Carlos Body, the continuity of Calviño and Escrivá to face the slowdown of the economy and the new fiscal rules

After weeks of waiting, the President of the Government, Pedro Sánchez, revealed this Friday who will occupy the Ministry of Economy after the departure of Nadia Calviño, who will direct the European Investment Bank (EIB).. This is Carlos Corpus, a senior state economist and close collaborator of the former first vice president, who will have to face the return of European fiscal rules and confront Sumar at a time when a slowdown in the European economy is expected and, therefore, of the Spanish economy.

The new holder of the Economics portfolio joined the Corps of State Economist Technicians in 2008, after completing a degree in Economics at the University of Extremadura, completing a master's degree in the same field at the London School of Economics and a doctorate in the Autonomous University of Madrid. In his first years in the Government, he was part of the Ministry of Economy in the last cabinet of José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, with Pedro Solbes at the helm, and in the first of Mariano Rajoy, when Luis de Guindos was the economic head.. In those years he was an economic analyst in the General Directorate of Economic Analysis and International Economy and also held a similar position in the General Directorate of Economic and Financial Affairs of the European Commission during the toughest years of the economic crisis in the last decade.

Subsequently, he coincided with José Luis Escrivá – who lost powers in the formation of the Government after losing Social Security, but now gains Public Service – in the Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIREF) when the minister directed it.. In this institution he was deputy director general of Public Debt and, later, director of the Economic Analysis Division. In recent years, he served as general director of Macroeconomic Analysis of the Ministry of Economic Affairs and, since August 2021, he was secretary general of the Treasury and International Financing.

In addition, he has served as Calviño's “sherpa” at the European level.. As EFE recalls, the “sherpas” are the senior government officials of each country who prepare the ground for the agreements that are later concluded by the ministers or presidents.. According to the aforementioned agency, Corpus has been the former vice president's right-hand man in the negotiations prior to the meetings of the European Council of Economic Affairs, in the assemblies of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) or in the G20 meetings that bring together the large economies. of the world.

Likewise, it played an important role in one of the successes of the Spanish presidency of the Council of the European Union: the reform of fiscal rules.. It was just over a week ago when the 27 Member States of the European Union reached a political agreement for the reform of fiscal rules, the final text of which must now be developed to come into force in 2024 “with effects on 2025 budget planning “. Countries must present their own four-year fiscal plans – with the possibility of extending it to seven – and an average annual effective reduction of 1 percentage point in the debt ratio is set for countries with a debt greater than 90% – such as the case of Spain – and a structural deficit fiscal margin of 1.5% of GDP, below 3% “in the preventive arm.”

Corps must continue with the orthodoxy set by its predecessor, who endorsed the mantra of “fiscal responsibility, social justice and structural reforms”. He will also preside over the Delegate Commission for Economic Affairs, from where the Government's economic policy is set and where he could confront Sumar, a coalition partner more inclined to expansionist public spending policies.

All of this in an international context that is beginning to get complicated.. It is true that, as announced this Friday, Spanish inflation has moderated to 3.1% in December, its lowest level since last August, and Spain is growing more than double that of its European partners, with a 2.4% increase in GDP this year. However, next year a slowdown is expected with a growth of 1.6% due to the drop in demand in the main destination countries for our exports, according to the Chamber of Commerce.