The pressure of the Euribor on the mortgaged is lessening, although it does not stop. With just over 24 hours left until the end of the month of November, everything indicates that the reference index for calculating the interests of the vast majority of variable rate mortgage loans in Spain will close the month slightly above 4% after experiencing its biggest monthly drop in more than three years. Even so, those who review their monthly payment with this last information will have to face an increase that will be close to 100 euros in the case of the average mortgage.

The Euribor has fallen in November to a monthly average of 4.027%, more than one tenth below the 4.16% in October. Although the data is provisional – in the absence of knowing what level the indicator will be at this Thursday, the last day of November – it is not expected to vary significantly, except for a major surprise.. In this way, the Euribor has broken its upward trend, which in recent months had led it to stagnate at around 4.1% with an increasingly slower growth rate.

The fall in November not only represents a change in trend in the evolution of the Euribor, but also represents its largest fall since July 2020, when the index went from -0.15% to -0.28%, still negative and affected by the economic stoppage of the pandemic. This is the second monthly decrease recorded by the Euribor so far in 2023. It already decreased in August from 4.15% to 4.07% after more than a year and a half of consecutive increases.

“With the return of summer, the trend has changed and we are returning, little by little, to a certain level of stabilization of the Euribor,” explains Simone Colombelli, mortgage director of the mortgage comparator and advisor iAhorro.. “It is likely that it will end this year around 4%, up or down, and that it will move between 3.75% and 4% throughout the first half of 2024,” predicts Miquel Riera, an analyst at HelpMyCash. “It is also not ruled out that it could fall to 3.5% in the most optimistic scenario,” he adds.

Despite the decrease, the mortgage payments that are updated with the November data will increase, since the index is higher than the 2.828% recorded a year ago. For an average loan of 150,000 euros for 30 years and with a spread of 0.99%, the update will cause the monthly bill to go from 691.35 to 790.81 euros, which will mean an average increase of 99.45 euros per month. month. In the case of a mortgage of 300,000 euros with the same conditions, the increase would reach 198.91 euros, going from 1,382.7 to 1,581.61 euros.

These increases are less than last year, but it rains in the wet, because the increases accumulate. The November review implied in 2022 an average increase of 242.37 euros for a mortgage of 150,000 euros and 484.74 euros for one of 300,000. In this way, in two years both assumptions respectively accumulate an average increase of 341.82 and 683.65 euros.. “We do not expect decreases in the mortgage payments in the short-medium term; what is more likely is that the increases in payments will be smaller than last year,” says Estefanía González, spokesperson for the mortgage advisor Kelisto.es.

At the moment the Euribor has broken with the forecasts that indicated that it would approach 4.5% throughout 2023. In fact, the daily data has dropped by 4% this Wednesday. Specifically, it stood at 3.983%, a level that is far from the annual highs recorded in September, when it reached 4.23%.. However, analysts urge caution.. “This trend is striking, but we should not give up. It is good news, that is clear, especially for those with mortgages, but it is still too early to say that the Euribor is not going to rise again. In fact, it is likely that it will,” says the mortgage director of iAhorro.

The indicator used as a reference in the majority of variable mortgages reflects the change in tone of the European Central Bank (ECB), which in October took its foot off the accelerator after ten consecutive increases in interest rates. The institution chaired by Christine Lagarde left the official rate at 4.5%, an unprecedented level since the entry into circulation of the euro. However, the monetary authority has already warned that rates will remain high for as long as necessary in order to return inflation below 2%. “While waiting for what happens at the next ECB meeting, on December 14, it seems that the markets are already discounting that there will be no future rates in the short and medium term,” says González.

The rise in the Euribor in the last year and a half—in which it has gone from negative rates to exceeding 4%, thus reaching highest levels since 2008—has contributed to cooling the housing market. According to the latest data released this Tuesday by the National Institute of Statistics (INE), the mortgage firm fell by 29.6% in September compared to the previous year, accumulating eight consecutive year-on-year falls.