The Region of Murcia has started the countdown to invest the popular candidate and winner of the elections, Fernando López Miras, as president or call elections. The blockade that prevents the formation of a government will end on September 7, either with an agreement between the Popular Party and Vox or with a call to the polls. Neither of the two parties like this scenario, but no one gives in their position. Not even the national turn of the Santiago Abascal party offering Núñez Feijóo its unconditional support has untied the knot that prevents the formation of a Government.

The leader of the formation in Murcia, José Ángel Antelo, was quick to clarify.. «The decisions that are made at the national level do not have an impact on the Region of Murcia, since they are different scenarios. We have obtained a representation of almost 18% of Murcians and we will fight so that their interests are taken into account, “he said in a statement hours after Abascal reached out to the PP.

This attitude of the national leader has been described as an “exercise of responsibility” by López Miras. «It shows a sense of State. And I think that that same responsibility, that sense of State, Vox of the Region of Murcia would also have to apply, unblocking the situation, “warned the acting president.

Murcia is, after the agreement in Navarra, the only community that has not formed a government and the first in the history of autonomy that may be forced to call its citizens to the polls due to the impossibility of reaching agreements. The parties have not met since July 4, when the PP expressed its intention to govern alone, agreeing to 88 measures, ceding the vice-presidency of the Regional Assembly and appointing former president Alberto Garre, now in Vox, as regional senator. They were relying on their 43% of votes and the 21 deputies (47% of the Assembly), only two of the majority.

Vox's response, after the agreement in the Valencian Community, was to claim the vice presidency and two ministries between Agriculture, Education, Family or Economy. Given the refusal to this “blackmail”, two failed votes and a month-long blockade watered by mutual accusations.

Who benefits or harms a return to the polls is unknown because the scenario is changing. According to the barometer of the Center for Public Opinion Studies in Murcia (CECOMP) published before the general elections on July 23, the PP would have obtained one more seat in the regional elections, which would have further strengthened its position of strength.. In fact, on 28M the Vox result was 1.6 points away from its expectations and in the general elections it fell in percentage of vote in all towns with more than 10,000 inhabitants and it was not the most voted in any. The Murcian PP, in the midst of a wave of change, was able to grow in the autonomous communities, capture 22.8% of the undecided vote and win the elections on 23J throughout the region.

Mobilization of the left?

The electoral repetition could weaken Vox in favor of the PP, but it is not without risks. The two electoral calls warn of various realities. The first is the enthusiastic mobilization of the right, which may be discouraged by the brake on change that Núñez Feijóo intended to promote, as well as by the weariness of third elections in less than six months.. They would have to be held 54 days after their call, which leads to the end of October. They could coincide with a possible investiture by Pedro Sánchez or with a new call for general elections.

But there is another piece of information collected by the regional post-election survey of the Murcian study center: the abstention hit the left and was primed with the PSOE, but among those who decided not to vote, up to 6.7% would have voted for the Socialists for barely a month after. And that wave could creep. In addition, Sumar appears on the stage, which could activate and unite the vote to the left of the PSOE and at least complicate the design of majorities, today turned to the right as in the last 30 years.

There is one last factor that leads one to think that electoral repetition is not the best option for any party, that they would be dragged back into a campaign, this time lasting one week, and to double spending that was close to one million euros in May, a maximum of 255,000 euros per game. A bite into the coffers of the formations that have been in a permanent campaign since last April.