The Emirati company Taqa is currently engaged in discussions with various shareholders of Spanish energy company Naturgy to potentially become a shareholder themselves. On Wednesday, the National Securities Market Commission (CNMV) confirmed these talks after days of speculation. The approval of the government is needed for this operation, and they will wait for more details before deciding how to react.

The rumors surrounding this potential arrangement led to the suspension of Naturgy’s trading on the stock market for an hour. After trading resumed, the company’s stock rose by 6.1% at the close of the session. The main shareholder of Naturgy, CriteriaCaixa, has confirmed that it has had preliminary contacts with a potential investment group.

According to the CNMV statement, Taqa has confirmed discussions with CriteriaCaixa regarding a possible cooperation agreement related to Naturgy. Taqa is also negotiating with the CVC and GIP funds, which hold significant shares in Naturgy, for a potential purchase of their shares.

If Taqa’s participation in Naturgy exceeds 30%, Spanish law would require Taqa to present a takeover bid for the entire capital of the company. Such a bid can only be authorized with the government’s approval, especially considering Naturgy’s status as a strategic company for Spain. Naturgy is a major supplier of natural gas in the country and a significant player in the national electricity market.

Reports suggest that the takeover bid would only proceed with the approval of the Spanish government and CriteriaCaixa. The aim would be to reorganize the company’s capital while safeguarding Spanish interests. The government has stated that it will wait for Taqa’s official proposal before taking action to protect Spain’s strategic interests in Naturgy.

Taqa has acknowledged that no agreements have been reached with CriteriaCaixa or the two funds at this point. The terms and likelihood of any potential operation are still uncertain. Taqa has also confirmed that there have been no approaches with Naturgy regarding their involvement.

Taqa is a prominent energy corporation that significantly surpasses Naturgy in terms of market value.

Taqa is a global energy company with a market value of €91,480 million, making it the fourteenth most valuable energy company in the world. It is nearly four times more valuable than Naturgy in terms of stock market price. In 2023, Taqa reported sales reaching €13.2 billion and profits of approximately €4.25 billion. The company is publicly listed in the United Arab Emirates and has investments in various assets across 10 different countries. It has energy plants and interests in countries such as Ghana, India, Morocco, Saudi Arabia, Oman, and the United States. Additionally, Taqa’s oil and gas division operates in Canada, Iraq, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom.

Moncloa is taking steps to safeguard the security of key Spanish companies such as Naturgy, ensuring that foreign investors do not compromise their operations. Concerns have arisen over the potential involvement of Emirati company Taqa in Naturgy, prompting the government to propose several solutions. These include finding other investors with transparent and preferably Spanish capital to join Naturgy, having the state participate in the company similar to what was done with Telefónica, and implementing requirements such as maintaining investments and job opportunities, as was done with Más Movil and Orange.

The first option, involving other investors, was explained by first vice president María Jesús Montero. She emphasized the importance of conducting such an operation in compliance with competition rules applicable to all Member States. Montero stated that the objective is to have additional investors join Naturgy.

Economy Minister Carlos Body has presented the other two options from Washington, assuring that Spain will protect its strategic interests by utilizing regulatory instruments. Body highlighted that in some cases, state involvement is necessary, as seen with Telefónica. He also mentioned the possibility of imposing requirements, such as job retention and investment maintenance within Spain, similar to the conditions imposed during the merger of Orange and MásMóvil. These frameworks will guide the government’s actions going forward.

The government has the necessary channels and instruments to analyze Taqa’s proposal once it becomes official. They are determined to protect Spain’s strategic interests in Naturgy. While awaiting the formal proposal from the Abu Dhabi-listed company, the government remains prepared to take action.

The government’s stance is crucial in determining whether Taqa’s entry into Naturgy will be approved. Alongside the company’s main shareholder, CriteriaCaixa, government approval is necessary in the event of a potential takeover bid. As per Spanish legislation, Taqa would be required to present a takeover bid to acquire the entire capital of Naturgy if its stake exceeds the maximum limit of 30%. It is now up to the government to grant approval.

The potential reorganization of Naturgy’s capital has generated speculation, which was confirmed by the National Securities Market Commission (CNMV) on Wednesday. Taqa has been in talks with CriteriaCaixa regarding a possible cooperation agreement with Naturgy. Additionally, Taqa is in discussions to purchase shares from two other funds, CVC and GIP, which hold significant stakes in the energy company.

Prices have provided some relief for consumers in the eurozone in 2024. In March, inflation moderated for the third consecutive month to 2.4% in the eurozone, according to data from Eurostat. However, Spain’s inflation rate diverged from the eurozone average due to the end of the reduction in VAT on electricity. In Spain, inflation rose to 3.3% in March, moving further away from the European average.

The CPI variation rate in the eurozone fell by two tenths in March compared to February, equaling the lowest rate since July 2021. In the European Union as a whole, average inflation also moderated by two tenths to an interannual rate of 2.6%, the best figure in over two and a half years. These figures confirm the decrease in prices compared to a year ago when inflation rates were much higher.

On the other hand, Spain experienced a four-tenths increase in inflation in March, mainly due to the rise in VAT on electricity. This increase made electricity more expensive after almost three years of reduced rates to alleviate the impact of the crisis on households. When excluding the impact of energy and food, alcohol and tobacco prices, Spain’s inflation rate moderated to 3.1% in March, slightly above the eurozone average of 2.9%.

Despite the recent acceleration in inflation, Spain’s inflation rate remains below the level at the beginning of the year. In January, the CPI recorded an annual variation rate of 3.5%, after a VAT increase on electricity to 10%. The inflation rate in Spain has been above 3% since September, except for February when it was 2.9%.

The CPI for food decreased in Spain and the eurozone as a whole. At the national level, the inflation rate for food reached its lowest figure since November 2021, while the European average stood at 1.8% in the eurozone and 1.2% in the EU as a whole.

Spain had the highest inflation rate among large EU economies in March, while France, Germany, and Italy experienced lower CPI variation rates. Lithuania, Finland, and Denmark had the lowest inflation rates, while Romania and Croatia had rates above 4.5%.

Most European countries are moving towards the ECB’s 2% inflation target, and the central bank is maintaining interest rates at their highest level in order to control price increases. The IMF has warned that geopolitical conflicts could disrupt price containment and delay interest rate cuts, potentially impacting economic growth.

The unprecedented pandemic and subsequent inflation crisis have severely impacted the financial situation of governments worldwide. The sharp increase in public spending to address these shocks has resulted in soaring deficits and a significant accumulation of debt that has yet to return to pre-2019 levels. Spain, for instance, is projected to exceed the limits imposed by European fiscal rules in terms of both deficit and debt this year. However, among the large euro economies, Spain is positioned as the second-best starting point for recovery in 2024 and 2025, as highlighted by the latest fiscal projections published by the IMF.

According to the IMF fiscal monitor, Spain’s deficit is expected to reach 3.1% of GDP in 2024 and gradually decrease to 3% in 2025. As for public debt, it is projected to stand at 106.3% of GDP this year and decline to 104.9% the following year. Nevertheless, without fiscal adjustments, the debt and deficit will stabilize at high levels in the medium term.

Similar challenges plague most advanced economies. France and Italy, among the major euro economies, have worse short and medium-term expectations than Spain. France is predicted to have a public deficit of 4.9% in 2024 and the following year, nearly two percentage points higher than Spain’s forecast. Italy’s deficit is estimated to reach 4.6% of GDP in 2024 and then decrease to 3.2% in 2025.

Germany stands as an exception in the European top 4, known for its fiscal discipline. Although Germany faces stagnation this year, the IMF projects a deficit of 2.1% that will gradually reduce to 0.5% by the end of the decade.

Among major Western economies outside Europe, examples of significant fiscal imbalances can be found. The United Kingdom is projected to have a deficit of 4.6% in 2024, with no expectation of falling below 3.4% in the medium term. In the United States, the fiscal imbalance is forecasted to remain above 6% throughout the decade without adjustments.

In terms of debt, the IMF projects that Spain’s national liabilities will reach 106.3% of GDP in 2024. Although lower than France (111.6%) and Italy (139.2%), this figure exceeds the average for the euro zone (88.7%) and Germany (63.7%). Major global powers like the United States (123.3%), the United Kingdom (104.3%), and Canada (104.7%) also face high levels of debt. The same is true for China (88.6%) and India (82.5%).

A debt equivalent to world GDP

Given this scenario, the IMF emphasizes the need for budget adjustments in most economies globally. However, this may prove challenging as many countries are experiencing or will soon hold elections, typically accompanied by increased public spending. Spain, for instance, is urged by the IMF to implement a fiscal adjustment plan between 2024 and 2028, amounting to a total of 44 billion euros or approximately 9 billion annually.

On a global scale, the IMF warns that if no action is taken, global public debt will continue to grow, approaching 100% of global GDP by the end of the decade. In 2019, global liabilities reached 84.2% of GDP, but the pandemic-induced public spending escalated the ratio to 99.4% in 2020. Although it has since decreased to 93.8%, IMF projections indicate a rise in the coming months.

The confirmation by the Ministry for the Ecological Transition that it has no intention of raising or, directly, eliminating the cap that limits investment in electricity networks to 0.19% of GDP has led companies in the sector to warn this Wednesday of the damage that this position can cause on economic development in Spain. The association that brings together companies in the sector, AELEC, estimates that currently data centers, industry and storage facilities are waiting for the Government to guarantee connection to the distribution network to be able to supply up to 6,000 megawatts of electricity, between 15 and 20% of national demand that has not been taken into account. Its president, Marina Serrano, warns that not allowing more investment “limits economic growth” and entails “a risk of flight” of investments to other European countries that, unlike in Spain, “not only do they not impose restrictions on investment , but they make efforts to configure a favorable framework”.

“From Europe they show us the path and we cannot waste this opportunity from Spain, since by not facing the development of distribution networks we harm the consumer by not allowing them to benefit from the reduction in future costs that the electrification of energy entails,” Serrano stated in a statement released by the AELEC.

This statement by the electricity companies comes two days after on Monday the Secretary of State for Energy, Sara Aagesen, stated that the Ministry led by Teresa Ribera does not have in mind raising the limit on investment in electrical networks, which For more than ten years, it has been established that it cannot exceed 0.13% of GDP in transportation networks – from the generator to the substation – and 0.065% in distribution networks – from the substation to the final consumer.. Together, they add up to around 2.6 billion euros.. “Raising the limit means increasing tolls for the consumer,” he said about a demand that the electricity sector has been making for a long time and to which the PP also joins, whose regional governments denounce that it is one more obstacle to being able to welcome in their territory new industrial projects and data centers because they are not guaranteed the electricity supply in large quantities that these activities require.

The AELEC emphasizes that “the lack of development of distribution networks prevents the industrial consumer from benefiting from the reduction in electricity costs” and rejects the Ecological Transition argument that raising the cap would make the bill more expensive via tolls.. “On the contrary,” says Serrano this Wednesday. “It's like highways, the more cars circulate, the lower the tolls will have to be,” he stated and recalled that Spain has European funds to promote more investments in networks “without having to increase the consumer's electricity bill.” “. According to Aagesen said on Monday, the Government has an allocation of 1 billion European funds.

Regarding the effects of not increasing the amount to expand electricity distribution networks – that is, those that take it from a substation to the final consumer -, the electricity sector observes that it can mean that industrial and data center projects that are being considered and settle in Spain go to other European countries “attracted by strong investment plans in networks”. Remember that countries like France and Germany are estimating “tripling” it until 2030 and that the recently approved reform of the electricity market provides for “anticipated investments”, more proactive about the future, instead of the “traditional approach” system that the Government would be applying.

“If the development projects for electrical distribution networks are not addressed right now, not only is this creating a risk in meeting climate objectives, but it is also limiting the economic growth of our country and losing the opportunity that offers decarbonization,” Serrano pointed out, about a situation that “entails a risk of flight of investments to other countries where obtaining access to the network is easier,” in addition to “weighing down an entire industrial value chain.” .

Specific and 'secret' modification of the network

Also regarding access to electricity distribution networks, the Council of Ministers approved this Tuesday a “punctual” and “urgent” update of the current planning, until 2027, to incorporate, with the right to financing, 73 actions that were not planned and that the Government considers that it is necessary to undertake. This figure represents nine more than the 64 initially planned in the draft presented by Ribera last December, which caused widespread complaints in the communities for having left out many others that they consider essential.. These nine additional ones contrast with the more than a hundred requests that the communities announced that they would submit during the subsequent public consultation process.. For example, the Community of Madrid announced that 80 projects had been left out in a draft that it criticized had only included one action in Algete that did not entail additional financing.

The agreement ratified by the Council of Ministers increases the net investment from 321 million to 489 million to finance the 73 actions, including the nine additional ones that do not translate in their entirety into new access to the electrical network to meet “new demands”. To this end, the 1 17 planned in the initial draft are maintained – among them, in areas of Algeciras and Huelva, related to the Andalusian Hydrogen Valley or in the Sagunto area, in relation to the Volkswagen electric battery factory – and They add another six, bringing them to a total of 23.

The urgent modification of the network planning also includes nine accesses – the seven in the draft and another five added later – for storage such as hydraulic pumping and renewable generation, in just transition nodes in four of them; three to cover operating demands – two planned plus one additional – and 38 to meet needs that arise in the execution of current planning, such as upgrades of lines and substations,

However, incomprehensibly it has not yet revealed the location of those nine actions.. Contrary to what is usual, the agreement of the Council of Ministers was not followed by information with the details of new accesses to the network that will be financed by 2026, which would be announced with its publication in the BOE. Also contrary to what is usually more common, a day later, the Official State Gazette still has not published the agreement of the Council of Ministers, without the autonomous governments knowing whether they have 'gained' any access to the electricity distribution network in their territories.

Prices have returned to the path of moderation in February after the rebound in the January slope. According to provisional data released this Thursday by the National Institute of Statistics (INE), inflation has slowed in the second month of the year to an interannual rate of 2.8%, the lowest in six months. The relief has been mainly due to the reduction in the electricity bill, which has fallen to its lowest level in three years. The price of food has also stabilized, compared to the increase it suffered a year ago.

Inflation has moderated six tenths with respect to the interannual rate of 3.4% recorded in January, falling below the 3% barrier for the first time in half a year.. The start of 2024 brought with it an acceleration in the pace of price increases, driven especially by the increase in VAT on electricity to 10% after the partial extension of anti-crisis measures. This increase in the annual variation rate of the CPI interrupted the downward trend undertaken in the last months of 2023, which closed December at 3.1%. If confirmed, February's inflation figure will be the lowest since August, when the indicator stood at 2.6%, immersed in a full rebound. In the last month alone, prices have increased by 0.3% in monthly terms compared to January levels.

The slowdown in inflation in February – which does not mean that prices have fallen across the board, but rather that their rate of rise has slowed down – has been fundamentally due to the lowering of electricity prices, which closed the month below 43 euros per MWh. This figure, which represents the lowest average monthly price since February 2021, is very far from the 76.72 euros that were paid per MWh a year ago. The INE highlights that the lowering of electricity prices compared to 2022 contrasts with the increase in prices registered a year earlier. The decrease in the price in the last month has brought forward the increase in VAT on electricity to 21% to March. The tax credit enjoyed by electricity will decline sooner than expected as the average price in February does not exceed 45 euros per MWh.

In addition, the INE also attributes the decline in inflation to the stability in food prices, whose particular rise peaked precisely in February 2023, reaching an interannual rate of 16.6%.. Without knowing the data for the last month, in January the CPI for these essential products recorded an interannual variation rate of 7.4%, one tenth above that registered in December and the second lowest figure since the beginning of 2022.

On the other hand, the price of fuel has increased compared to February 2023, compared to the decrease experienced in the previous year.. According to the European Union Petroleum Bulletin, fuel prices have risen for six consecutive weeks. In the last week alone, gasoline and diesel have become more expensive respectively by 0.44% and 0.19%, until a liter of super 95 is paid for 1,605 euros at the pump and for diesel, 1,561 euros.

The underlying continues to decline

By discounting the price of energy and unprocessed food from the calculation due to their high volatility, underlying inflation has continued the downward path that began in February 2023. Specifically, the indicator has moderated two tenths to an interannual rate of 3.4%, six tenths above the general index. The Minister of Economy, Carlos Body, has highlighted that underlying inflation is at its lowest level in two years, which in his opinion “is allowing households to recover purchasing power and companies to regain competitiveness.” “We therefore make price moderation compatible with the maintenance of the social shield and support for the most needy homes and families,” he added.

“There are enough uncertainties about energy prices, about raw material prices and some other things that force us to be cautious,” said the general secretary of CCOO, Unai Sordo, who, despite recognizing that the moderation of prices It is “good news”, he has warned that we will have to wait to see if inflation goes towards its “definitive containment” or if it registers “peaks” again.

With the drop in February, the indicator is approaching the 2% objective to which the European Central Bank (ECB) intends to return inflation. The body chaired by Christine Lagarde is closely monitoring the evolution of prices, ahead of its meeting next Thursday. In the latest appointments, the monetary authority has kept rates unchanged at 4.5% after a year of increases. Lagarde herself has pointed out that it is “likely” that the first relief in access to financing will arrive in the summer, so for the moment no rate cuts are expected.

In Spain there are 964,787 people who currently benefit in some way from the minimum vital income (IMV), the subsistence income that the Government introduced in 2020 to guarantee a minimum income to the most vulnerable households.. This population is divided into almost 400,000 homes (376,073), the majority with the presence of minors and a third of them are located in Andalusia.. However, the aid does not reach, by any means, all the households it could theoretically reach: around 58% do not even ask for it.. The benefit, which does not require having contributed in order to receive it, represents a cost to the public coffers of 946 million euros per month.

This is clear from the new statistics on this benefit presented this Thursday by the Ministry of Inclusion, Social Security and Migration. Until now, the Government only gave the number of people who had received this benefit at some point, a figure that did not really reflect with true precision how many people are currently registered, which has sparked multiple criticisms of the Executive.

With the new statistics released this Thursday, it can be seen how, of the 2.3 million people who have received aid at some point since it was launched in 2020, 27% no longer receive it.. Social Security sources believe that to a large extent these are people who have improved their income, probably by finding employment and who, therefore, no longer meet the requirements to be able to access aid.

On average, registered households receive an income of 500 euros per month in 12 annual payments, which translates into 167 euros per person. Of course, this calculation also includes people who only receive the supplement for child support, a subsidy that is within the universe of the IMV, but is not as substantial as the minimum income per se.. Furthermore, it is important to remember that the minimum vital income is granted to the cohabitation unit and guarantees a level of income that varies depending on the composition of the households.. The aid ranges from 604 euros per month for a household made up of a single adult and the most extreme case, that of a family made up of two adults and three or more dependent minors, which can receive up to 1,595 euros.. The previous income available to these households is deducted from the minimum vital income when calculating the amount of the benefit.

If we also count the households that receive only the child support supplement, the number of families in the IMV universe rises to 557,405. These households can be divided into three groups of very similar proportions.. The first is made up of 181,075 households that do not receive child protection aid, a supplement that reinforces income based on the number of minor children.. Then, there is a second group of 194,998 families that receive the IMV with assistance for children and a third group of 181,332 that only receives the complement.

The majority of potential beneficiaries do not charge it

The great weak point of the minimum vital income is the low coverage rates it has if we think about the potential beneficiaries.. Although the Government does not comment on an updated figure of how many people could theoretically qualify for aid, Social Security sources accept Airef's calculations as good, which put 58% of the households that requested it with respect to the possible universe.

Coverage rates are especially low in households without children, where more than 70% of potential beneficiaries do not claim aid. This non-request problem, known as non take-up in technical jargon, is common in this type of service and has various reasons.

The reasons why aid is not requested are varied and range from errors when defining the potential beneficiaries, to the lack of incentives to request aid among vulnerable households with higher income or the overlap with other minimum incomes such as the case of the autonomous. From Social Security they point out that “an important part of the cases” of lack of coverage are due to the few economic incentives to request help.. “Households with income close to the threshold or in a situation of temporary poverty may lack economic motivation to apply for the benefit, given that the increase in income would be limited and would not exceed the perceived cost and effort of the application process,” they point out.

Homes with children

At a sociodemographic level, two out of every three holders of the minimum vital income are women, while 82% are people of Spanish nationality.. In addition, two thirds of households include minors. The average age of those who have requested aid is around 45 years old, but the beneficiaries are much younger: 41% of them are minors, which explains why the recipients—unlike the holders—are, on average, 28 years old. .

At the territorial level, the autonomous community with the most weight in the minimum vital income is Andalusia, where 32.6% of the families that receive the aid are registered.. After Andalusia appear the Valencian Community (10.5%), Catalonia (10.3%), Madrid (8%) or Murcia (5%). The other side of the coin are communities like La Rioja, Cantabria, Navarra or the Balearic Islands, which barely contribute 1% each. In this sense, it is important to highlight that the autonomous minimum income policy of each community has a lot of influence here.

Spain is the sixth country in the European Union (EU) with the smallest difference between what women and men earn per hour in full-time jobs. Note, however, the second worst data in part-time jobs. The latest Eurostat figures put the gender pay gap in Spain at 8.7% in 2022 (13% on the EU average), which shoots up to 18.7% in the case of part-time jobs. However, the figures from the European statistical office ignore the structural inequalities of the labor market, which are what make this difference much wider.

“The wage gap is a consequence of many other labor gaps,” the confederal secretary of Women, Equality and Working Conditions of CC OO explains to 20minutos.. According to Vidal, it is “wrong” to calculate the difference in salaries per hour worked, since the data managed by the union reflects that, per year, they earn 18.6% less. “We know that if women worked the same intensity of hours that men work, the gap would decrease to 5%,” she says.

The problem, according to the union representative insists, is that the Spanish gap is based on “structural discriminations”, fueled mainly by the burden of care, which still falls on the shoulders of women. “Let's go with the care backpack to work. And we cannot do it with the same intensity, nor with the same time.. Comparing a woman on the same day, the only thing that shows is that women sometimes earn less because we are in sectors where less is paid.. But what is not included in this comparison are the reductions in working hours, the leaves of absence or the lower salary supplements that they charge,” he explains.

In fact, the difference becomes more acute when looking at the figures for part-time jobs, which are 75% made up of women.. Spain is, only behind Croatia (21.5%), the second EU country with the highest hourly wage gap for part-time work: 18.7%. Here is something that, according to Vidal, must also be taken into account, and that is that nine out of ten part-time workers have that day voluntarily.. That is, they would like to work full time, but they don't because they have to take care of. “We have made it clear to the Government that, although it is true that the wage gap has decreased a lot in the last 15 years, now it is going to begin to decrease much less because it already responds to structural causes, which must be managed with structural proposals,” Add.

No gap before age 25

The Eurostat statistics also provide another piece of information that corroborates the discrimination suffered by workers due to maternity and care.. Among those under 25 years of age, the wage gap plummets, and in Spain it is even negative. That is, they earn more than them (3.8% more). “These are factors that a priori can explain it, the fact that women train more than men and the fact that we know that discrimination against women begins to increase when the first child is born,” Nacho Conde assures this newspaper. , the deputy director of the Foundation for Applied Economics Studies (FEDEA).

“When we are not mothers, we have no responsibilities to care for anyone, and the gap disappears. That is the key to saying that there are structural differences that have to do with care,” highlights Vidal, from CC OO.. According to him, these data can be explained with the active population figures.. From 26 to 49 years old, 87% of men without children have a job or are looking for work, a proportion that shoots up to 91% when they have their first child.. However, the opposite happens in the case of women: when they do not have children, they are 77% active, a percentage that drops to 72% after their first child.

The Euribor has taken a break from the decline that began in November of last year and rose again in February to stand at 3.67% on average for the month. Of course, the rise in the indicator with which practically all variable rate mortgages in Spain are reviewed is rather symbolic.. This is an increase of just six hundredths that will barely have an impact on the monthly payment of the loans.

Variable mortgages that only have an annual review and must do so with the February Euribor will suffer a maximum fee increase of 1.4%. This increase, applied to a typical loan of 150,000 euros to be paid in 25 years with a differential over the Euribor of one point, would imply a fee of 848 euros per month (just 11 euros increase). In the case of a loan with the same characteristics, but of 300,000 euros, we would be talking about 23 euros more.

On the other hand, families who review their loan payment every six months will benefit from reductions in their monthly payment that can reach 4%.. For a mortgage like the one mentioned above, the payment relief would be around 35 euros in the case of loans of 150,000 euros.

The reason why mortgages that are updated once a year will go up and semi-annual ones will go down is as simple as the fact that the Euribor that was recorded at this time last year (3.534%) was lower than the current one.. While the same index in August 2023 (4.073%) was higher than the 3.67% at which February closed.

The interruption in the decline of the Euribor is due to overly optimistic expectations regarding the first cuts in official interest rates. Money markets were betting that the European Central Bank (ECB) would start lowering rates earlier, but it seems that they are now beginning to assume that this moment will come later. Why is this important? In the end, the Euribor reflects the interest rate at which banks lend to each other, which in turn is determined by the rates that the ECB demands from credit institutions for lending them money.

What happens is that commercial banks do not wait for the ECB to decide. They anticipate your movements and adapt the cost of the loans they grant to your expectations. That is why the Euribor has fallen faster than the ECB's official interest rates, which have remained in a range between 4 and 4.5% since September last year.. That is, at historical highs.

In any case, the ECB has given signs that the first cuts in interest rates could come well into spring.. Therefore, the Euribor is expected to resume its decline in the coming months.. The consensus of Funcas analysts predicts that the index will stand at 3.25% by the end of 2024. Consequently, mortgage payments should continue to decline little by little as the year progresses.

“The Euribor is a volatile indicator and that it rises or falls a little each month is to be expected. What we do not expect is that it will once again be above the 4% barrier,” says Simone Colombelli, director of Mortgages at the mortgage comparator and advisor iAhorro.. “Although the Euribor has risen slightly, if we look at its long-term evolution, we are still in a moment of stability within the decline that this indicator is expected to register,” he adds.. “The market was overly optimistic when it expected a quick drop in ECB rates and that is why the Euribor reached very close to 3.5%,” says Miquel Riera, an analyst at HelpMyCash.