe, Eritrea and the Central African Republic with shipments of free grain.

The president of Egypt, Abdelfatah al Sisi, has urged “urgently” to find a solution to the problem of food supply for the “most needy” countries. Given this, António Guterres, Secretary General of the UN, has assured that this measure will only cause a notable increase in prices.

Finally, Russia concluded that it will continue to supply grain to Africa free of charge through bilateral contracts after almost doubling these exports in the first quarter of the year.

"A long shadow": the cover that 'The Guardian' dedicates to Vox leaves no one indifferent

The British newspaper The Guardian has published as the cover of its weekly edition an image with the flag of Spain under the shadow of an eagle, with the headline 'A long shadow', to refer to the slowdown that the general elections of the July 23th.

The Guardian wonders if “Vox's far-right bubble has burst” and states that before the elections it seemed that Vox's arrival in government was an “inevitable conclusion” and that the elections have left Spain with a divided Congress and a principle of blocking.

In that same edition, they also analyze the shadow of Francoism that still hangs over the country, as they wanted to caricature on the cover.

The designer of the cover, Federico Yankelevich, has explained what he wanted to represent on it: “The values of the old Catholic national morality loom large over Spanish democracy”, something that “summarizes the anguish felt by many in the country”.

The day after the elections, the British newspaper echoed the results of the elections in Spain and published: “The Conservatives do not achieve the expected majority”, to which it added, “the Popular Party and the Socialists of Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez declare victory with weeks of negotiations ahead.”

Only three banks examined by the Banking Authority would not meet the minimum capital requirements in an adverse scenario

The European Banking Authority (EBA) has indicated that only three entities, none Spanish, among the 70 European banks that it has examined, would fail to meet the minimum solvency requirements under the adverse scenario proposed in the tests and would be forced to raise capital.

“Under the adverse scenario, all banks except three meet the TSCR (total PRES capital requirement),” the authority says, without identifying these three entities.

However, the EBA points out that, of the three banks, two have a lower TSCR deficit, while the entity with a higher deficit complies with the TSCR under the adverse scenario when IFRS 17 is applied, that is, the accounting standard for insurance activities that entered into force on January 1, 2023.

Likewise, the EBA points out that, in terms of the leverage ratio requirements, four banks do not comply with the TSLRR (the total leverage ratio of the PRES) in the adverse scenario”, although it points out that for three of them the difference is small. , while meeting the risk-based TSCR.

On the other hand, the EBA analysis warns that a total of 37 banks examined would run the risk of seeing dividend distributions limited by failing to meet the MDA (maximum distributable amount) requirement in 2025.

This means that when the transitory CET1 ratio falls below the OCR requirement, it would be in breach of the MDA and may lead to asking banks to reduce their distributions.

What does the ECB conclude?

Regarding the examination to which the European Central Bank (ECB) has submitted 98 entities, including 57 examined by the EBA and 41 smaller ones, all banks retain enough capital under the base scenario to cover their capital requirements, while , under the adverse scenario, 53 banks would be subject to restrictions on the payment of dividends in at least one year of the projection horizon (51 banks in the last year), since they would breach the risk-based MDA (maximum distributable amount) threshold.

In this sense, the central bank points out that this has a positive effect on the capital ratios of the entities, since the reduced distributions boost the available capital base, which leads to less depletion during the stress test horizon. in general.

Other than that, only nine banks, none of them Spanish, would have difficulty meeting their total SREP capital requirements and/or leverage ratio requirements in the adverse scenario, including the three entities noted in the test led by the EBA.

“An additional 8.1 billion euros would be needed, together for the affected banks, to restore capital levels in line with the respective capital requirements in the specific scenario considered,” the ECB explains.

However, the institution underlines that, given the nature of the stress test, which is not a “pass or fail” exercise, the identified capital shortfalls will not, however, lead to immediate recapitalization actions and instead , the results at the bank level will inform the supervisory evaluation and review process (SREP) for each institution.

The ECB's additional stress test raises Ibercaja, which would be the most solvent in an adverse economic scenario

The European Central Bank (ECB) has carried out an additional stress test on a series of entities that are not under the supervision of the European Banking Authority (EBA), which in the case of Spain only covers to two entities: Ibercaja and Banco de Crédito Social Cooperativo, the parent entity of the Cajamar group.

Ibercaja has been the best positioned entity in these stress tests. As indicated by the ECB, its impact by 2025 on its CET1 capital ratio would be less than 300 basis points (the ECB only reports ranges, not exact data as the EBA does).. In a statement, Ibercaja has specified that the impact would be 211 basis points.

This means that the capital ratio would be in a range of between 8% and 11% by 2025 in the event that an adverse scenario materializes, such as the one that the ECB and the EBA have submitted to European financial institutions. .

The impact in Cajamar is slightly higher. The bank would register a decrease in its CET1 capital ratio of between 300 and 599 basis points. In this way, solvency would reach the same range as Ibercaja, between 8% and 11%.

The ECB has noted in its review that the smaller banks in the sample experienced higher capital depletion than the larger banks supervised by the ECB, with consumption of 6.6 percentage points, compared with 4.6 percentage points, as a consequence of its lower capacity to generate income and higher credit losses in the projection horizon.

However, the ECB highlights that the CET1 ratio was still higher than its larger counterparts, with a result of 13.7% at the end of the stress test horizon, compared to 10.1% for the largest banks. , since its initial position was also higher, with a starting ratio of 20.2% compared to 14.7% for the largest entities.

Spanish banking, among the strongest: it is the one that would best withstand a hypothetical scenario of economic stress

Spanish banks, despite currently having the lowest capital levels in the European Union (EU), are at the same time the ones that best withstand a hypothetical stress scenario in which the economy would enter a deep recession and the interest rates would skyrocket.

This is the main conclusion of the stress tests carried out by the European Banking Authority (EBA) published this Friday at the close of the market, read in Spanish.

In this exercise, the European banking sector started with an average capital of the highest quality (CET1 in the jargon) of 15% at the end of 2022, which would drop to 10.4% at the end of 2025 in a stressed scenario, which equivalent to losses of 496,000 million.

Below this average, and with a ratio of less than 10% in 2025 in the most adverse scenario of the test, are the financial systems of large nations such as France and Germany, as well as the Netherlands and Spain.

However, it is striking that of the entire sample, Spanish banks are among those that destroy less capital. Taking into account that its initial ratio did not reach 13% in 2022, as it was 12.58%, the loss of less than 2.6% means that it would be the one that would best withstand a deep recession.

Spanish banking

Bankinter, Santander and Kutxabank have positioned themselves as the most resilient Spanish entities in the face of the adverse scenario to which the European Banking Authority (EBA) has subjected them in the stress tests that it has made public this Friday.

Specifically, Bankinter started in December 2022 with a CET1 capital ratio in its fully loaded variant of 11.86%. By applying the adverse scenario posed by the EBA in its test, the capital ratio drops to 10.28% by 2025, so the impact is 158 basis points.

In second position was Banco Santander, which reflects an impact on its solvency of 171 basis points, going from 12.04% of CET1 in December 2022 to 10.33% in 2025. The podium is closed by Kutxabank, with a negative impact of 195 basis points, which is the equivalent of registering a fully loaded CET1 capital ratio of 15.26% in 2025, from 17.21% at the start of the test.

These three entities are the only ones that have achieved a better result than the whole of Spain. According to the EBA, the impact for all Spanish entities is 242 basis points, going from a CET1 capital ratio of 12.41% in December 2022 to one of 9.99% at the end of the test.

In any case, the data for Spain are better than the average observed by all the banks analyzed by the EBA, which suffer an impact in the adverse scenario of 479 basis points, going from 15.18% of CET1 capital to 10.39 % in 2025.

Returning to the Spanish entities, behind the first three is Abanca as the fourth with the best result, with an impact of 275 basis points, going from a CET1 ratio of 11.95% to 9.20%. In fifth place is BBVA, which went from 12.61% to 9.66% (295 basis points less), while Caixa reached sixth place, with 313 basis points (from 12.48% of CET1 to 9.35%).

The last two positions of the Spanish banks that the EBA has examined correspond to Unicaja, which faces an adverse impact in the stressed scenario of 326 basis points, going from a starting CET1 capital ratio of 12.98% that drops to 9, 72%, and Banco Sabadell, with a drop of 374 basis points in its solvency, as the CET1 capital ratio dropped from 12.55% to 8.81%.

How much cash can you take when traveling abroad to avoid a fine?

Summer vacations are here for millions of tourists in our country, and many of them choose to travel abroad on these dates. Although within the European Union we have the euro, and in all countries there are facilities to change the currency in case of traveling outside the community space, there are those who prefer to prevent and carry cash, whether euros or another currency, to travel.

Although it is the era of contactless cards and mobile phones, there are those who, for security or convenience reasons, prefer to carry cash, it must be taken into account that there is a maximum amount that the authorities allow to carry cash from one country to another. another, so it is necessary to know these limits so as not to get a scare when crossing the border.

How much can be carried maximum in cash?

Regulation (EU) 2018/1672 of the European Union is clear in this regard, and sets the standard for the entry or exit of cash from the European community space. The objective of this regulation is to fight against money laundering and illegal activities, and establishes that, at most, travelers can take up to 10,000 euros in cash without presenting the corresponding documentation at customs.

In the event of carrying a greater sum of cash, it must be declared to the authorities of the EU member state from which you are leaving or entering, as published by BBVA. In addition, said amount cannot be carried in a signed check either, since these are considered cash.

Fines of up to half of the money transported

In case of traveling with more than 10,000 euros in cash, it has legal consequences: firstly, the money will be withheld until its origin is determined. In addition, whoever takes it will be fined with penalties ranging from 600 euros to half the amount found in the most serious cases (especially if it is detected that there was a clear intention to hide the money).

In these cases it is always advisable to consult the regulations of the countries when it comes to restricting the entry of amounts in cash before traveling to the country.

Police kill a man who took a woman hostage in a Miami store

The Miami Beach Police shot dead a man who, at knifepoint, was holding a woman inside a Victoria's Secret store, on the tourist street of Lincoln Road, local media reported this Friday.

The event occurred on Thursday afternoon, when the agents were alerted to an incident inside this premises located in one of the main commercial arteries of the South Beach neighborhood, according to the police of this city in South Florida (USA).

Upon arrival at the store, police found a man holding a knife to a woman's throat and ordered her to drop the weapon, the police agency reported on Twitter.

In view of his refusal, an officer shot him in the head.

The man, whose identity has not been released, was later taken in critical condition to a local hospital where he died from the gunshot around midnight.

Witnesses told the local channel WPLG that the man was holding two women hostage, apparently a mother and her daughter, and had been discovered stealing from the well-known women's underwear store.

“He saved the life of the young. It was heroic,” Robert Hernandez, president of the Miami Beach Fraternal Order of Police, told the Miami Herald about the officer who shot the suspect and who, he added, “had to make a split-second decision.”