All posts by Luis Moreno

Moreno Luis - is a business and economics reporter based in Barcelona. Prior to joining the BNE24 he was economics editor of the BBC Spaine and worked as an economics and political reporter for Murcia Tuday.

The final vote in Poland confirms a victory without a majority for the Government party

The Polish Electoral Commission reported this Tuesday that the counting of votes for Sunday's general elections has been completed, with a victory without a majority for the Government party and the possibility of an alternative for the opposition.

According to official data, the government PiS (Law and Justice) obtained 35.38 percent of the support, the opposition Civic Platform 30.70 percent, the centrist Third Way coalition 14.40 percent, New Left 8, 61 percent and Confederation 7.16 percent of the votes.

In the absence of official statements from the respective leaders, the option of a coalition that brings together the liberal Civic Platform of former Prime Minister Donald Tusk and some of the other opposition parties is opening up, with the aim of removing the power to PiS, which has governed since 2015.

The projections describe a Parliament made up of 194 seats for PiS, 157 for Civic Platform, 65 for Third Way, 26 for Left and 18 for Confederation.

The simple majority obtained by the ultra-conservative party PiS, and its zero possibilities of forming any alliance, open the possibility that a multiparty pact led by PO could reach 248 deputies, considerably more than the 231 required for an absolute majority.

In the Senate, it is expected that the implicit pact that the opposition has formed during the last legislature will be maintained and that, after the results of Sunday's elections, they will be able to renew with the 64 seats that they will control by joining forces.

A train of MEPs going from Brussels to Strasbourg ends up at Eurodisney by mistake

A passenger train that was traveling between Brussels and Strasbourg (France) to take MEPs and officials to the plenary session of the European Parliament ended up mistakenly at the Disneyland theme park station in Paris this Monday, with a delay of 46 minutes and many jokes from travelers on social networks.

The train driver made a mistake after leaving Charles de Gaulle airport in Paris and took the track that led to the Marne-la-Vallée Chessy station, located next to the well-known playground, confirmed the SNCF, the company that manages the French railway system. .

One of the parliamentary workers who was on the train explained to EFE that, approximately ten minutes after leaving the airport, the driver informed them over the public address system that he had taken the wrong route and that he had to correct the route, which he did in the station at the gates of Disneyland.

In total, he estimated, they were stopped for about 20 minutes and the arrival in Strasbourg was 46 minutes after the initially scheduled time.

“Team Disneyland,” wrote Dutch liberal MEP Samira Rafaela on X (formerly Twitter), sharing a photo from the cafeteria car with her socialist compatriot Mohammed Chahim.

It didn't take long for the reactions and memes to reach social networks, where jokes and comments such as the following have been shared:

The trip was part of the monthly trip that MEPs and their teams make from Brussels, where practically all committee and day-to-day work is carried out, to Strasbourg, where plenary sessions are held for four days each month.

Although this duplication of parliamentary venues has been criticized for being impractical and for the carbon footprint it leaves, the holding of twelve plenary sessions a year in the French city is guaranteed by European treaties and Paris defends it staunchly.

Belgium raises terrorist threat level for Brussels to maximum

The Belgian Government's National Crisis Center has announced that it is raising the terrorist threat level for the Brussels-Capital region to 4, the maximum, in response to the incident in which at least two people were shot dead by an individual.

“Threat level 4 for the Brussels-Capital region. Greater vigilance required. Avoid unnecessary travel,” the National Crisis Center has published on its Twitter account.

The Belgian Prime Minister, Alexander De Croo, has already conveyed his “heartfelt condolences” to the families of “this cowardly attack” perpetrated in Brussels.. “I am closely following the situation together with the Ministers of Justice and Interior from the National Crisis Center,” he explained, while asking the population of Brussels to “be attentive.”

The Minister of the Interior, Annelies Verlinden, has warned of a “horrible shooting in Brussels”. “We are looking for the person responsible. The police and prosecutor's investigation is underway. “I am following the situation and the measures to be taken with the National Crisis Center,” he explained.

Police sources cited by the regional media group Sudinfo indicate that a man opened fire indiscriminately with a Kalashnikov-type rifle shouting “Alahu akbar!”. The attacker was wearing a helmet and a reflective vest and fled on a moped.

"Please get me out of here": Hamas publishes the first video of a hostage held in Gaza after the attack on the festival

The Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) published this Monday a first video of a 21-year-old French-Israeli hostage who remains held in the Gaza Strip after the attack by the Palestinian group on the electronic music festival in southern Israel.

“Hello, my name is Mia Schem. I am 21 years old and I am from Shoham. Right now I'm in Gaza. I returned early Saturday morning from a party in Sderot. I seriously injured my hand. They brought me to Gaza and took care of me in the hospital here,” he explains in the recording, subtitled in Arabic and collected by the Israeli newspaper Haaretz.

The young woman, who appears looking at the camera on a brown background after several shots in which a person adjusts the bandages on her hand, has asked to be taken home “soon” to reunite with her family.. “Please get me out of here as soon as possible,” the young woman asks, speaking in Hebrew.

The Israel Defense Forces confirmed this Monday that 199 people are being held by Palestinian militiamen in the Gaza Strip, a new official figure that the Army has made public after having notified their respective families.

Israeli authorities reported that they had recovered more than 250 bodies at a music festival venue in the Negev desert when Palestinian militias carried out armed raids.

The music festival was organized to coincide with the Jewish holiday of Sukkot.. It started at 11pm on Friday and lasted all night with thousands of attendees, mostly Israelis between 20 and 40 years old.

The perpetrator of the shooting in Brussels fled on a motorcycle after killing two people: this was the moment of the attack

At least two people have died and several have been injured this Monday after the gun attack near Saintelette Square in Brussels. The shooting occurred shortly after 7:00 p.m., when the individual began shooting with a large-caliber weapon, according to police sources.

Belgian Police prioritize terrorist hypothesis. In addition, several videos have appeared on social networks. One of them can be seen at the moment of the attack, where you can see how a man with an orange reflective jacket and a white helmet arrives on a motorcycle on a sidewalk, throws the vehicle and begins shooting from both sides.

Shortly after, he enters a glass building where he shoots a person who immediately falls to the ground.. In the background, several citizens who witness the scene flee the scene.

In another video, the alleged attacker appears in the foreground and proclaims his membership in the Islamic State and boasts of having killed several infidels.. The speech vindicates his action to “avenge Muslims in the name of those of us who live and die for our religion.”

He had also previously published a message about the six-year-old Palestinian boy murdered this Sunday by a 71-year-old man in Chicago “for being Muslim.”. If he had been a Christian “we would have called it terrorism and not a brutal crime,” he alleged.. Belgian police have not yet linked the people in the videos to the attack.

At least two killed by rifle shots in Brussels shouting "Alahu akbar": it is being investigated as a possible terrorist attack

At least two people have died and several more have been injured by firearms in an incident that occurred shortly after 7:00 p.m. near Saintelette Square in Brussels.. A man, dressed in a bright orange jacket, opened fire “indiscriminately”, according to the Belgian press, in a busy area, near the Grand Place, ending the lives of both Swedish nationals.. In addition, there is a third person injured.

At this time, the Belgian Police are prioritizing the hypothesis that it is a terrorist attack because, in addition, the person involved has fled shouting “Alahu akbar!”. A search and capture device has been deployed after the man fled carrying a Kalashnikov and the Government has raised the terrorist alert to the maximum level, 4, which represents “a serious or imminent threat”. In addition, the authorities have asked citizens to avoid going out and not to make unnecessary trips, and on the other hand, France has reinforced controls on the border with Belgium.

“We live for our religion and we die for our religion,” he reportedly said before shooting, according to the newspaper Le Soir.. The event occurs precisely on the day that the Belgian and Swedish teams face each other in a qualifying match for the 2024 European Football Championship; The match was suspended at half-time.

The recording of the attack, published by a resident of the area, shows how a man with an orange reflective jacket and white helmet arrives on a motorcycle on a sidewalk, throws the vehicle and begins shooting from both sides.. Shortly after, he enters a glass building where you can see him shooting a person who immediately falls to the ground.

In another video, the alleged attacker appears in the foreground, identifies himself as Slayem Slouma and proclaims his membership in the Islamic State and boasts of having killed “three Swedes” whom he describes as “infidels.”. The very violent speech vindicates his action to “avenge the Muslims in the name of those of us who live and die for our religion.”. Slouma had previously published a message about the six-year-old Palestinian boy murdered this Sunday by a 71-year-old man in Chicago “for being Muslim”. If he had been a Christian “we would have called it terrorism and not a brutal crime,” he alleged.

The reactions have not been long in coming. The first, that of the Belgian Prime Minister, Alexander de Croo, who assured that he was following the situation “together with the Ministers of Justice and the Interior” and has offered full collaboration to the Swedish citizens displaced to the Belgian capital.. The president of the European Council, Charles Michel, spoke along the same lines: “The heart of Europe is struck by violence. My heart goes out to the families of the victims of the deadly attack in the center of Brussels. “My support to the Belgian authorities and the security services who are monitoring the situation.”

For her part, the president of the European Parliament, Roberta Metsola, has published that “terrorism and extremism cannot infiltrate our societies. People should feel safe. “Hate will not win”. The president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, reiterated “the union of all against terrorism.”

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Shooting in Brussels, latest live news: dead, injured, attacker…

Dozens of people are waiting for the opening of the Rafah crossing to flee Gaza: "We have no water in the sinks or bathrooms"

“I came to visit Gaza, my (American) passport expired and then the US Embassy did nothing to help us,” laments Eilen al Tauil, a Palestinian-American, who has tried to leave through the Rafah crossing on several occasions. dodging Israeli bombings. “It's being very hard, we don't have water in the sinks or bathrooms,” adds an American woman from Salt Lake City (Utah, USA), also waiting to flee the Strip.

Al Tauil remains waiting for the border with Egypt to open after the announcement of a humanitarian corridor that has never been launched. It's not the only one. Without water, electricity or internet, a crowd of desperate Palestinians gathered this Monday at the Rafah crossing, which connects the Gaza Strip with Egypt, in the hope that humanitarian aid would arrive that has not yet arrived, in the midst of the rumors that the pass was going to open.

However, the hours passed and the crossing remained closed for the Palestinians, who saw a ray of hope in the early news that appeared in the media indicating that the crossing was going to be open between 9:00 a.m. and 3:00 p.m. local time ( 06:00 and 12:00 GMT time). Specifically, they were waiting for eight aid trucks to enter the Strip with humanitarian assistance and for Palestinians with foreign passports, especially American ones, to be allowed to leave the enclave, controlled by the Palestinian Islamist group Hamas, towards Egypt.

All this amid information indicating that there was an agreement between Egypt, the US and Israel for a ceasefire in the Strip, which was later denied by the office of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Neither ceasefire nor humanitarian aid in exchange for the departure of those with foreign passports. This is how categorical Netanyahu's office was when it came to denying this information, despite the fact that on Sunday the US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, announced in Cairo an agreement with the involvement of the UN, Egypt and other actors to open Rafah's move to assistance.

However, if this aid crossed the border crossing, it would be difficult to access the Gazans, since, as EFE was able to verify this Monday, the two main streets of Rafah through which the 8 trucks would have to pass from the crossing are completely bombed. Even so, these difficulties did not deter many Palestinians who approached the crossing this Monday, not even the Israeli bombings, such as the one that occurred in the vicinity of the border post.

Not far from Al Tauil, Ayam, a 17-year-old girl with a British passport, was also waiting for the opening of the crossing. “We are trying to leave, we came here two days ago, but it was not open and we returned home. Today we returned early in the day,” he tells EFE, while pointing out that due to the lack of internet connection, every time they hear a bomb they don't know where it comes from.

Ayam and her family members aspire to leave for Egypt if the passage opens at some point, because, as the teenager explained, the situation in the Strip is “terrible.”

“Not a liter of drinking water”

Hamas stated this Monday that for the tenth consecutive day Israel has not pumped “not even a liter of drinking water” to the enclave, despite the fact that the Israeli authorities announced this Sunday that it had resumed partial supplies.

Hamas Ministry of Interior and National Security spokesman Iyad Al Bozum stressed in a statement that the cutting off of drinking water “is forcing Gazans to drink contaminated water.” He predicted that this will lead to a health crisis that will threaten the lives of citizens living in the Strip.

Currently getting a bottle of water in Rafah is impossible, as EFE was able to verify by visiting hundreds of small stores in search of liquid suitable for consumption.

A truck with tap water has arrived in Rafah and Khan Yunis and has been distributed among Gazans, although in a limited way, only 20 liters per family, so many are resorting to boiling it to kill possible bacteria.

Tension has increased enormously since Hamas launched, on October 7, an attack by land, sea and air from Gaza that caused at least 1,400 deaths, the vast majority civilians, and has unleashed a harsh counterattack by Israel, which has carried out ten days bombing the Gaza Strip, leaving at least 2,808 Palestinians dead and 10,850 injured.

The Government raises its growth forecast for 2023 to 2.4% and does not rule out extending anti-war support measures

The Government has revised upwards its economic growth forecast for 2023 and now places it at 2.4%, three tenths above the reference with which it prepared the General State Budgets for 2023. This is reflected in the Budget Plan that the Executive sent to Brussels on Sunday, but whose content was published this Monday. The new forecast is more in line with what most analysts point out and reflects the “greater dynamism of the Spanish economy,” defends the Ministry of Economic Affairs in a note that accompanies the dissemination of the report.

The document, which includes the general lines of the budgets of all public administrations, does not include the extension of the energy support measures that end on December 31. Of course, the Executive makes it clear that it reserves the right to extend or introduce new measures next year if Pedro Sánchez manages to be re-elected.

Unlike the positive revision of expected growth for 2023, the Executive has cut its expectations for next year. A year in which the GDP is expected to advance by 2.4%, four tenths less than the Government itself predicted in April. The outbreak of the war in Gaza and the war in Ukraine cause the Executive to place “geopolitical tensions and conflicts” as “the main risk factor for the economy due to its potential impact on energy markets and economic activity in Europe.” and worldwide”.

“The conflict in the Middle East broke out a few days ago and we are seeing the short-term effect,” said the Secretary of State for Economy and Business, Gonzalo García, in statements to the press this Monday.. “The forecasts are prudent and reflect a scenario of volatility and possible risks of pressure on international energy prices,” he added.

Regarding the drag on growth that interest rate increases will pose – whose effect on the economy will be fully felt in 2024 – García recognizes the adverse effect they are having on mortgages and investment. However, the Secretary of State has defended that employment, salary income or the deployment of the recovery plan will more than offset the negative impact of monetary policy.

Regarding employment, the Executive trusts that between 2023 and 2024 700,000 full-time jobs will be created and that the unemployment rate will fall below 11% next year. Along these lines, it is expected that salaries will continue to recover purchasing power with a growth in salaries that would exceed the increase in consumer prices.

Regarding public finances, the Government maintains its objective of reducing the deficit to 3% of GDP in 2024. Which in principle would require a fiscal adjustment of about 12,000 million, as long as the objective set for 2023 of 3.9% is met.. Regarding public debt, the plan is to bring it to 106.3% next year.

The unknown remains about energy support

Since the General State Budgets (PGE) have not begun to be processed, the Government has proposed a budget scenario that does not include new spending or income measures.. With exceptions such as the revaluation of pensions in accordance with the CPI or the increase in public salaries, which are expenses that were already planned.

In principle, if the Budget Plan is followed, the energy support measures for homes and companies that expire on December 31 would not be renewed. However, the Executive has made it clear that it does not rule out extending some or introducing new ones if it manages to revalidate its mandate in the coming weeks or months.. “There is no decision made regarding possible changes to the measures that expire at the end of the year,” said García, who added that it will be the new Government that will decide when it starts working.

It is worth remembering that, among the measures that are in the air, are the entire tax reduction on the electricity and gas bill (the taxation is practically at the legal minimum); the Iberian mechanism to lower the wholesale price of electricity; the VAT reduction on certain basic foodstuffs or discounts on fuel for professional use by transporters.

Housing prices rise 4.9% in September despite the collapse in home sales and mortgage signing

The increase in housing prices does not stop. In the last year the price of apartments has risen almost 5%, compared to September 2022. This is clear from the data released this Monday by the valuation company Tinsa, which points to an even more pronounced price increase in the Canary and Balearic Islands, where the year-on-year increase is close to 9%.. Despite the “trend towards stabilization”, price increases persist in a context in which home sales and mortgage firms continue to decline.

House prices increased by 4.9% year-on-year in September, a growth rate slightly lower than the 5.3% recorded in August. In fact, in monthly terms – that is, compared to the price level in August – in the ninth month of 2023 the cost of real estate barely increased by 0.1%, which points, according to Tinsa, to a “trend towards the stabilization of residential prices”. Despite the increase experienced in the last year, housing prices are still 19.2% below the maximums recorded during the real estate boom.

New and second-hand housing has accumulated more than two years of consecutive price increases month after month, since April 2021. According to Tinsa data, in recent months year-on-year increases have stabilized at around 5%, which represents a moderation in increases with respect to price behavior in 2022.. In September of last year, for example, the rebound was 7.4% and reached up to 8% in October.

Despite the slowdown, housing prices refuse to fall, even in a context of cooling of the real estate market like the current one.. Without knowing the data for September, according to the latest provisional data from the College of Registrars, the fall in home sales accelerated in August while mortgages stabilized their decline. Transactions decreased by 14.9% compared to August 2022, chaining the ninth consecutive month of falls. For their part, mortgages on homes sank 21.8%.

“The reduction in residential demand is occurring gradually. The erosion of inflation on household savings and the impact of rising interest rates moderates residential sales mainly due to fewer mortgages being granted, but housing continues to channel savings,” explains Cristina Arias, director of the Housing Service. Studies by Tinsa, which indicate that maintaining employment rates is allowing households to maintain their solvency, which will slowly recover their purchasing power as inflation moderates.

An increase of 8.9% in the islands

The price increase does not affect the entire territory equally. The archipelagos are by far the areas where housing has become more expensive. In the Canary Islands and the Balearic Islands, the price of real estate has increased by 8.9% in the last year and in the last month alone its value has grown by 2.3%.. These data are far from those of the rest of the areas analyzed by Tinsa, which estimates the price increase in metropolitan areas at 5.9% compared to September 2022.. They are followed by the Mediterranean coast and the capitals and large cities, where the increase has been 4.8% and 4.6% respectively, compared to the increase of 2.1% in the smaller towns in the interior of the peninsula.

From Tinsa they point out that the exceptional performance of housing prices in the archipelagos – which is only 3.9% from the maximums recorded during the real estate boom – is due to investment by foreign buyers. “Residential demand is reducing more slowly in the segment of foreign residents. This especially affects the island territory and some areas of the Mediterranean coast, where sales by foreigners have had greater weight during the first half of the year,” explains Arias.

According to the latest data from the General Council of Notaries, the purchase of homes by foreigners fell by 7.5% in the first half of 2023 compared to the same period last year.. This decline broke the upward trend recorded in the second half of 2022. In the first six months of the year, there were 67,983 property purchases by foreign buyers. 12.7% of these transactions were concentrated in the Balearic Islands and the Canary Islands.

The rise in inflation places the average salary increases below the price increase in September for the first time since April

Rising inflation keeps attention on consumers' pockets. In the last year, prices have increased by 3.5%, as confirmed this Friday by the National Institute of Statistics (INE). The rise of almost one point in the variation rate of the CPI in September has caused the wage increases agreed in the collective agreements to be below the price increase for the first time in five months, despite the progress of the revaluation of the salaries.

The collective bargaining statistics of the Ministry of Labor indicate that the salaries agreed upon in the 3,110 agreements registered until September have risen on average by 3.41%, an increase that has affected more than 9.5 million workers.. This revaluation improves the August figure (3.38%) and closes the gap with the 4% increase recommended in the V Agreement for Employment and Collective Bargaining (AENC) signed by unions (CCOO and UGT) and employers (CEOE and Cepyme) in May as guidance.

Despite the upward trend in salary increases agreed upon in the agreement, the growth in prices brought forward the revaluation of salaries in September.. In year-on-year terms, inflation accelerated nine tenths in the ninth month of 2023, reaching a rate of 3.5%, the highest in five months, as reflected by INE data.. The rise in prices slightly exceeds that in salaries, something that has not happened since April, when the CPI variation rate reached 4.1%, compared to an agreement wage increase of 3.14%. In the following months, the slowdown in inflation left room for salaries, which grew above 3.2%.

In this period, inflation has risen for three months, after falling to 1.9% in June, momentarily meeting the European Central Bank's (ECB) objective of containing price growth to 2%—suspended until end of the year-. That slowdown was circumstantial. The threshold desired by the monetary authority was exceeded again in July, with an interannual variation rate of the CPI of 2.3%, which has been followed by two more increases. The most pronounced has been that recorded in the last month, in which inflation accelerated nine tenths to register a rate of 3.5%.

The rise in prices is fundamentally due to a statistical effect called 'base effect' or 'step effect'. When inflation is measured in year-on-year terms, as a percentage of variation between the CPI of one month and that of the same period of the previous year, the comparison with September 2022—when the escalation in energy prices began to subside—is unfavorable.. Gasoline, for example, has become more expensive by 15.8% in the last year. In fact, by excluding the price of energy and unprocessed food from the calculation, core inflation moderated in September by three tenths to 5.8%, its lowest rate since June 2022.

An indicative 4%

In this way, the increase in inflation has not been unforeseen, but was expected due to the 'base effect', which will continue to push the CPI upwards until the end of the year.. The European Commission's forecasts indicate that Spain will close 2023 with an average level of price increase of 3.6%, the lowest rate expected among the main economies of the eurozone and similar to that predicted by the Bank of Spain. In this inflation environment, the social agents signed the V AENC in May, a framework agreement that recommends salary increases of 4% in 2023 and 3% for both 2024 and 2025, with a salary review clause that, in the event of deviation from inflation, could imply additional increases of up to 1% for each of the years of validity of the agreement.

According to data from the Ministry of Labor, most of the salary increases with effect in 2023 were agreed before employers and unions reached an understanding and are far from the level set in the framework agreement. Specifically, 74.2% of the 3,110 collective agreements that have given rise to salary increases so far this year were signed before 2023 and include average increases of 3.09%, compared to an increase of 4.27% signed in the 801 agreements reviewed this year.

There are also differences by sector, agreements relating to domestic activities are those that include the largest increases, with an average salary increase of 6.35%. They are followed by the agreements signed in the sectors of artistic and recreational activities, hospitality and commerce, all of them with average revaluations above 3.7%. On the other hand, agreements related to the supply of energy, real estate activities and extractive industries do not reach an average increase of 2.4%.

Decreased purchasing power

The upward trend in salary increases does not compensate for the loss of purchasing power that salaries have accumulated in recent years. The average salary increase agreed upon in the agreement in 2022 was 2.99% – the percentage rose to 3.18% once the salary guarantee clauses were applied – a figure almost three times lower than inflation, which registered a rate average of 8.5% for the year as a whole. Although less profound, in 2021 the difference had also been in favor of the CPI, with salaries rising on average by 1.61%, compared to the 3.1% annual variation in prices.

According to collective bargaining statistics, only 449 of the agreements registered so far this year include salary guarantee clauses—and only 311 do they apply retroactively—that is, they contemplate upward or downward modifications to the salary tables. depending on price developments. These safeguard clauses affect 2.19 million workers, which represents 23% of the total number of employees covered by the more than 3,110 agreements recorded so far this year.