All posts by Luis Moreno

Moreno Luis - is a business and economics reporter based in Barcelona. Prior to joining the BNE24 he was economics editor of the BBC Spaine and worked as an economics and political reporter for Murcia Tuday.

The OECD raises its growth forecast for Spain in 2024 by one tenth to 1.5% and points out that prices will grow by 3.3%

This Monday the OECD has improved its economic forecasts for Spain in 2024. The update suggests that the GDP will advance somewhat more than initially expected and, on the contrary, the rise in prices will be more contained. Specifically, the international organization predicts economic growth of 1.5% for this year, which represents the greatest advance among those forecast for the four large European economies, although it will also foreseeably be where prices rise the most.

The think tank of developed economies has raised its growth forecast for Spain by one tenth, compared to the 1.4% estimated in November. Despite the upward revision, the OECD confirms that 2024 will be a year of economic slowdown, compared to the 2.5% increase recorded in 2023. “Recent indicators point to a certain moderation in growth, due to the effects of the tightening of financial conditions that persist in the credit and real estate markets, and to global trade that remains moderate,” the report explains as a general trend worldwide. Instead, Spanish GDP is expected to rebound in 2025 with 2% growth, an estimate that remains intact with respect to previous forecasts.

The projected figures for Spain are significantly above the estimates predicted for the other three large European economies, as well as for the eurozone as a whole.. In fact, the Iberian country is the only one for which the OECD has revised its forecasts upwards.. In the case of Germany and France, it has lowered them by three and two tenths respectively to 0.3% and 0.6% in 2024, while it predicts advances of 1.1% and 1.2% in 2025.. For its part, for Italy it maintains the growth forecast of 0.7% for this year and 1.2% for next year.

The Spanish economy already showed its resistance last year, with an acceleration of 0.6% in the fourth quarter that contrasted with the general stagnation of the large European economies. In fact, the push from Spain and the southern countries allowed the eurozone to avoid recession in the final stretch of the year.. After growing just 0.5% in 2023, the OECD has cut its forecasts for 2024 and 2025 for all the partner countries of the single currency to 0.6% and 1.3% respectively.

The international organization points out that the economic slowdown of most European countries in 2023 has been offset globally by the strong growth of the United States (2.5%) and emerging economies such as China, India, Indonesia or the Turkey, where annual advances of over 4% have been recorded. Overall, world GDP grew by 3.1% in 2023. The OECD expects the advance to moderate to 2.9% in 2024 and 3% in 2025.

Inflation moderates

Regarding prices, the international organization has improved its forecasts for Spain in 2024, although it points out that they will still remain above the 2% objective to which the European Central Bank (ECB) intends to return them.. Specifically, the OECD has revised the estimated inflation for this year down four tenths to 3.3% and predicts that the moderation in prices will continue in 2025 with an increase of 2.5%, two tenths above its previous forecast.

Along the same lines, AIReF also cut its estimate of price growth for 2024 to 3.3% at the end of January.. The institution based its review on the moderation of inflation observed in the last months of 2023 and on the partial extension of the anti-crisis measures imposed by the Government to cushion the price crisis. A few weeks ago, Congress validated the extension of the VAT reduction on basic foodstuffs and electricity – raised from 5% to 10% -, among other measures that will have a positive impact on prices, according to forecasts.

Even so, the CPI variation rate forecast for Spain in 2024 and 2025 is the highest among those forecast for the large European economies.. The international organization forecasts inflation of 2.7% and 2.6% in France and Germany respectively this year, which is expected to moderate in 2025 to 2.1% and 2%.. On the other hand, in Italy, the evolution of prices is expected to be the opposite, with a slowdown in the rate of increase to 1.8% in 2024 and a rebound to 2.2% in 2025.

In the eurozone as a whole, the OECD forecasts that inflation will moderate to 2.6% in 2024 and will remain on that path to drop to 2.2% in 2025, thus approaching the 2% target. The ECB closely monitors price behavior to set the course of monetary policy in the eurozone. At its January meeting, the organization kept interest rates unchanged at 4.5% for the third consecutive time. The president of the institution, Christine Lagarde, pointed out that it is still premature to discuss a rate cut, although she acknowledged a few weeks ago that it is “likely” that the first relief will arrive in the summer.

“Monetary policy must remain prudent to ensure the lasting containment of underlying inflationary pressures,” asks the OECD in its report. “There is room to lower official interest rates as inflation declines, but monetary policy should remain restrictive in most major economies for some time,” he adds, while warning of the effects of high rates. interest rates on the economy. “Growth could also be weaker than expected if the lingering effects of previous interest rate hikes were stronger than expected,” it warns.

The “risk” of the Red Sea

The Paris-based organization also warns that the conflicts in the Middle East and, in particular, the attacks on ships in the Red Sea “have sharply increased transportation costs and have lengthened delivery times for goods, disrupting schedules. of production and increasing pressures on prices”. Specifically, it points out that they would represent “a significant short-term risk for activity and inflation” if they have repercussions on the energy markets. Therefore, he points out that “it is too early to ensure that the underlying pressures on prices are fully contained.”

In the case of Spain, the OECD forecasts underlying inflation of 2.7% in 2024 from the 4.1% recorded in 2023, four tenths less than previously expected. In 2025, the deceleration of this indicator would continue, which excludes the price of energy and unprocessed food from the calculation due to their high volatility, reaching a rate of 2.1%, one tenth below the previous projection. The underlying rate of the eurozone would fall in 2024 to 2.6% and in 2025 to 2.2%.

Russia claims to have thwarted an attempted attack against a senior Crimean official orchestrated from Ukraine

In a press release on Monday, the Federal Security Service of Russia (FSB) reported its successful intervention in a thwarted attack against a prominent leader in Crimea. The FSB claims that the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) orchestrated the attempted attack, which it categorizes as an “act of terrorism” without disclosing the identity of the targeted official.

The FSB stated that it had apprehended a group of Russians who were allegedly following instructions from the SBU in Simferopol. The group was allegedly planning to detonate an anti-tank mine under the intended victim’s car, according to information gathered by the TASS agency.

The arrests include individuals named VA. Bodnar, OV. Shevchenko, and Ananieva VV, who have reportedly confessed their intentions to carry out the attack in Crimea. Crimea, located in southern Ukraine but annexed by Russia in 2014, has been a source of ongoing tensions.

The Russian authorities have initiated an investigation into the alleged attempt to commit a terrorist act, as well as the charges of acquiring, transporting, selling, and storing explosives, all of which are serious offenses under the country’s Penal Code.

Adolescents bullied by their peers are at greater risk of psychotic episodes

A team of researchers from the University of Tokyo in Japan has made an interesting discovery regarding the effects of bullying on adolescents. They found that adolescents who are bullied by their peers are at a higher risk of experiencing the early stages of psychotic episodes. Additionally, these individuals have lower levels of a key neurotransmitter in a region of the brain that regulates emotions.

This finding suggests that targeting this neurotransmitter could be a potential strategy for pharmaceutical interventions aimed at reducing the risk of psychotic disorders. Psychosis is a mental state characterized by a loss of contact with reality, incoherent speech and behavior, hallucinations, and delusions commonly seen in psychiatric disorders like schizophrenia.

Recent studies have explored the neurological and psychiatric characteristics of certain disorders and found that individuals experiencing their first episode of psychosis or those with treatable schizophrenia have lower-than-normal levels of a neurotransmitter called glutamate in the anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) of the brain. The ACC plays a critical role in emotion regulation, decision making, and cognitive control. Glutamate, the most abundant neurotransmitter in the brain, is involved in various functions such as learning, memory, and mood regulation.

Alterations in glutamate levels have been linked to several psychiatric disorders, including schizophrenia, depression, and anxiety. Therefore, measuring glutamate levels can provide valuable insights into the underlying mechanisms of these disorders and guide treatment approaches.

Previously, the relationship between ACC levels and bullying experiences in adolescents at high risk for psychosis was unclear. Thus, researchers from the University of Tokyo used magnetic resonance imaging to study the structure and function of the brain and measure glutamate levels in Japanese adolescents.

By comparing glutamate levels with experiences of bullying, the researchers found that bullying was associated with higher levels of subclinical psychotic experiences in early adolescence. Subclinical psychotic experiences consist of symptoms that approach psychosis but do not meet all the criteria for a clinical diagnosis of a psychotic disorder like schizophrenia. These symptoms include hallucinations, paranoia, and radical alterations in thinking that significantly impact functioning.

Understanding these subclinical psychotic experiences is crucial for identifying individuals who may be at a higher risk of developing a clinical psychotic illness later on. Lead author Naohiro Okada emphasizes the importance of anti-bullying programs in schools that promote positive social interactions, reduce aggressive behaviors, and create a safe and supportive environment for all students. Providing support and resources, such as counseling services and peer support groups, to adolescents who have experienced bullying victimization is also recommended.

While the researchers have identified a potential target for pharmacological interventions, Okada suggests that non-pharmacological approaches like cognitive-behavioral therapy or mindfulness-based interventions can also address the neurotransmitter imbalance.

Pope Francis and Milei will meet for the first time next Monday

In a surprising turn of events, the Pope is set to meet with the president of Argentina, Javier Milei, at the Vatican next Monday, February 12. This meeting marks the first time the two leaders will come face-to-face and is part of Milei’s international tour, which includes visits to Israel and Italy.

The meeting will take place in the private library of the Apostolic Palace of the Vatican at 9 in the morning. Milei will arrive by car to the Vatican Courtyard of San Damaso, where he will then proceed to the private library for the meeting.

It is worth noting that Pope Francis, formerly known as Jorge Mario Bergoglio, has not visited his native country, Argentina, since becoming Pope in 2013. This meeting presents an opportunity for Milei to extend an official invitation for the Pope to visit Argentina, an invitation that he already sent by letter.

Prior to the meeting with the Pope, Milei is scheduled to attend the canonization of Mama Antula, the first Argentine saint, in St. Peter’s Basilica on February 11. This event holds significance for Argentina and further adds to the significance of Milei’s visit.

Milei’s trip to Israel

Before his meeting with the Pope, Milei embarked on an official state visit to Israel. During his visit, he will meet with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and other Israeli authorities. Additionally, Milei will take advantage of the opportunity to stopover in Italy.

The president is accompanied by a delegation, including his sister and general secretary of the Presidency, Karina Milei; the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Diana Mondino; and the designated ambassador to Israel, Axel Wahnish.

During the stopover in Rome, Milei will be joined by the Minister of the Interior, Guillermo Francos; the Minister of Human Capital, Sandra Pettovello; and the Secretary of Worship, Francisco Sánchez, as confirmed by the Argentine Presidency.

Zelensky prepares a reshuffle of the high command of the Ukrainian Army after the stagnation of his counteroffensive

The foundations of the Ukrainian military high command are shaking, and within that internal earthquake in which the Army finds itself there is one who stands out above the rest: the head of the Armed Forces, Valeri Zaluzhni. The rumors that for weeks have put Zaluzhni in the spotlight have been confirmed this Monday by the Ukrainian president himself, Volodymyr Zelensky, who has acknowledged that he is thinking of introducing significant changes in the country's military and political leadership, which includes replace Zaluzhni, to achieve a “new beginning” in the framework of the war against Russia.

“Restart, a new beginning is necessary. I have something serious in mind, which does not concern a single person but the leadership of the country,” he said before admitting that “it is true” that he has thought about the need to replace Zaluzhni and “the entire administrative apparatus” to “achieve the victory”. In this sense, he has pointed out that there is a “stagnation” on the front and has pointed out that this is due to the “delay in the shipment of weapons” by Western countries.. “These types of problems lead to mistakes on the battlefield,” he stated in an interview on Italian public television.

“We fight against terrorists who have one of the largest armies in the world, modern technical means are needed,” he said.. Currently 36% of Ukrainian territory is under Russian occupation, although Zelensky has assured that “the Russian Army is unable to advance significantly.”. “We have detained them,” he defended, while explaining that after these months of war, Ukraine “is a different country, closer to Europe, with a stronger Army and equipped with Western means.”

According to Army and Presidential sources cited by the Ukrainian newspaper Ukrainska Pravda, Zelensky is also considering dismissing the chief of the General Staff, Lieutenant General Sergei Shaptala.. “We will have a very bad time, but it is certain that we will never feel ashamed. “I am happy that in this life and in this war you, a person for whom Ukraine is above all, have been by my side,” Zaluzhni wrote to Shaptala on Facebook on the occasion of his birthday on Monday.

Zaluzhni and his public disagreements with Zelensky

Rumors about Zaluzhni's dismissal with Zelensky began last November, when he published an article in which he considered the summer counteroffensive to be amortized and recognized that the war had entered a positional phase that could favor Russia.

The president did not support Zaluzhni's theses and indirectly described them as defeatist. Shortly after, another incident occurred related to the mobilization of new soldiers. The head of the Army insisted from the beginning of the war on the importance of achieving general mobilization and reinforcing the border areas with Russia, while the Ukrainian president has been cautious due to the fear that these types of measures will generate panic among the Ukrainian population.

According to polls published at the end of last year, the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces had the trust of 88% of Ukrainians, while Zelensky's popularity rate was then 62%. The mayor of kyiv, Vitali Klitschkó (who has also had public disagreements with the Ukrainian president), supported Zaluzhni this Monday by stating on his Telegram channel that thanks to him Ukrainians believed in their Armed Forces.

Zelensky visits the front

While this internal struggle was taking place, the Ukrainian president traveled to the battle front this Sunday, where he met with members of the Air Force in the Dnipropetrovsk region.. During his visit he posted images from Robotyne, one of the towns that the Ukrainian Army managed to recover during its counteroffensive last summer.

At the same time, in the east of the country, on the Donetsk front, Russian forces have attempted to end their encirclement of the Ukrainian municipality of Avdivka. Ukrainian troops repelled up to 44 Russian attacks in that area during the past day, according to the report issued this Monday by the General Staff.

In their daily bulletin on the course of the war, the Center for Defense Strategies in kyiv reported a Russian advance of 1.5 kilometers in the sand quarry area located in the north of Avdivka. Near Optine, south of Avdivka and about two kilometers north of the occupied Donetsk airport, Russian forces would have advanced one kilometer. Ukrainian military sources have explained in recent weeks that the lack of ammunition to repel Russian attacks gives the enemy an advantage along the entire front.

Although in the first stages of the counteroffensive Ukraine managed to advance a few kilometers along the entire border, this progress has been slowed for months.. The positions of both countries are stagnant and Zelensky continues trying to get the essential aid package for Ukraine from the United States to receive the approval of the Senate, since the Republicans have knocked it down on several occasions.. This same Monday, the Republicans presented a new proposal, although everything indicates that it will have the same future as the previous ones.

Death toll from Chilean forest fires rises to 122

The Chilean authorities have revised upwards the number of casualties from the fires in the Valparaíso region to 122, with close to 40,000 people affected by the destruction of their homes. The Legal Medical Service of Chile announced that the delivery of bodies to the victims’ families will begin soon, as DNA samples are being collected for identification purposes. However, only 32 bodies have been identified thus far.

Manuel Monsalve, Undersecretary of the Interior of the Chilean Government, referred to the fires as a national tragedy and emphasized that fire control conditions have improved significantly. Although there is no imminent risk to people’s lives, the fires remain active and efforts to control them continue.

165 intentional fires

The authorities believe that the fires were intentional, with 165 fires reported since last Friday. While 40 are still being fought, 112 are under control and four have been extinguished. The Chilean authorities have declared their intention to prosecute those responsible for the fires, citing indications of planning, orchestration, and organized behavior. The general director of Carabineros, Ricardo Yáñez, emphasized the duty to apprehend and hand over the culprits to the Public Ministry.

Governor Rodrigo Mundaca condemned the actions of the perpetrators, describing them as “miserable criminals” who have caused immense damage. He vowed to hold them accountable and expressed grief over the loss of lives and destruction caused by the fires, including the loss of 10,000 hectares and the destruction of the Botanical Garden.

Parisians vote in favor of toughening driving conditions for heavier vehicles

In a referendum called by the City Council, Parisians voted in favor of stricter regulations on heavier vehicles, including a proposal to triple the price of parking for these vehicles. However, citizen participation in the voting process was low, with less than 6% of the 1.3 million eligible voters actually casting their votes.

The measure specifically targets thermal or hybrid vehicles weighing over 1.6 tons and electric vehicles weighing over 2 tons. Once implemented, the parking fees for these vehicles will increase to 18 euros per hour in central districts and 12 euros per hour in peripheral districts, resulting in an estimated additional revenue of 35 million euros for the city.

This victory for Paris Mayor Anne Hidalgo, a socialist, aligns with her previous efforts to reduce the presence of vehicles in the city. Hidalgo had campaigned against SUVs, which she associated with increased pollution and reduced space in urban areas. This measure will now be presented to the municipal plenary session for endorsement before being implemented.

Despite Hidalgo’s success, the low participation in the referendum has raised some criticism, with opponents arguing that the measure is more about political populism than genuine environmental concern. However, the executive director of the International Energy Agency, Fatih Birol, praised Paris’s initiative and predicted that it would influence other cities worldwide to address similar issues.

Israel arrives at Hamas headquarters in Khan Younis as truce deal is delayed

Back in 2008, the world was left in shock by the horrifying story of Elisabeth Fritzl, a woman who had spent an unimaginable 24 years imprisoned in her parents’ basement. During this nightmare, her own father, Josef Fritzl, subjected her to continuous sexual abuse, resulting in seven pregnancies.

Now, almost 16 years later, Elisabeth Fritzl, now 56 years old, has managed to rebuild her life under a new identity. The Daily Mail has recently shed some light on this brave woman’s current existence.

Following the trial that resulted in her father being sentenced to life imprisonment, Elisabeth, along with her children, was granted new identities. She eventually married her former bodyguard, who is 23 years her junior and had protected her during the aftermath of the crimes.

Although Austrian law prohibits the disclosure of her new identity, the British tabloid has revealed that Elisabeth now resides in a spacious two-story house in a small village, approximately 30 minutes away from Amstetten. Interestingly, her new home is also situated near the Mauthausen Nazi concentration camp.

The tabloid further reports that the exterior of Elisabeth’s house is equipped with security cameras and features a double garage and a swimming pool. Notably, her daughter Kerstin lives right across the street.

Local residents have chosen to remain tight-lipped about the family’s past, but they acknowledge Elisabeth’s occasional visits to the village restaurant. As one neighbor confided to the Daily Mail, “Everyone knows the backstory, but no one talks about the past – they have a new life and people respect it.”

Josef Fritzl, now 88 years old, will spend the remainder of his life in a conventional prison after previously being housed in a psychiatric hospital. Over the course of those horrifying 24 years, he sexually assaulted his daughter approximately 3,000 times within the basement, resulting in seven children. Kerstin, born in 1988, as well as Stefan (1990) and Felix (2002), grew up below ground with their mother while Lisa (1992), Monica (1994), and Alexander (1996) lived upstairs along with Fritzl’s wife, Rosemarie. Tragically, another child named Michael died shortly after birth.

This is now the life of the daughter of Joseph Fritzl, the 'monster of Amstetten': she lives half an hour from where she was imprisoned for 24 years

Back in 2008, the world was left in shock by the horrifying story of Elisabeth Fritzl, a woman who had spent an unimaginable 24 years imprisoned in her parents’ basement. During this nightmare, her own father, Josef Fritzl, subjected her to continuous sexual abuse, resulting in seven pregnancies.

Now, almost 16 years later, Elisabeth Fritzl, now 56 years old, has managed to rebuild her life under a new identity. The Daily Mail has recently shed some light on this brave woman’s current existence.

Following the trial that resulted in her father being sentenced to life imprisonment, Elisabeth, along with her children, was granted new identities. She eventually married her former bodyguard, who is 23 years her junior and had protected her during the aftermath of the crimes.

Although Austrian law prohibits the disclosure of her new identity, the British tabloid has revealed that Elisabeth now resides in a spacious two-story house in a small village, approximately 30 minutes away from Amstetten. Interestingly, her new home is also situated near the Mauthausen Nazi concentration camp.

The tabloid further reports that the exterior of Elisabeth’s house is equipped with security cameras and features a double garage and a swimming pool. Notably, her daughter Kerstin lives right across the street.

Local residents have chosen to remain tight-lipped about the family’s past, but they acknowledge Elisabeth’s occasional visits to the village restaurant. As one neighbor confided to the Daily Mail, “Everyone knows the backstory, but no one talks about the past – they have a new life and people respect it.”

Josef Fritzl, now 88 years old, will spend the remainder of his life in a conventional prison after previously being housed in a psychiatric hospital. Over the course of those horrifying 24 years, he sexually assaulted his daughter approximately 3,000 times within the basement, resulting in seven children. Kerstin, born in 1988, as well as Stefan (1990) and Felix (2002), grew up below ground with their mother while Lisa (1992), Monica (1994), and Alexander (1996) lived upstairs along with Fritzl’s wife, Rosemarie. Tragically, another child named Michael died shortly after birth.

Clashes with police at a migrant center in Rome after a suicide

A group of migrants from the Permanence and Repatriation Center (CPR) in Ponte Galeria, in Rome, clashed with the Police on Sunday. The confrontation was sparked after a 22-year-old Guinean man was found dead, having hung himself from the bars of his room. In response, some migrants at the center broke the iron gates and pelted the police with stones. The police retaliated with tear gas and water cannons. There were attempts to set fire to a police car, but the flames were swiftly extinguished. No injuries were reported, and the situation eventually calmed down.

According to activist groups, the young Guinean man had recently come from another migrant center in Trapani, Sicily, where similar altercations had occurred. It was revealed that he had been seen crying in despair multiple times, expressing a desire to return to his country due to his responsibility as an older brother.

The incident has brought attention to the conditions within the Ponte Galeria CPR. Riccardo Magi, a deputy and secretary of the + Europe party, visited the center and noted the young man’s visible distress. Laria Cucchi, a senator of the Greens and Left party, had previously filed a complaint with the Rome prosecutor’s office after visiting the center undercover and witnessing the unfavorable living conditions endured by the migrants.

CPRs are facilities where undocumented migrants are held while awaiting repatriation to their home countries. They can be detained for a maximum of 18 months under the latest regulations implemented by the right-wing government of Giorgia Meloni.