A little over a decade ago, austerity policies and the feeling of lack of an economic future led to the outbreak of a left-wing insurgency. A part of this felt that the institutions had failed them, that they had cheated and that it was necessary to show indignation towards them in the street and with a certain degree of aggressiveness.. From there emerged, in 2011, the 15-M and, in 2012, Surround the Congress. From there, clashes and routine confrontations between the police and protesters arose.. From there arose the feeling that some conflicts could not be resolved within the institutions because they were blocked.. It was a cycle that lasted until the 2015 elections..

Today, a part of the right wants to become a similar insurgency. He believes that the amnesty is a humiliation for the State and the Spanish people, he believes that it will overcome all procedural obstacles (Cortes, Constitutional), he believes that this will be a demonstration of the limits of institutional politics and he believes that all of this will show the systemic failure of Spanish democracy. And it will be proof that perhaps the Constitution was not so well thought out: if treason can be constitutional, he will point out, what does that say about our legal framework? Consequently, that part of the right will consider the street a legitimate resource not only to express its opposition to the amnesty and the subsequent left-wing Government, but also to make up for the inability of the institutions.. The protests of recent days in front of PSOE headquarters, and even around Congress, are just a sample and, surely, only the beginning.

Capture a movement

Whenever a movement of this type breaks out, political parties try to turn it into an electoral platform.. After 15-M, UPyD tried to take it over and failed; Izquierda Unida hesitated and missed the opportunity; Finally, Podemos turned it into its origin myth. The PP has already given up taking over the most aggressive part of the movement against the amnesty. It is an obvious decision: the PP cannot have a relationship with protests in which individuals shout against the head of state or the police as left-wing radicals did 10 or 12 years ago.. And these demonstrations with calls for insurrection clash with the political culture of the Spanish right-wing establishment: since when do liberals and conservatives intend to win in the streets what they lose in the State's institutions?

But there is a part of the right that seems destined to try to take advantage of this movement or even lead it: Vox and its powerful media environment. Since 2017, the moment in which Santiago Abascal explicitly stated that Vox was the “alternative right”, it has experienced a profound dilemma: does it want to be a conservative, law and order party, framed within the liberal tradition, or a anti-establishment party whose goal is to disrupt the system through anti-elite theories and calls for insurrection? That dilemma has been the source of almost all the ideological swings that have occurred since then.. But after his mediocre results in the elections last July and the disappearance of the possibility of joining a government coalition with the PP, he seems to have made up his mind: he has renounced his traditional conservative soul — that is why he got rid of Iván Espinosa de los Monteros —and he has given himself over to the anti-establishment discourse—which is why he has given more power to Jorge Buxadé—. In part, because it wants to differentiate itself more from the PP. In part, because he must try new things to see if he can stop or reverse his sustained electoral decline.. Given his statements since the beginning of this movement that wants to channel irritation against the left through provocative street and media tactics, it is likely that he has made the strategic decision to be the institutional face, and only slightly moderator, of the right-wing 15-M.

If that is so, it will expose our politics to immense risks. But also striking paradoxes. The left will adopt an institutional discourse according to which politics is made in Congress, and not in the streets. This right that Vox will try to ride will claim the street as a source of legitimate power. The left will demand respect for the forces and security bodies of the State. This right will denounce his violent abuses. The left that will grant an amnesty to those accused of street riots will affirm that the law must fall with all its weight on those who now provoke altercations. This right will affirm that decisions by the Executive should not be followed when they are manifestly unjust. The left will demand order. This right, insurrection.

All of this responds to the peculiar political circumstances of our country.. But he also has underlying reasons that go beyond him.. Those who, in much of Europe and the United States, took to the streets 12 years ago were leftists who later—like 15-M through Podemos, Occupy Wall Street with Bernie Sanders, Syriza in Greece or Jeremy Corbyn's Labor in the United Kingdom— They decided to operate within the institutions. Today, the real insurgents are the new anti-establishment right, who seem to have followed the opposite path: first, they entered the institutions; Now, they rely on street movements – such as the yellow vests in France, the Querdenken in Germany or, in the extreme and different case of the United States, the Capitol attackers – to carry out massive agitation..

Since 2011, we have seen many things in Spain. A right-wing 15-M was one of the few that we were missing. But everything indicates that we already have it here.