Neither the drop in sales nor the decline in mortgage signing have managed to force a change in trend in housing prices.. According to data published this Tuesday by the National Institute of Statistics (INE), apartments increased their price between July and September by increasing their price by 4.5% compared to the same period in 2022, an increase that was especially profound in the new home. However, while access to a property is getting tougher for those thinking about buying, foreclosures on homes have been reduced by 21.6% in the last year, in which the suspension of evictions imposed by the Government.

After half a year with increases below 4%, the House Price Index (IPV) rose again in the third quarter, growing 4.5% compared to the level of a year before. This is the largest acceleration in the cost of homes since the end of 2022 – when real estate became more expensive by 5.5% – and the second consecutive after the increase in the IPV in the previous quarter, which ended a year of moderation in prices. Even so, the rate of increase in prices is far from that recorded last year at the same time, when housing prices rose by 7.6% during the summer months and had previously grown by even 8.5% in the first few months. three months of the year.

“The great latent demand that exists in the sector currently continues to push prices up,” assesses the director of Fotocasa Studies, María Matos, who recalls that owners with properties for sale are reluctant to lower prices.. “Probably an important part of this remaining interest is because there are many citizens waiting for a large price drop to occur, a situation that is difficult to occur,” he predicts, ruling out for the moment “significant price drops.”

The rise in property prices was especially contributed by the increase in the cost of newly built housing, which grew by 11% between July and September compared to the same period in 2022 – its highest interannual rate in the last 16 years -, compared to an increase 3.2% in second-hand ones. In this way, the cost of used apartments has maintained a constant rate of increase of around 3% since the beginning of the year.. On the other hand, the price of brand new properties has undertaken a dizzying rise in the last six months, since the increase in prices in the third quarter is added to an increase of 7.7% between April and June. Compared to the second quarter, the cost of new housing grew by 4.1% only in the summer months and that of second-hand housing, by 2.2%.

“We do not believe that new construction is going to suffer moderation and even if demand continues to be so strong, in the coming months we will see how the price continues to increase,” predicts Matos, who attributes the escalation in the cost of these homes to inflation, which affects the price of materials, production and logistics, and the low productivity of new construction. “The difficulties of developers and builders in purchasing final land, the lack of qualified labor in the sector and the increase in the price of materials derived from the rise in energy prices and the war in Ukraine is causing the stock to be low. minimums,” he explains.

The increase in housing prices in the third quarter was widespread throughout the national territory, although with significant differences. The community that registered the greatest increase was Navarra, where the cost of apartments grew by 7.6% compared to 2022. They were followed by the Canary Islands, Cantabria and Andalusia, with annual increases of 6.6%, 5.9% and 5.8% respectively, similar to those of Ceuta and Melilla.. On the other hand, the most moderate increases occurred in Castilla-La Mancha and Extremadura, where prices barely rose by 1% and 1.1% respectively, compared to the third quarter of 2022.

The rise in housing prices is taking its toll on the real estate market, which so far in 2023 has suffered a sharp decline in both sales and mortgage signing after the record figures in 2022.. According to INE data, the granting of loans for the acquisition of real estate was reduced in September – the last month for which data is available – by 29.6% compared to the previous year and the purchase and sale of apartments decreased by 23.7%. , both data accumulating eight consecutive year-on-year falls. “In the final stretch of the year it has been demonstrated that the price of housing is unrelated to the cooling of the market, with sales and mortgages very tight due to the current financial framework,” assesses Ferran Font, Director of Studies at the real estate portal piso.com.

Decrease in evictions

However, despite the fact that the increase in prices increases the difficulties in accessing home ownership, evictions of those who already have a mortgage behind them decreased by 21.6% in the third quarter compared to the same period. 2022, according to data released this Tuesday by the INE. Compared to the second quarter of the year, mortgage foreclosures fell by 37.3% in the quarterly rate at the beginning of the second half of the year.

Between July and September, a total of 2,306 foreclosures were carried out on homes, of which 1,721 were on habitual residences, the lowest figure for a third quarter since 2019 and 16.5% less than in 2022. Homes accounted for 69.7% of the mortgage foreclosures recorded in the third quarter—not all of them end in eviction.

Mortgage foreclosures have accumulated more than a year of year-on-year declines, an evolution that reflects the suspension of evictions extended until the end of the year by the Government in June to reinforce protection for the most vulnerable households. The measure gives judges the ability to stop a launch when the owners of the property do not have more than 10 homes once their socioeconomic situation has been evaluated.

56.3% of the foreclosures initiated on homes in the third quarter corresponded to mortgages established between 2004 and 2008, compared to 11.1% represented by those signed in 2005 and 15.7% represented by those signed in 2006, which represented a similar percentage to those established in 2007. Andalusia was the autonomous community that concentrated the most evictions (592), followed by the Valencian Community (448) and Catalonia (440).

The Ministry of Labor believes that the objective of raising the minimum interprofessional salary (SMI) to 60% of the average salary in Spain has already been met with the current remuneration, as stated by sources from the department headed by Yolanda Díaz this Monday in a meeting with journalists. Therefore, to maintain that 60% ratio also next year, the SMI would have to increase hand in hand with general salaries and always above the accumulated inflation in 2023 so that workers do not lose purchasing power.

This is the argument that Labor uses at the negotiation table to raise the SMI in which employers and unions sit. The department led by Díaz has already stated that the increase they feel comfortable with is around 4%, although they have not officially put any number on the table.

Those who have specified more are businessmen and unions. The former are committed to raising the SMI by 3% – with an additional 1% if inflation in December exceeds 4% – as long as the Treasury is open to updating the rates of public contracts so that companies can pass that cost on to the administration.

In the case of worker representatives, CC OO is committed to raising the SMI by 5.2%, the same percentage by which salary costs have increased, according to the INE. On the other hand, UGT has defended on several occasions that the minimum wage must reach 1,200 euros in 14 payments to comply with the rule of 60% of the average salary.. An estimate that Labor rejects, considering that the data used by the union is from tax sources and not from the INE Salary Structure Survey, which is the reference established by the commission of experts appointed by Díaz.

From Labor they point out that the committee of experts appointed by the ministry to calculate how much the SMI needs to be raised has already fulfilled its original mandate, which was to estimate how much that 60% amounted to.. Consequently, they add that a new report will not be necessary to justify the increase like the one presented at this time last year, although the advisory commission will continue to function, but focused on other aspects.

According to the calculations of the department directed by Yolanda Díaz, the 1,080 gross euros per month in 14 payments that the current SMI amounts to, already represent 60% of the average remuneration of a full-time employee in Spain.. The basis for obtaining this figure is the salary structure survey published annually by the INE.. The problem is that the latest data for that statistic is from 2021, so the figures from 2022 and 2023 can only be estimates.

To overcome this lack of information, Labor estimated that Spanish salaries grew by 3.2% in 2022, in line with the increases included in collective labor agreements last year.. With these numbers in hand, Díaz's department assumes that the average gross salary of a full-time worker in 2022 was 2,186 euros per year in 14 payments, which, after deducting contributions and personal income tax, was reduced to 1,681 euros per month.. Following this reasoning, the net SMI – which amounts to 1,008 euros in 2023, discounting 72 euros of personal income tax – is already at 60%.

Less inequality without effects on employment

Labor insists that the negative predictions that were made about the SMI when the fastest pace of increases began have not come true.. In the department led by Díaz, they reject that the SMI has affected job creation and maintain that the latest published studies estimate the possible impact at 6,000 jobs, far from the 170,000 predicted by the Bank of Spain.

In addition, they maintain that the increases approved since 2018 have contributed to reducing inequality. To the point that, while the salaries of the 10% of Spaniards who earn the least have seen their salaries grow by 30% since 2018, the 10% with the best remuneration have noticed an increase of 9.5% in that period. This has made it possible to reduce the gap between the two ends of the salary spectrum.. While in 2018 the top 10% earned 10 times more than the lowest paid 10%, that difference has been reduced to eight times.

For yet another year, global discussions on climate change at COP28 once again involve a semantic battle. If last year the discussion was about whether global warming had to be stopped at 2ºC or 1.5ºC, given that both figures appear in the historic Paris Agreement, in Dubai they are only talking about 1.5ºC, but The discrepancies have to do with the level of ambition necessary to not exceed it, specifically with regard to the use of fossil fuels. And in this tug-of-war, the Government has clearly positioned itself in favor of the more drastic position that scientists and environmentalists also defend to ensure that COP28 ends with a commitment to “eliminate them”, even if it is progressively, instead of the intention much laxity defended by the producing countries and the ubiquitous presence of companies that simply reduce them.

This debate, which is key, is settled in two very similar terms in English but with very different meanings and, according to delegations such as the Spanish one, with very different consequences, because whether it is possible to stop global warming in 1 depends precisely on it. 5ºC compared to pre-industrial levels.

Spain defends “phasing out”, that is, that COP28 ends with a commitment to “eliminate” the use of fossil fuels. At the Climate Summit two years ago, COP26 in Glasgow, this was decided for coal and Spain wants the Dubai event to also mark the way out for gas and oil.

Opposite is another concept, “phasing down”, which would be a commitment to reduce the use of fossil fuels but without advocating their elimination.. This is the position defended by the producing countries, including the host of COP28, the United Arab Emirates.. The president of the summit and Emirati Minister of Industry, Sultan al Jaber, shocked part of the audience a few days ago by ensuring that “there is no science, nor any scenario, that says that the progressive elimination of fossil fuels is the which will allow reaching 1.5°C”. A day later he had to reverse himself and stated in a meeting with journalists that the progressive exit from fossil fuels is “inevitable.”. There is also pessimism about whether they can reach ambitious commitments against climate change at a summit organized by a country with large oil reserves and with plans to take advantage of the event to close trade agreements with fifteen countries.

“Get rid of fossil fuels”

This Tuesday, the third vice president and minister for the Ecological Transition, Teresa Ribera, joined the unanimous cry with which a group of ministers from different regions responded “no!” to the question whether they would consider it a success if COP28 concluded with a commitment to reduce – “phashing down” – but not eliminate – “phasing out” – the use of fossil fuels.

“It is time to take steps forward and say that if we want to keep the 1.5ºC goal within reach we have to take a global stock and give guidance.”. What we have to do is get rid of fossil fuels and how to ensure energy efficiency and renewable energies,” said Ribera during the press conference he shared with ministers from Denmark, Colombia and Samoa to announce Spain's integration into the 'Beyond Oil and Gas Alliance' (BOGA), a union of governments that was created at COP26 in Glasgow to help other countries provide economic and labor alternatives in regions especially dependent on fuels fossils when they abandon them. This is what in Spain and the EU is called “just transition”.

just transition

This Tuesday, three new members joined it, Spain, Kenya and Samoa, bringing the total to 26 governments to promote actions such as the one announced at the Climate Summit, the delivery of one million dollars to support the efforts from Colombia and Kenya, the first two beneficiaries of a fund intended to help them manage in an orderly manner the transition from dependence on gas and oil to other renewable energies.

In line with the progress of the negotiations, Greenpeace insists that the objective should not only be to reach the maximum peak in fossil fuel consumption by 2030, but also to “begin its decline imminently” so that at the end of the decade a decrease is already noticeable. .

The number of unemployed registered in the employment offices has decreased in November by 24,573 people compared to October, thus recording the best unemployment figure for an eleventh month of the year since 2007. Social Security affiliation also remains at record levels, above 20.8 million employed people. However, the reactivation of commerce with the preparations for the Christmas campaign, preluded by Black Friday, has not been enough to avoid the destruction of employment in the penultimate month of the year, mainly due to the collapse of the hospitality industry with the arrival of the low temperatures.

According to data released this Monday by the Ministry of Labor, November closed with a total of 2,734,831 million unemployed, the lowest number at this point in the last 16 years.. You have to go back to 2007 to find a month of November in which the number of unemployed people registered in the SEPE offices fell below 2.8 million.. In the last twelve months, compared to November 2022, unemployment has been reduced by 146,549 people, which represents a drop of 5.09%.

The decrease in unemployment registered in November is lower than that recorded in 2022 and 2021, when 33,512 and 74,381 unemployed people left the employment offices respectively.. Except for that period of post-pandemic recovery, the drop in unemployment last month has been the second highest in the historical series for the month of November, only surpassed by that of 2015.. Although the greatest decrease has been concentrated in the services sector – which has lost 17,335 unemployed -, the fall has been generalized, also recording 2,654 fewer unemployed in industry, 2,175 in agriculture and 1,072 in construction.

The evolution of Social Security affiliation has not been as homogeneous as that of unemployment, although, despite having decreased in the last month, it persists at record levels. According to data published this Monday by the Ministry of Inclusion, employment has remained at an average of more than 20.8 million workers in November, which represents the highest volume of affiliates for an eleventh month of the year in the historical series.. Never before in the month of November have there been so many people working in Spain. “The affiliation data for November reflect the strength of job creation in Spain,” said the new Minister of Inclusion and Social Security, Elma Saiz. In the last twelve months, Social Security has gained a total of 522,443 employees, which reflects a year-on-year growth in membership of 2.6%.

However, compared to the employment volume in October, membership has been reduced in November by 11,583 people, a greater drop than that recorded last year at the same time, when only 155 jobs were destroyed.. For its part, in 2021 and 2020 Social Security gained 61,768 and 31,638 workers, respectively.. The ministry headed by Elma Saiz highlights that this reduction in occupancy is “much smaller” than those recorded in the eleventh month of the year before the pandemic, between 2016 and 2019, which stood at an average of 36,000 people.

The decrease in the number of workers has not been generalized in all sectors. It has been especially concentrated in the hospitality industry, where 115,539 jobs have been destroyed coinciding with the end of good weather. Although less numerous, there have also been decreases in employment in the Public Administration and in the agricultural sector – with the loss of 3,717 and 2,583 jobs respectively – as well as among the self-employed, whose volume has been reduced by 1,070 people compared to October .

These falls have been partially cushioned by job creation in other sectors, especially in education, which has gained 38,024 workers, and in commerce, where Black Friday and the warm-up for the Christmas campaign have left 23,257 more workers than in October. They are followed in job creation by sectors such as administrative activities, construction, manufacturing industry and scientific and technical activities, all of them with more than 5,000 new jobs.

The monthly decline in membership has mainly affected women, among whom 7,949 jobs were lost in November compared to October, compared to a decline of 3,634 employed workers among the male population.. Even so, the number of women affiliated with Social Security continues at historic highs, with a total of 9,828,346 employed, still below the 10,977,728 male workers. The Ministry of Inclusion has highlighted that, compared to the level before the pandemic, female membership – which represents 47.2% of the total – has grown by 8.7% so far this year, three points more than the masculine.

The drop in unemployment in November has also been more pronounced among women. Specifically, female unemployment has been reduced by 15,962 people, compared to a decrease of 8,611 unemployed among unemployed men. In total, at the end of November, there were 1,645,093 unemployed women in Spain – its lowest figure for a month of November since 2008 – and 1,089,738 men. Likewise, the decrease in unemployment has also reduced the volume of unemployed people under 25 years of age by 5,588, reaching 205,979 unemployed, the lowest figure for a month of November in the historical series.

Less temporality

Regarding hiring, 1,356,293 contracts were signed in November, 4.8% less than in the same month of 2022. Specifically, 562,466 were permanent – 8.6% less than in 2022 -, of which 233,918 were full-time, 196,274 permanent-discontinuous and 132,274 part-time. “The labor reform continues to improve the labor market in our country, offering more employment opportunities and better conditions to workers,” highlighted the head of Labor, Yolanda Díaz, on social networks.. “One more month we see that the labor reform is beneficial for our country as a whole. The data is good, but we are not satisfied,” he added.

“Thanks to the labor reform, Spain is intensely improving the quality and stability of jobs, with a strong reduction in temporary employment, especially among young people,” said the Minister of Inclusion. The percentage of affiliates with a temporary contract has remained at a historic low of 13% in November, compared to the average of 30% that was before the regulatory change. Among those under 30 years of age, temporary employment has been reduced by 32 points, to 21%.