The Euribor is the indicator used to calculate the interest on mortgages in Spain as it is the reference index. However, after the consecutive increases in official interest rates by the European Central Bank (ECB) to contain inflation, the Euribor has not stopped growing.

This situation has directly impacted those customers who have a variable rate mortgage, who have seen how their monthly payment has increased considerably. In June, the Euribor finally broke the 4% barrier, which means that the monthly payment of an average mortgage rises by more than 250 euros.

According to Idealista data, the 12-month Euribor closed the month of June at 4.007%, compared to 3.862% in May and 0.852% in June 2022. “The Euribor average so far in July is 4.162%, having approached the level of 4.2% for several days.”

What will happen if inflation does not drop to 2%

What are the forecasts for the remainder of the year? According to Helpmycash experts, this index has risen in recent months from -0.477% (January 2022) to 4.007% (June 2023).. It is currently at its highest value since 2008 and the forecast is that “it will trade moderately upwards during the second half of 2023, and maintain this trend during 2024, although everything will depend on how inflation evolves.”

For its part, inflation in the euro area slowed to 5.5% in the last month of June, although core inflation increased. “If it does not fall considerably in a few months and is around 2%, which is unlikely, it is almost certain that the European Central Bank will raise its rates slightly in two or more of the four meetings that remain until the end of the year,” they point out.

If this scenario is reached, the ECB's main interest rate could end the semester at around 4.5%, placing the Euribor at 4.5% at the end of this year.