70% of the Spanish economy will be exposed to the risk of droughts and fires in less than 30 years

One day before the COP28 Summit held by the United Nations on Climate Change in Dubai begins, the rating agency Standard & Poor's has put figures on the consequences that this will have on the economy in the medium term. According to their calculations, if global warming does not remain well below the 2 degrees Celsius committed in the Paris Agreement for the year 2050, the world economy will suffer losses of 4.4% annually due to the risks posed by changing the temperature of the world at these levels that experts consider extreme. In fact, according to the latest report published by the UN, the world is already late in its commitments, since it understands that even if it meets the reduction of emissions, the temperature will rise between 2.5 and 2.9 degrees at some point this year. century and the repercussions will be incalculable.

Looking back, the natural tragedies that occurred between 1992 and 2022 have caused an average loss of between 5% and 7% per year in global growth, according to calculations by Swiss Re, one of the largest insurers in the world.. “By 2030, if emissions are not sufficiently mitigated, the number of natural disasters could be 40% than in 2015, with about 250 events per year,” notes S&P, echoing the latest UN report on natural disasters of the year. past. And this will also mean that half of the population will reside in areas “highly vulnerable” to climate change by the year 2050, double that of today.

This situation, translated into countries and specific figures, means that Europe will be the least affected region in the world, although it will not be immune to climate change.. South Asia, on the other hand, is where the worst sufferers are found.. S&P estimates that by 2020 these adverse phenomena will already affect more than 8% of its GDP, in 2050 it will be 12% and by 2090 the forecast is that it could subtract up to just over 14%.. In the European case, the impact on the economy does not exceed 2% in any scenario.. This is followed by North America, Latin America and the Caribbean, Southeast Asia and the Pacific area, while the worst scenario will fall on the poorest regions such as sub-Saharan Africa and North Africa.

In Europe there are two common risks that would affect the entire population in general: extreme heat and possible flooding resulting from abundant rain or storms.. In addition to these two shared phenomena, in the specific case of Spain the risk of extreme drought and fires will be especially relevant to which, according to S&P calculations, close to 70% of the national economy will be exposed.. Above Spain are neighbors on the Mediterranean Sea such as Greece, mainly, where the risk of drought would affect 95% of its GDP, although the possibility of increasing fires is more limited; while in Portugal 85% of its economy would be exposed to the possible lack of water and more than 70% to forest fires.

September, a black month

Recently, Mapfre, the country's largest insurer, acknowledged that during two months, from mid-September to mid-November, it had to deal with 75,000 claims caused by weather phenomena such as DANA or storms that occurred between the 14th and the 20th. September, three more storms in October and two at the beginning of November. In total, the economic impact for Mapfre was 35 million euros, mainly due to damage caused to homes and, above all, in the Community of Madrid, where 23,000 accidents have been recorded.

In recent months, the insurance sector has debated the need to expand the coverage of the Insurance Compensation Consortium, a public body dependent on the Ministry of Economy, which is a unique case in Europe.. The Consortium is funded annually with money from policyholders to reduce the specific impact on each company of this type of natural catastrophes and to mutualize, in some way, the risks.. It is estimated that in recent years the Consortium has assumed approximately 30% of the economic impact of natural catastrophes that occur in Spain compared to the 70% that insurance companies have covered..