Experts have been warning for weeks of a meteorological phenomenon that is about to reach Spain. This is El Niño, which can raise temperatures across the planet in ways never seen before. As explained by the State Meteorological Agency (Aemet), the Earth could increase its temperature to the critical threshold (1.5 degrees above the pre-industrial level) this summer. The equatorial region of the largest ocean on Earth is already in a transition period.

And it is that, during the last three years, the equatorial waters of the Pacific Ocean have registered temperature values lower than normal, an oceanic pattern known as La Niña, but this 2023 the situation will change. While La Niña deflates between February and May, El Niño will emerge starting in the summer months, according to the NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)..

The World Meteorological Organization, @WMO (WMO in Spanish), has published a recent press release on the probability that the El Niño phenomenon will be established (https://t.co/tKKiZnrTnq), which we summarize and comment on in this thread🧵

– AEMET (@AEMET_Esp) May 3, 2023

The Aemet once again insists on the imminent arrival of this phenomenon through a press release published by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). According to the document, the probability of establishing an El Niño episode between May and July is close to 60%, and this percentage increases to 70-80% for the period from July to September..

What will happen in Spain

“We have just experienced the eight warmest years on record, despite the fact that, during the last three years, the La Niña episode has exerted a cooling effect that has temporarily slowed the increase in global temperature,” detail. “Most likely, the onset of an El Niño episode will trigger a new uptick in global warming and increase the chances of breaking temperature records,” says WMO Secretary-General Professor Petteri Taalas..

All in all, scientists call this cyclical El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) pattern. Thus, they point out that “the effect on global temperatures usually manifests itself the year after the establishment of this phenomenon, so its consequences will probably be more noticeable in 2024”.

Everything points to even more severe periods of heat, drought or precipitation in different parts of the world. The Aemet maintains that it does not know what effect it will have in Spain. “It is complicated to know the effects, both in temperature, although globally it is expected that this phenomenon will result in higher temperatures, and in precipitation, as there are many other factors, apart from the variability of the system itself, which may influence,” they clarify.

The PSOE would win the regional elections in Asturias on May 28 by obtaining 36.7% of the votes. It would be followed by the PP, which would achieve 27.3% of the vote, and the third political force in the Asturian parliament would be Vox with 9.1% of the vote, according to the macro-survey published this Thursday by the Center for Sociological Research (CIS)..

The CIS has not estimated seats in this study as a result of the sample size (500 interviews) and the electoral constituencies, so there is no distribution of seats in the General Meeting of the Principality.

The CIS also predicts that the fourth political force in the Principality would be Podemos with 8% of the votes; fifth force Call for Asturias with 6.8%, Foro Asturias with the support of 4.5% and Ciudadanos would get the support of 3.7%. The study maintains that 22.3 percent of the Asturian respondents have not yet decided on the vote. Abstention is 1.7% and people who have not wanted to answer amount to 3.3%.

Leader Assessments

The current president of the Principality of Asturias and PSOE candidate for re-election in the upcoming regional elections on May 28, Adrián Barbón, is the most valued political leader in Asturias and the only one whose work is approved by the citizens..

In this way, the CIS survey determines that the average grade that Asturians give Barbón is 5.46, above the PP candidate, Diego Canga, who obtains a 4.60 grade; Covadonga Tomé, candidate for Podemos, who scores 4.48; followed by the candidate for Call for Asturias (IU-Más País), Ovidio Zapico, with 4.33; the candidate from Foro Asturias, Adrián Pumares, who has a 4.27; the Ciudadanos candidate, Manuel Iñarra, with 3.85; and the Vox candidate, Carolina López, with 3.65.

The PP would win the regional elections in La Rioja on May 28, with 39.2 percent of the votes, achieving between 14 and 15 deputies -currently it has 12-, while the PSOE would obtain 36 percent of the support, and the number of parliamentarians would drop, from 15 that it now has to the 13-14 that the survey published this Thursday by the Center for Sociological Research (CIS) gives it.

However, neither of the two formations achieves a majority, which in the La Rioja Parliament is set at 17 seats. To do this, they must seek support from the rest of the forces that attend the elections.

Specifically, the survey gives Podemos-IU 9.9 percent of the votes, which would give it between 2 and 4 parliamentarians, for the two they currently have, when they competed under the brand 'Unidas Podemos'.

Vox would enter the La Rioja Chamber for the first time, obtaining 5.6 percent of the support, with which they would achieve between 1 and 2 deputies.

Against Ciudadanos he would keep 2.5 percent of the votes, staying out of Parliament, and thus losing the four deputies they obtained in 2019.

The PR+España Vaciada, according to the survey, would obtain 3.6 percent of the votes, which means that it does not add either to enter the Hemicycle, while 1.6 percent would achieve the rest of the formations.

The President of the Region of Murcia, Fernando López Miras, has sent a letter to the President of the Government, Pedro Sánchez, requesting the convening, “urgently”, of a Conference of Presidents to address “the problem of water” that shakes a good part of the autonomous communities of the country and that already affects both the agricultural sector and human consumption.

The situation of the almond plantations in the Region of Murcia that are at the limit or the restrictions that the inhabitants of various towns in Andalusia are suffering are worth as a sample button.. “Water is a matter of State”, as remarked by López Miras. “We are in an exceptional situation that cannot be resolved with unilateral, electoral decisions and with smokescreens.”

The objective of the letter sent from the Palacio de San Esteban to the Moncloa is to get Sánchez to convene all the regional presidents, to address, “jointly”, possible solutions to a period of drought that lasts for months and that is leaving the reserves of the Spanish swamps low.

“We are in a situation that right now is exceptional, but of course, the water deficit in Spain and the need that exists at this time where Spaniards do not have the right to access water under the same conditions: it is a structural problem in our country”, as stressed by the head of the Murcian Executive.

“Sánchez is patching up an exceptional situation that requires all of us regional presidents to sit down to talk about water”. So López Miras has sent a letter to the President of the Government, with the aim of demanding in the Conference of Presidents “the need” to enable infrastructure, interconnect basins and transfers, as well as promote a National Water Plan “as soon as possible”. .

EL ESPAÑOL has accessed the letter from López Miras to Sánchez, where it begins by exposing the water deficit that the Region of Murcia, Andalusia and the Valencian Community have historically suffered:

“As you know, the Region of Murcia and the entire Spanish Levante suffer from a structural water deficit that makes it necessary to adopt policies that provide an effective response to this problem. A situation that has been especially aggravated in recent months by the extreme drought that affects the whole of Spain, with serious consequences at an economic, social and environmental level, and that forces all administrations to unite our efforts to be able to face it. “.

In the letter, he also alerted Moncloa that concern is spreading in the agricultural and livestock sectors, which are generators of employment in the labor market, and therefore, contribute to the country's economy.

“In recent years and on repeated occasions, I have expressed my deep concern about this matter, as well as my total predisposition to be able to hold a meeting with you to advance a definitive solution to the water problem in the Region of Murcia, which requires for This is a great national agreement that puts an end to disputes over an essential resource that belongs to all Spaniards. Some meeting proposals that, unfortunately, have never received a response from you, but for the Government of the Region of Murcia they are still fully valid, the same as from day one”.

“This is not the time for sterile confrontations or reproaches, but rather to act without delay. The worrying situation that our farmers and the vast majority of agricultural and livestock farms in Spain are experiencing, due to the drought, requires a heightened vision and the sum of forces instead of exacerbating the differences”.

López Miras appeals in his letter to the “constitutional principles of equality and solidarity” between all territories and citizens so that a Conference of Presidents is urgently convened, to address the situation of drought that is beginning to leave worrying patterns, such as the Ebro river with the lowest water levels of the last three decades.

“As representatives of our citizens, we are obliged to find a definitive solution to one of the greatest factors of territorial inequality in our country today, which is access to water for all Spaniards under the same conditions.. For all these reasons, I raise the urgent need to convene a Conference of Autonomous Presidents to address without delay, and in a joint, equitable and fair manner, the need to lay the foundations of a National Water Pact and a National Hydrological Plan”.

“The current situation of lack of water that Spain is going through requires immediate responses, but it is also unavoidable that the administrations be able to provide a global solution to a problem that, in basins such as the Segura, is already structural, and could very soon be also in the rest of Spain. That is why, jointly, with dialogue and agreement, we must move towards that definitive solution to the water needs in our country, agreeing on a distribution that guarantees this resource to all Spaniards”.