All posts by Luis Moreno

Moreno Luis - is a business and economics reporter based in Barcelona. Prior to joining the BNE24 he was economics editor of the BBC Spaine and worked as an economics and political reporter for Murcia Tuday.
ECONOMY

Airef lowers its growth forecast for 2024 to 1.7% and advises a fiscal adjustment of 9.5 billion to comply with the EU

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Airef estimates that the Spanish economy will grow by 1.7% next year. An advance in GDP that would place Spain for the third consecutive year among the advanced economies with the best results, but which remains below the Government's predictions, which raises that figure to 2%. This was announced this Thursday by the Fiscal Authority, the independent body in charge of monitoring Spanish public finances.

Given the imminent return of European fiscal discipline in 2024, Airef urges the Executive to prepare a budget adjustment to guarantee that public debt is reduced in the coming years. Specifically, the independent fiscal watchdog proposes an annual adjustment of 0.64 points of GDP (9,500 million euros per year and 39,000 million in the entire period) between 2025 and 2028. In this way, Spain could reduce its public debt below 80% of GDP in the 1940s.

The fiscal watchdog has presented its report on the Fundamental Lines of the Budgets of Public Administrations, in which it analyzes the budget projects of all the administrations of the country. On this occasion, the document is somewhat decaffeinated as the General State Budget project has not been presented because the Government is in office.. A context of institutional uncertainty, which is also added to the economic clouds in the eurozone and the absence of a clear framework of European fiscal rules, the reform of which has not yet been fully defined.

Regarding economic growth, Airef points out that Spain has resisted better than most European countries in 2022 and 2023 as it has been less exposed to problems in global supply chains, the energy crisis and the weakening of China. For the current year, the Tax Authority expects GDP growth of 2.3%, one of the highest in the eurozone.

However, the country will find it difficult to escape the slowdown that is occurring in Europe. A weakness that is already noticeable in the second half of the year. The fiscal authority believes that in the third quarter the GDP will advance by just 0.1%, while in the fourth it will increase by 0.2%. Data that outlines a situation of stagnation, which in principle should ease in 2024.

Next year, the effect of the strong interest rate increases by the European Central Bank (ECB), the lower confidence of companies and households and the weakness of the eurozone will weigh on growth. However, the 1.7% that Airef predicts in 2024 would be enough for Spain to once again be one of the European economies that grows the most next year.

With these figures in hand, the Tax Authority endorsed the macroeconomic scenario presented by the Government on October 16, in which an economic growth of 2% is expected in 2024.. However, the Tax Authority warns that some of the Government's approaches may lack a certain optimism.. Especially with regard to the growth of consumption and investment, which Airef sees as more moderate due to the impact that high official interest rates will have on households and companies still in 2024.

Regarding inflation, Airef expects that 2023 will close with a rise in consumer prices of 3.9%, which will remain practically unchanged next year (4%).. The reduction in inflation, they point out, is mainly supported by its most volatile components, while the underlying index shows some persistence.

Anti-crisis measures are incompatible with the deficit

The Tax Authority sees the Government's objective of reducing the public deficit to 3% of GDP next year as viable, which would allow Spain to comply with European fiscal rules that will be back in force after four years of suspension. However, they warn that the Executive's goal can only be met if each and every one of the anti-crisis energy support measures that expire in December of this year are withdrawn.. In addition, territorial administrations (autonomies and city councils) would have to do their part and limit the increase in spending. Airef's calculations do not leave any room for the Executive to further increase spending compared to what was proposed in the Budget Plan if it wants to comply with Brussels' recommendations.

Regarding public debt, the Fiscal Authority believes that it will be reduced to 105% of GDP in 2024. A figure still above the levels prior to the coronavirus crisis and incompatible with the maximum threshold of 60% required by the European Union.. Airef warns that, in the absence of adjustments, the debt ratio would rise again starting in 2028.

ECONOMY

Spain is the fourth European country that has increased its debt over GDP the most since 2019 and is already ahead of Portugal

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Spain is now the fourth country in the eurozone in which public debt has increased the most since the pandemic broke out.. Spanish national liabilities reached 1.57 trillion euros in the second quarter, which represents 111.2% of the country's GDP. This figure is 13 points higher than what was recorded when the coronavirus arrived and reflects an increase in debt that has little parallel in the rest of the European economies.

Only France, whose debt ratio has grown 14.5 points since then, the Czech Republic and Romania surpass Spain in this section. In comparison, eurozone countries have skyrocketed their debt measured over GDP by 6.2 percentage points since 2019, half what has happened in Spain.

This is clear from the public debt and deficit data until the second quarter of 2023 published by the European statistical office Eurostat.. Another conclusion offered by the figures released this Tuesday is that Spain has jumped from fifth to fourth place on the list of countries that accumulate the most debt in relation to the size of its economy.. This is because Portugal, which until now occupied fourth place, is reducing its debt ratio at a faster rate than Spain.. In this way, the most indebted EU countries in the second quarter were Greece – with a debt of 166.5% of its GDP -, Italy (142.4%), France (111.9%) and then Spain, with its 111.2%.

Spanish public debt began to grow in 2020 due to the exceptional increase in public spending launched to combat the pandemic. The State made an effort with few precedents in history and financed the ERTE and all the exceptional medical expenses derived from the pandemic. To a greater or lesser extent, all EU countries pulled out their checkbook and went into debt to overcome the trance of the pandemic.. Then came the war in Ukraine and energy support measures, which have added more pressure on public spending. These two factors have left the country's public finances battered, with a debt level that is still above the 98.2% recorded in the fourth quarter of 2019.

Public debt reached 125.3% of GDP in the first quarter of 2021, at a time when the economy had barely begun to recover from the collapse of 2020 and public spending was skyrocketing. However, the economic recovery of 2021 and 2022 and the disappearance of the bulk of pandemic spending once the health crisis was overcome have allowed Spain to somewhat redirect the situation.. Since then, the debt ratio has fallen 14 points and the Government expects it to continue doing so throughout this year until it is below 110% of GDP in 2023.

However, organizations such as the Bank of Spain or Airef – the independent watchdog of Spain's public finances – have warned on several occasions that from now on adjustments will be necessary for the debt ratio to continue declining.. That is, the Government will have to adopt measures that increase public income (mainly raise taxes) or cut spending so that the debt continues to decline.. Something that will be decisive in a year in which the fiscal rules of the European Union will operate again.

Debt ratios are the official metric used by the European Union to analyze the sustainability of the public finances of member countries.. By relating the size of the debt to the size of the economy that has contracted it, the capacity of each country to meet its financial obligations is better reflected.. In other words, it is not the same as a State with an economy like Spain's – which produced goods and services worth almost 1.4 trillion euros last year – owes almost 1.6 trillion euros to do so. a country like, for example, Estonia, which closed last year with a GDP of about 35 billion euros.

INTERNATIONAL

The mass shooting in Maine, in the US, becomes the worst of 2023 and one of the deadliest in history

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This Wednesday a mass shooting occurred in the city of Lewinston, in the state of Maine (United States).. A man, identified as Robert Card, opened fire in two different places: a bowling alley and a restaurant. Both shootings have left at least 22 dead and between 50 and 60 injured. If these figures are officially confirmed, it would be the deadliest shooting so far this year in the American country, and one of the worst in the country's recent history (eighth).

The United States is a country known for hosting a large number of such incidents each year.. This 2023, the American country has suffered a total of 36 mass shootings – where more than four people die – that have left a total of 188 dead around the different states.. This makes this record the second highest in the country's history, only behind 2019, according to the Gun Violence Archive.. So far, these are some of the biggest shootings of the year.

January 21, 11 dead. As soon as the year began, on January 21, a 72-year-old man, identified as Huu Can Tran, opened fire on a crowd of elderly people during the Lunar New Year dance in the city of Monterey Park, California.. The incident left 11 dead and 9 injured.. Hours later, the attacker died from an apparently self-inflicted gunshot wound, according to the Portland Press Herald.. This shooting is considered the deadliest in history in Los Angeles.

January 23, 7 dead. Two days later, on January 23, a 67-year-old man, Zhao Chunli, killed seven people in two separate shootings in the Californian city of Half Moon Bay.. According to prosecutors cited by the aforementioned media, the man killed four co-workers and injured another.. He later headed to another farm, from which he was fired in 2015, and ended the lives of three other former colleagues.

April 10, 5 dead. On April 10, a 25-year-old bank employee opened fire with a rifle at his workplace, an Old National Bank branch in Louisville, Kentucky. He ended the lives of five other people and injured nine others, while broadcasting it live on his Instagram account. Finally, when the police responded to the scene, they killed the shooter after an exchange of gunfire.

May 6, 8 dead. In the city of Allen, in the state of Texas, Mauricio Delgado, 33, who had a large arsenal of weapons in his home, killed eight people and wounded seven others after opening fire in a shopping center on May 6. Shortly after, the attacker was killed after being shot by a police officer.. According to the authorities, the man had made some publications on his social networks with misogynistic comments and comments about white supremacy, so it would be a racist attack.

May 23, 4 dead. On May 23, authorities imprisoned an 18-year-old man accused of patricide in the city of Nash, Texas.. The boy ended the lives of his father, his mother, his sister and his brother (4 people) after shooting them with a firearm. According to the authorities, the confessed author explained that “he killed his family because they were cannibals and they were going to eat him.”

The shooter, the car in which he fled…. Images of the massacre in Maine

Long history of mass shootings

Although 2023 has already become the second year with the highest number of mass shootings in its history, the United States has also previously been involved in other incidents of this type that have left a large number of deaths.

59 dead at Las Vegas concert. The deadliest shooting recorded by the country took place on October 1, 2017 in the city of Las Vegas, in the state of Nevada.. The city was hosting the Route 91 Harvest country music concert when Stephen Paddock, 64, opened fire from a nearby hotel room.. The shooting resulted in the death of 59 people – including the shooter – and 851 injuries, in what is considered the worst massacre in the country since the 9/11 attacks.

49 dead in an Orlando nightclub. On June 12, 2016, what is known as the Pulse nightclub massacre in Orlando, Florida, occurred, resulting in 49 deaths and 53 injuries.. A 29-year-old man, Omar Mir Seddique Mateen, entered the party room at 2:02 in the morning and, after swearing allegiance to the Islamic State, opened fire on those present.. After starting a shootout with police officers, the attacker locked himself in the premises, taking several hostages.. Subsequently, three hours later, at 5:00, the SWAT entered the premises and managed to shoot down the shooter.

32 dead at a Virginia university. Another of the most mass shootings in United States history occurred on April 16, 2007 at Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University.. At 7:15 a.m., 23-year-old South Korean student Seung-Hui Cho fired the first shot in the dormitories of the West Ambler Johnston Hall student residence.. Two hours later he blocked the doors of the building with chains and shot at the students who were present, causing the death of 32 people and wounding another 29.

20 dead at Connecticut school. In the wide catalog of shootings that have taken place in the United States, there is also the one that took place at Sandy Hook Elementary School, in the city of Newtown, in the state of Connecticut.. On December 14, 2012 at 9:30 a.m., Adam Lanza killed his mother in her own home after shooting her four times in the head.. Later, he took his mother's car and went to the aforementioned school with a rifle.. Once there, he opened fire and killed 28 people: 20 children and 8 adults, including the shooter and his mother.

21 dead at Texas school. Another of the most famous massacres in the history of the country took place at Robb Elementary School, on May 24, 2022, in the city of Uvalde, in the state of Texas.. In total, 21 people died and another 17 were injured.. Salvador Rolando Ramos, an 18-year-old young man, seriously injured his grandmother and later went to said school. Once there, outside the premises, the shooter fired several shots for five minutes, and later entered the building through a side door. Once inside, he entered a classroom and killed 19 children and 2 teachers. An hour after being locked in the classroom, the attacker was killed by the US Border Patrol.

INTERNATIONAL

The powerful Hurricane Otis leaves the city of Acapulco incommunicado and causes extensive damage on the Pacific coast of Mexico

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The impact of Hurricane Otis, which made landfall as a category 5 early this Wednesday on the Pacific coast of Mexico, left without communications and access to the city of Acapulco, one of the main tourist destinations in the country, which suffered severe damage to its road and communications infrastructure.

The state Federal Electricity Commission (CFE) of Mexico reported that it is working to restore electrical service in the state of Guerrero, after the passage of Hurricane Otis, whose powerful winds collapsed 58 high-voltage structures in the state, a problem that left without light to dozens of municipalities.

In addition, he said that due to these effects, 504,340 users were left without power, although the service of 202,932 users has been restored, that is, 40%.

The president of Mexico, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, arrived this Wednesday night in Acapulco after a journey that included a long stop on the Mexico-Acapulco highway, due to landslides caused by the hurricane, a traffic jam on a military vehicle, a crossing a river on foot, a walk through the undergrowth and a trip back to the capital by helicopter.

The president met with, among others, the Secretary of Defense, Luis Cresencio Sandoval; that of Marina, Rafael Ojeda; of Security, Rosa Icela Rodríguez, and the coordinator of National Civil Protection, Laura Velázquez, in addition to state and municipal authorities.

In the last few hours, Otis was reduced to a low pressure storm during its passage over the state of Michoacán, neighboring the southern state of Guerrero, reported the National Meteorological Service (SNM), although it noted that the intense rains, caused by the remnants of Otis, will continue this Thursday.

INTERNATIONAL

Qatar denounces Israeli provocations that "undermine" efforts to free the hostages: "We reject double standards"

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The Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs of Qatar, Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, denounced this Wednesday as “provocative” the statements of his Israeli counterpart, Eli Cohen, who before the United Nations said that “Hamas is Qatar”. Al Thani assured that these statements “undermine efforts” to free the hostages held by the Palestinian Islamist group.

The head of Qatari diplomacy expressed himself during a press conference he held in Doha together with the Turkish Foreign Minister, Hakan Fidan, who was visiting his country, in which he said he was “astonished” by these statements that were made just as Qatar strives “to secure the release of prisoners and de-escalate.”

“These provocative statements undermine efforts and cannot be understood except in the context of blackmail and political propaganda.”. “We hope that all parties will respect the efforts made by Qatar and its partners and help us make them successful,” he added.

The politician stressed that for his country, “the only way to a peaceful and immediate solution” to the crisis is to “keep all channels open with all parties,” since “rapid communication” is required to obtain results.

Furthermore, the Qatari prime minister reaffirmed his country's position “against the massive punishment against the Gaza Strip”, where “a flagrant violation of international laws” is taking place.

“We reiterate our total rejection of treating this crisis with double standards, you cannot condemn the murder of civilians here and justify it there. All parties involved in violating international law must be held accountable. If not, the logic of force will defeat the force of logic,” he said.

Eli Cohen accused Qatar of financing Hamas

In a statement to the United Nations Security Council, Eli Cohen said the international community should demand that Qatar step up its efforts to free the more than 200 people held captive in Gaza.

“Qatar, which finances and harbors Hamas leaders, could influence and allow the immediate and unconditional release of the hostages held by the terrorists,” Cohen emphasized.

The Arab country has hosted the political leadership of the Palestinian Islamist group for years and pays the salaries of Hamas officials in Gaza, in addition to frequently giving cash to poor families in the enclave.

However, this Wednesday the head of Israel's National Security, Tzachi Hanegbi, highlighted “Qatar's diplomatic efforts”, in possible allusion to its role in the release of hostages captured by Hamas.. “I am pleased to say that Qatar is becoming an essential part and player in promoting humanitarian solutions. Qatar's diplomatic efforts are crucial at this time,” Hanegbi wrote via Twitter.

INTERNATIONAL

Who is who in the 'terror summit' that has met in Lebanon to coordinate against Israel?

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Tension in the Middle East intensifies every day. The so-called Axis of Resistance, formed by Iran's allies and enemies of the United States and Israel, have agreed to coordinate the escalation of their response to the offensives launched by Israel in response to the unprecedented attack by Hamas on the Israeli population on June 7. October.

The head of the Lebanese Shiite group Hezbollah, Hasan Nasrallah, met this Wednesday with the leader of the Islamist movement Hamas, which killed more than 1,400 people and captured some 220 hostages in a massive attack on October 7 in southern Israel. , and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), with whom it agreed to maintain “coordination” in addition to studying the steps to follow during its response to Israel. According to the UN, after declaring war, the Israeli Army has in turn killed 6,547 people in Gaza.

“It was agreed to continue with the coordination, and with the monitoring of developments on a daily and permanent basis,” Hezbollah explained in a statement after finishing the meeting of its leader with the general secretary of the YIP, Ziad al-Najala, and the senior official of Hamas Saleh al-Arouri.

According to the note, during the meeting the three also discussed “what the parties of the Axis of the Resistance must do in this delicate phase to achieve a real victory for the Resistance in Gaza and Palestine, as well as stop the treacherous and brutal aggression against our oppressed people.”

Among the issues discussed were also the international positions on the matter, the latest developments in the Gaza war and the attacks that Hezbollah crosses with Israel from southern Lebanon.

Since last October 8, the Lebanese Shiite group and the Jewish State have been engaged in intense crossfire across the divide between both countries, where actions claimed by Palestinian factions present in Lebanese territory have also taken place.

Among them have been rocket launches and infiltration attempts by the armed wings of the PIJ and Hamas, which presumably would have acted with the approval of Hezbollah, under whose control the southern strip of Lebanon bordering Israel is located.

The escalation in the border areas has raised fears that Lebanon will become a second front in the war between Israel and militias in the Gaza Strip, while the Lebanese government maintains contacts domestically and internationally to try to contain the situation.

Nasrallah has yet to make a speech since the start of hostilities and this was his first meeting with senior Hamas and Islamic Jihad officials for the first time since the conflict between Israel and Hamas escalated on October 7 and fighting began. .

New crossfires

The meeting coincides with a new episode of crossfire. The Israeli Army and militias in southern Lebanon carried out this Wednesday the eighteenth consecutive day of hostilities on the border, with new exchanges of fire that included rocket fire and at least one anti-tank missile towards Israel, which responded with bombings and artillery.

The Israeli military spokesperson reported this Wednesday that its troops attacked two “terrorist cells” that were trying to launch projectiles into its territory at different points along the border.. Shortly after, he added that an anti-tank missile was fired at a group of soldiers in the community of Avivim, to which they responded with artillery fire towards the site from where the attack originated.

The launch of this missile was claimed shortly after by the Lebanese Shiite group Hezbollah, which said it had hit an Israeli tank, causing deaths and injuries, something the Army denied.

In recent days, the Shiite movement has recognized a significant number of new casualties in its ranks and now has 43 since the outbreak of border violence on October 8.

On the other hand, the UN peacekeeping mission in Lebanon (FINL) reiterated this Wednesday that it continues to be in contact with the “parties” involved in the border violence with Israel to try to “reduce tensions”, which have been steadily increasing for some time. more than two weeks.

Hostilities in the border area began a day after the attack by the Islamist movement Hamas against Israel that left some 1,400 dead triggered a war that this Thursday marks its twentieth day of fighting and has left more than 6,000 dead in Gaza.

Although different Palestinian militias have claimed responsibility for attacks from Lebanon in the last two weeks, the main clashes are between the Israeli Army and Hezbollah, which are experiencing their greatest moment of tension since the war they fought in 2006.

The incidents on the border have so far left at least 63 dead: 6 in Israel – 5 soldiers and a civilian – and at least 57 in Lebanon, including 8 civilians – among them a cameraman from the Reuters agency -, 43 members of Hezbollah and 6 members of Palestinian militias.

INTERNATIONAL

Two Palestinian journalists lose their entire family, wives and children, in two Israeli bombings in central Gaza

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The Al Jazeera news network has reported that the wife and two children of its editor-in-chief in Gaza, Wael al Dahdouh, have died in Israeli bombings against the south of the enclave, where the journalist's family moved after Israel's ultimatum. to leave the north.

“Several members of our colleague Wael al Dahdouh's family, including his wife, son and daughter, were martyred in an Israeli bombing of his home,” the network said in a statement.

Al Jazeera showed images of the journalist in the morgue, completely devastated, breathless and drowning in his own tears as he saw and held the bloody corpses of his children, aged 15 and 7.

These images have shocked all the journalists of Arab networks who continue to carry out their work in Gaza and have raised a wave of condemnations against the attacks on the press and civilians in the south of the Gaza Strip, where Israel called for the Palestinians to leave. displaced due to the intensification of bombing and a possible ground operation.

“We express our concern for the safety of our correspondents and teams in Gaza,” the network said in the note, in which it condemned “the indiscriminate attacks and murders of innocent civilians in Gaza, which have led to the tragic loss of Wael's family.” al Dahdouh and countless others.

Speaking to Al Jazeera as he left the hospital, al Dahdouh managed to say: “What happened is clear.. This is a series of selective attacks against children, women and civilians. I was reporting from Yarmouk on such an attack, and Israeli raids have targeted many areas, including Nuseirat. We had our doubts that the Israeli occupation would not let these people go without punishing them. And unfortunately that's what happened. “This is the safe zone that the occupation army talked about.”

The incessant Israeli bombings against the Gaza Strip have so far left more than 6,500 dead – around half of whom are children – and more than 17,000 injured, in the largest human catastrophe experienced in the devastated enclave, to which aid humanitarian is arriving in dribs and drabs

Al-Dahdouh is not the only journalist who has lost his family in Gaza in Israeli attacks. This Wednesday the desperation could also be seen in the expression of the Palestinian journalist Mohammed Farra when he received the news of the death of his wife and children from the bombs.

ECONOMY

The cap on the price of electricity awaits another extension beyond 2023: Brussels is already studying it and Ribera wants it "until it is necessary"

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The Iberian mechanism, the limit on the price of electricity that last year managed to contain the cost of electricity in Spain and Portugal, could remain in place beyond December 31, the date on which it must expire. The European Commission is already studying a possible extension of this and other emergency measures that the EU took last year to cushion the energy price crisis and reduce its dependence on Russia that caused the war in Ukraine, in this case due to instability geopolitics, also with effects on energy, due to the situation in the Middle East. Before making a decision, the third vice president, Teresa Ribera, made it clear this Wednesday that Spain will support an extension “until it is necessary.”

“My natural inclination is that, given that it has not generated distortions in and has worked well, all measures should be extended until when necessary,” Ribera responded to a question from MEP Nicolás González Casares about the possible extension beyond the end of year of the Iberian mechanism and also of other measures such as saving gas or electricity consumption, facing next winter and in the face of the uncertainty that, once again, exists in the gas market due to the infrastructure sabotage that González has recalled that still exists in the Baltic or the “complicated geopolitical situation”.

Ribera defended extending the measures during an appearance in the Industry, Transport and Energy committee of the European Parliament, just one day after Energy Commissioner Kadris Simson stated that the Commission is already studying this possibility.. “We will consult with our services and if it is necessary to extend the measures, we are willing to do so,” he said.

At the moment, the EU does not need to buy more gas because its warehouses are 98% full. After reducing its dependence on Russian gas by 90%, diversifying suppliers and achieving a record deployment of wind and photovoltaics to partially supply it, it would face a calm winter from an energy point of view if it were not for the fact that the crisis between Israel and Hamas has I have come to remind you of the ups and downs of last year due to the war in Ukraine, which still continues.

For this reason, Brussels is analyzing whether to propose to the Twenty-Seven to extend the exceptional measures it took last year beyond December 31.. Then, the Member States committed to voluntarily cut gas and electricity consumption and make it mandatory if a shortage situation occurred in several countries that ultimately did not occur.. Thanks to this, the EU reduced its electricity demand by 18% last year.

Also emergency measures were the creation of a tax on energy companies, to redistribute part of their extraordinary profits, which Spain also extended to banking.. Equally important was the limit of 180 euros MWh at which electricity from a renewable or nuclear source would be paid if gas rose above that price again.

This last measure, which cost a lot to agree on in the EU and which has never had to be used afterwards, is the one that has just set a precedent for a possible extension of the other measures.. The agreement on the reform of the electricity market that the Twenty-seven reached last week contemplates an extension of the cap of 180 euros for six months, until June 2024.

Containment of the price of electricity

Specifically for Spain and Portugal and after all a diplomatic offensive by their two governments, in March 2022 they obtained the green light to set a cap on the price of electricity that was generated with technologies other than gas, so, in exceptionally, the price of this raw material – which multiplied by five and six its price last year – would be decoupled from the rest of the electricity, produced with cheaper sources. The so-called 'Iberian mechanism' put a cap on the price of gas – and therefore, the rest of the technologies – at which all electricity would pay, compensating only the operators of the combined cycle plants for the real market price of gas.

The mechanism began in June 2022, in principle until May 2023, with an initial limit of 40 euros/Mwh during the first six months, which would then escalate to 48 at the end of 2022, but whose cadence was modified by the first extension that Spain and Portugal managed to extend it, not one year as Spain wanted, but another six months, until next December 31. The limit for October was set at 62 euros per megawatt and October would end at 65. This means that the Iberian mechanism would only be put in place to limit the price of gas when it exceeded these thresholds and what has meant that, with the drop in gas below the progressive limits for each month, it stopped being used for the first time in November 2022 and has not been activated again since February 2023.

In any case, the balance of its operation is that it has served to at least contain the price of electricity in Spain and Portugal compared to those it marked at the worst moments of the crisis in other EU countries.. The Government estimates savings for homes and industry at around 5,000 million, despite the fact that the more expensive the gas was, the higher the compensation that consumers had to pay for the difference between the limited price and the real price, which in On some occasions the savings were zero.

The Iberian mechanism has not been without controversy since its birth. The PP called it an “Iberian scam” and in its electoral program for the general elections last July proposed eliminating it. The electricity companies confronted the Ministry of Ecological Transition by passing on the electricity bill the cost of compensation for a new rate that had to be corrected.

In any case, the comparison during the second half of 2022 between the price of electricity in Spain and Portugal and countries such as France, Germany or Italy showed that the mechanism ensured that the high price of gas did not spread to the rest of the countries. electricity. Its best days were those in which there was a lot of photovoltaic or wind power, which were paid at the maximum price and therefore it was necessary to buy little gas, so the cost of compensation was low.

Decision in December

The price of gas is far from the peaks of 2022 but the conflict between Israel and Hamas is already generating tensions in gas production and transportation, in Israel and Egypt, and has already caused new price peaks that, without reaching the threshold of 62 euros in October -this Wednesday it marked 45 euros-. This has once again put Europe on alert, both governments such as the Spanish one, which already this year wanted to extend the Iberian mechanism throughout 2024, and institutions more reluctant to intervene in the market, such as the European Commission.

As he did when the drop in gas left this and other limits suspended a few months ago, Ribera defended this Wednesday a new extension as a warning to the market that the price of gas will not be allowed to run wild again and, with it, the price of all electricity, even if it is from cheaper sources.

Eliminating this and other emergency measures to contain the price of electricity, he said, “is also a signal to the markets that we will later regret.”

At the moment, the Commission is evaluating whether the situation makes it necessary to extend the emergency measures. If she decides to raise it, the European Energy Ministers will have to approve it before the end of the year, until Ribera will continue to be President of the Council. Taking into account what happened in the first extension of the Iberian mechanism, it is possible to think that the monthly caps on the price of gas would be reordered for the new period that was agreed upon.

The next and last formal meeting of the Energy Ministers will be on December 19, although Ribera has made it clear this Wednesday that he is not afraid to call other extraordinary meetings to move forward with this and other agreements still pending, such as the reform of the energy market. electricity or the directive to reduce methane emissions, which is currently being negotiated with the European Parliament.

“We end December 2022 with the Council building opening only for Energy councils. “I have no problem celebrating Christmas with all of you,” he warned.

INTERNATIONAL

Trumpist Mike Johnson, new president of the US House of Representatives

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Congressman Mike Johnson has been formally declared the new Speaker of the United States House of Representatives. He has obtained 220 votes compared to Democrat Hakeem Jeffries' 209. The congressman was the fourth Republican nominated to lead the US House of Representatives in two weeks.

The Republican faced the challenge of overcoming the divisions of a narrow majority of 221 seats compared to the Democrats' 212. To do this, Johnson needed the vote in favor of practically all the members of his bench.

The Louisiana representative has received the support of former United States President Donald Trump during his candidacy, who has referred to him as “a tremendous congressman, respected by everyone.”

Johnson was a key ally of Trump in his attempt to stop Congress from ratifying Democrat Joe Biden's victory in the 2020 presidential election through false allegations of electoral fraud. The position of speaker of the House of Representatives had been vacant since fellow Republican Kevin McCarthy was removed on October 3 following a vote of no confidence from the party's toughest wing.

Johnson was the fourth Republican nominee, after Steve Scalise, Jim Jordan and Tom Emmer.

Scalise resigned without submitting to the plenary session due to lack of support, Jordan lost three votes in the House due to not having the support of several moderate members of his party and Emmer surrendered this Tuesday just four hours after being nominated because he did not have the support of Trump supporters.

Until a new president emerged, new resolutions or bills could not be approved at a time when the approval of new military aid for Ukraine and Israel or the negotiation of the budget for the current fiscal year is up in the air.

Biden says he is not worried

The president of the United States, Joe Biden, denied being worried about the appointment of Mike Johnson despite knowing that he is a firm ally of former president Donald Trump.

The president was asked in a press conference if he was concerned about the possibility that Johnson would block in Congress the ratification of Biden's eventual re-election in next year's elections.

“No, because he can't,” responded Biden, who stated that he was not worried when some Republicans tried to reverse the Democratic victory in 2020.. “I know how the Constitution works,” declared the president.

INTERNATIONAL

Bullrich supports Milei in the second round of the Argentine presidential elections: "We are facing the dilemma of change or mafia continuity

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The former candidate of the opposition coalition Together for Change (center-right), Patricia Bullrich, will support the libertarian Javier Milei in the second round of the Argentine presidential elections, as she announced this Wednesday.

In a press conference held in Buenos Aires together with Luis Petri, who accompanied her in the candidacy as a candidate for vice president, the former Minister of Security said that they could not be “neutral” in the second round and that she is “faced with the dilemma of change or mafia continuity”.

Bullrich was third (23.83%) in the elections held this Sunday, in which the candidate of Unión por la Patria (ruling Peronism), Sergio Massa, won with 36.28% of votes, ahead of the leader of La Libertad Avanza (far-right), who received 29.98%.

“Argentina, from our point of view, cannot restart a new Kirchnerist cycle led by (the Minister of Economy) Sergio Massa,” because “it would lead Argentina to its final decline,” said Bullrich.. “Today we must join forces for a higher objective,” insisted Bullrich, who relied on the Argentine hero José de San Martín: “When the country is in danger, everything is allowed, except not defending it.”

For the presidential ticket that came third in the elections, if Massa wins, the State “will continue to be a den” of employees who do not work, privileges for politicians, “managers of poverty” and gangsters.

“Friendly capitalism”

Bullrich, who returned to the presidency of the Republican Proposal (Pro) party after the license requested for the campaign, said that the current vice president, Cristina Fernández, “will continue to put judges on hand” to guarantee her impunity; “crony capitalism will be the rule”; Congress will “become a notary office”; the governors will depend on the “discretion” of the Executive; and security will be “at stake.”

Petri completed: “Neutrality is functional to Kirchnerism”, alluding to the wing of Peronism embodied by the deceased former president Néstor Kirchner (2003-2007) and his wife, also former president Cristina Fernández (2007-2015).

Bullrich and Petri clarified that they expressed their position on behalf of the 6.2 million votes they obtained last Sunday, but that the parties of the Together for Change coalition – including Pro and the Unión Cívica Radical (UCR), which the former vice presidential candidate belongs to – “have freedom of action.”

“Let's hope this does not mean a rupture in the internal dialogue,” but rather “a strengthening of the future of Together for Change,” said Bullrich, who later added: “From my perspective, if Kirchnerism wins, Together for Change will a total dissolution.”