The upward revision of GDP does not guarantee greater growth than expected in 2023

The upward revision of the growth data for the last three years, published this Monday by the National Institute of Statistics, does not necessarily imply that the growth forecast for 2023 will be increased, but perhaps quite the opposite.

Miguel Cardoso, chief economist for Spain at BBVA Research, explains to EL MUNDO that “if the quarterly rates of 2023 are maintained, the upward revision of 2022 would lead to lower growth in 2023 (everything else constant),” although he warns of that “it will be necessary to see if the INE also revises growth upwards during this year”, since the Institute could also raise the interannual GDP growth of the first quarter of this year (4.2%) and the second (1.8 %).

Some experts consulted by this medium also point out that it is too early to know the impact that the revision known yesterday will have on this year's GDP, since until this Friday the INE will not specify in which quarters the revision has occurred: if the months in Those that grew more than estimated are the last ones in 2022, so there could be a carryover effect in 2023 that would raise the forecast for this year, says Manuel Hidalgo, researcher at EsadeEcPol and the Pablo de Olavide University.

Raúl Mínguez, director of the Studies Service of the Spanish Chamber of Commerce, speaks along the same lines, who does not believe “at the moment that it will substantially influence the forecasts” and who also refers to the publication of the quarterly series on the 22nd.. This fair body yesterday raised its GDP growth forecast from 1.9% to 2.1% for 2023 and, however, lowered that for 2024 to 1.7%.

“I don't think it will lead to an upward revision,” says José Emilio Boscá, professor of Economics at the University of Valencia and researcher at Fedea, in statements to this medium, “since macroeconomic models are increasingly include more leading indicators and qualitative information. The forecast may change somewhat, but I don't think it will be too much,” he predicts..

From the Ministry of Economy they have indicated that the “dynamism” of the economy of the last two years “is maintained during 2023”, which will allow us to be the country of the large economies that has the greatest growth, a comparative advantage that is due to many factors.

The European Commission has been the last major institution to update its growth forecasts for Spain, raising them three tenths compared to its spring projection, to 2.2% this year, but moderating the expectation for the next one tenth, to 1.9%.

Spain would thus grow well above the average (0.8% in both the EU and the Eurozone) and more than other large countries such as France (1%), Italy (0.9%) or, of course, Germany. , whose GDP will fall by 0.4% this year.