EY cuts its growth forecast from 0.7% to 0.2% for the fourth quarter in one month

The real-time economic model of the consulting firm EY, RealTime Tracker, which predicts how much GDP will grow based on the data that is made public, has gone from predicting a growth of 0.7% in the fourth quarter in a single month of the year to only 0.2%, although it rules out contraction.

According to their latest report, updated this Tuesday and to which EL MUNDO has had access, they predict that the Spanish economy will grow by 2.4% for the year as a whole, in line with the Government's expectations.. “GDP growth would continue to expand during the last quarter of the year. The quarterly GDP growth rates in the first quarter (0.6%), second quarter (0.4%) and third (0.3%, which the INE confirmed on October 27 and exceeded expectations) would be followed now an expansion of +0.2% in the fourth quarter, according to our RealTimeTracker. With this, the Spanish economy would maintain a positive evolution for the tenth consecutive quarter, although the trend is of a slight slowdown throughout the year,” they point out.

Its forecast coincides with that of the Funcas analyst panel but is lower than that of the AIReF -at 0.6%-. “The current estimate shows more moderate progress figures than in previous estimates. The estimated growth for the fourth quarter was around 0.7% quarterly during the second half of October and has slowed since then,” they explain.

The economic slowdown recorded since then has occurred when data relating to the manufacturing purchasing managers' index (manufacturing PMI) and other advances for October were introduced, as well as retail sales for September.. The affiliation data for October has also had an influence, which contrasts with the positive (and relevant) surprises that the EPA provided, since it “did not yet contemplate the post-September job destruction associated with the uncompensated cyclical slowdown in the hospitality sector.” for the reactivation of other sectors”.

These indicators, however, have been offset by others that have acted as a positive counterweight, such as the industrial production index for September, and in particular its components of capital goods and intermediate goods (not that of non-durable consumer goods, whose contribution was negative). “This would fit with the good development that we have been observing in the Spanish foreign sector,” they point out.. The services purchasing managers index (services PMI) and vehicle registrations in October have also contributed.