Endesa ignores in its strategic plan the extension of the 'tax' on banking and energy that the Government is already preparing
Endesa believes that, in the legislature that begins, the Government will desist from its fiscal crusade against the sector. At least, this is the base scenario on which the second Spanish electricity company has made numbers in the 2024-2026 strategic plan that the group presented to the market yesterday.. Thus, the company directed by José Bogas has ignored the Government pact between PSOE and Sumar, which agreed to perpetuate the tax on banks and energy companies sine die, a measure that, only in its two years of original validity (2022-2023), will cost it to the company around 400 million euros.
Endesa's decision lies in the suspicion, increasingly widespread in corporate circles of all kinds, that the Government cannot spend another four years in open war against the business front and, specifically, against the two sectors affected by the tax. who, in this time, have been a recurring target of criticism and accusations, with names and surnames, by the president, Pedro Sánchez, and several of his ministers.
The tax approved in Spain at the end of 2022 was a loose verse within Europe. Adopted as a “non-tax property benefit”, the rate has taxed the income and not the profits, as Brussels urged, of large financial, electrical and oil entities.. The truth is that Law 38/2022, a regulatory text that spells out the rate, set an expiration date for the extraordinary contribution to the public coffers that these sectors had to satisfy between 2023 and 2024, charged to their income from 2022 and 2023, respectively. .
Everything indicates that the Government will make changes to the tax structure. Different hypotheses are being considered in the sector, from a possible downward adjustment in the tax rate (now 1.2%), to a more profound modification that involves aligning the measure with Europe, that is, taxing profits.
Endesa, which has faced the review of its strategic plan with more than one source of uncertainty, has chosen to remove the tax from the equation for beyond 2024, that is, it does not take it into account for half of the period covered by its latest roadmap. This means that, if the Government decides to maintain the tax as it is – or opts for a model with a similar impact -, the electricity company will not only have to account for its impact in the corresponding annual accounts, it will also have to review its plan again. strategic
Among the doubts that have conditioned the latest strategic plan of the company controlled 70% by the Italian Enel, the final impact of the arbitration against Qatar Energy stands out, undoubtedly, which has resulted in an unfavorable award to Endesa that contemplates the payment of 350 million euros to the Qatari state gas company. After knowing the result of the process, Endesa, which is considering appealing, met its Board of Directors this week to debate the convenience of reviewing the dividend policy.
The company announced yesterday that it has decided to maintain the shareholder payment scheduled for 2023, of 1 euro per share, and guarantee that same remuneration for the coming years in which it will “try” to maintain a pay-out, a remuneration to the investor over profit, 70% until 2026. The figure cools the dividend forecasts of the previous plan for 2024 (1.2 euros) and 2025 (1.4 euros). With this, the company shields itself from shareholders, mainly its parent company Enel..