Broken before starting

The Sumar coalition was a kind of miracle of necessity. Sánchez surprised with an express electoral call that forced all parties to find the formula of maximum profitability and after May 28 that was a disaster for the purple ones, the main members of the coalition, namely those of Yolanda Díaz and those of Podemos, they were aware that the only possibility of obtaining a decent result was to add, although reluctantly.

Irene Montero's veto was the big straw that Podemos had to swallow, but contrary to what they had done on previous occasions, they did not dare to break the pact. They were aware that public opinion, their bases and above all, the officials who were left out, would not forgive them.. So, they participated in the elections with a marriage of convenience that did not convince any of the parties.. Once the July 23 deadline has passed, the main actors in this coalition now seek to regroup and protect their interests.. The results of the general elections were not conclusive to settle the internal battle. Nor good enough to consolidate Yolanda Díaz as the undisputed leader; nor bad enough to defenestrate it and assault the skies of the coalition with Montero and Belarra at the head.

Sumar, an artifact broken before it began, could hold the key to what happens in the future of Spanish politics. Whether there is a progressive government or not, those from Belarra seem willing to fight to preserve some autonomy and power. For her part, Yolanda Díaz is very clear that if she wants to consolidate the Sumar political project, she must keep it protected from the core of Galapagar, who one day anointed her as successor as a kind of delegate with a good image so that she could reign, but not govern..

The large part of the territorial elites of Podemos, now without institutional power, joined the side of Yolanda Díaz and made this clear in the municipal and regional elections on May 28, in which they signed non-aggression agreements.. However, these cadres still do not want to definitively break with the Podemos environment, with Pablo Iglesias who has a certain influence on his electoral bases and who does not hesitate to point out traitors, sewers and sellouts to the structures of the state, while as long as they do not support him without fissures.

And now that. The Spanish political panorama is unclear, but there are only two options. Either Sánchez gets the investiture or there is a repeat election. And in both scenarios the rupture of Sumar's space seems to be a fact and this could have important consequences on the governability of Spain.. Let's explore the options, because they all have depth.

During the investiture negotiation

There is much talk about the investiture and the supposed amnesty. However, the 5 Podemos deputies could give Sánchez and Díaz as many headaches as the 7 Junts deputies.. For now, they are biding their time, they are perfectly aware that they cannot compete with the media power of such a controversial clean slate political operation.. But in the PSOE and Sumar they cannot take the support of the purples for granted. Ione Belarra warns this in all the public interventions she makes. They will not negotiate with Sumar, nor will Yolanda Díaz be able to do so on their behalf.. Podemos wants to negotiate its own conditions directly with the PSOE. And if the 7 of Junts are well worth an amnesty because they are essential for there to be a government, the 5 of Podemos are no less so and the situation could arise that, at the last minute, the fundamental obstacle did not come from the nationalist parties/ independentistas, but of the partner who formed the first coalition government with Sánchez 4 years ago that was signed with the hug between Iglesias and Sánchez.

One might think that Podemos would not dare to tighten the rope so much and put a progressive government at risk.. But the truth is that you are afraid when you have something to lose. And those from Belarra could make the following equation: if they do not enter the government they will not have any media platform to cling to when the legislature begins to function.. If it is already difficult for a minority party in a government coalition to make the agreement and presence profitable, imagine what happens to those who support from the outside without having their own flags, or victories that they can make profitable among their electorate.. PSOE and Podemos are not the same, nor do they represent the same. For this reason, the purple ones have been able to make themselves noticed in policies that are not typical of the PSOE, or in measures to which they have dragged the socialists to less focused positions.. However, the differences between Sumar and Podemos are not clear; Therefore, those of Podemos will have a difficult time finding spaces, policies, measures, in which they will not be overshadowed by those of Díaz.. Consequently, they want, need and will pressure for Irene Montero to be minister.

Sánchez and Díaz obtain the investiture

Let's imagine that Sánchez's investiture is finally successful and he gets enough 176 seats to govern. The breakup of Podemos and Sumar will also be a whole chapter in the via crucis that awaits them to approve progressive policies that have nothing to do with territorial issues.. Firstly, because this majority that Sánchez is trying to forge is not clearly progressive. In fact, during the investiture debate, Mr.. Feijóo reminded those of the PNV that they had not voted for them to carry out the Podemos program. Together we still do not know where it is located on the ideological continuum, its miscellany with ex-convergents and people with no other discourse than independence makes them unpredictable. But if we look at their electoral program, I wouldn't place them on the radical left either.. Therefore, from an ideological point of view, the Spanish parliament has a right-wing majority that could not be amalgamated in a PP investiture due to the repellent that Vox represents for nationalists..

Therefore, Sánchez and Díaz will have to seek parliamentary support to approve progressive policies with unenthusiastic partners and with 5 Podemos deputies who have already announced that they are going to go on their own.. It matters little that they signed an agreement to join the Sumar coalition to integrate the parliamentary group. Now the seats are theirs and they will use them to affirm that everything their former partners propose seems unprogressive to them.. So the government, if formed, could be caught in an impossible equation between the centrifugal forces of the PNV and Junts that invite them to soften their political proposals and the Podemos 5 that accuse them of being a government without a leftist profile..

Electoral repetition

If there is a repeat election, Podemos will not join Sumar. Obviously, it is a statement that is endorsed by the interventions of the members of Belarra. In all of them we can see a certain regret for having succumbed to Díaz's ultimatum.. In fact, our colleague, Alejandro López de Miguel, published last Friday, October 20 in El Confidential, that Podemos was preparing its strategy to break with Sumar. In fact, they have already announced that they would not run again in elections without there being primaries to choose the candidate.. And if there is a repeat election, Díaz will once again argue that there is no time. If this scenario were to occur, Sumar and Podemos could compete separately in a supposed electoral repetition, which could mean that the fragmented space would not be able to make profitable all the votes in the area to the left of the PSOE and, therefore, reduce the possibilities of re-editing a progressive government.

Sumar's breakup is a fact, but the consequences of this divorce are still unclear. From forcing an electoral repetition to splitting the parliamentary group. They all have the same denominator, the weakness of the left and the strengthening of the right.. At the same time, a political force cannot be blamed for fighting for its survival, even if it means dying while killing..