Coup against the PSOE in the great municipal fiefdom that decides who wins on 28-M

“John has a serious problem”. This is one of the comments that have been circulating for a couple of days through the WhatsApp groups of former leaders of the Andalusian PSOE, those whom Juan Espadas cornered shortly after taking control of the party after defeating Susana Díaz in an operation designed by Ferraz and promoted by Pedro Sánchez and who are waiting for the moment, their moment, to call the Secretary General to account.

The scandal of the alleged purchase of votes in Mojácar (Almería) and, above all, the request of a judge from Granada to the TSJA to investigate his number three, Noel López, for the kidnapping of a councilor in Maracena -apparently for Silencing a complaint of urban corruption – has been a severe blow to the new Andalusian PSOE that Espadas has tried to embody since he defeated the former president of the Junta in early June 2021 and assumed control of the most powerful socialist federation. Not so much because of the effects that the succession of scandals in the final stretch of the campaign may have on the results of Sunday's elections, as because of the position of weakness in which the head of the party in Andalusia remains.. Both internally and in his role as opposition leader to the absolute majority government of Juanma Moreno. And it has been a hard blow, we must not forget it, for the PSOE because Andalusia is the great municipal stronghold that will tip the balance of victory on Sunday to one side or the other.

The new PSOE-A de Espadas distanced itself from the old corruption that led in the stage of Manuel Chaves and José Antonio Griñán – both convicted, by the way, for the case of the ERE – but the scandals of Mojácar and Maracena -with the ghost of urban corruption in the background – cloud the message again and damage, who knows to what extent, the image of the party. It is no longer a (supposed) corruption of the past, which can be attributed to previous leaders, not even to Susana Díaz. This, although punctual and not systematic like that of the ERE, is a (supposed) corruption solely and exclusively from their stage, from the Espadas era.

In the past (in the previous municipal elections without going any further) there were attempts to manipulate the vote similar to the one being investigated in Mójacar, for example in the Sevillian towns of Albaida del Aljarafe and Huévar del Aljarafe. But this supposed pucherazo impacts fully on the renewal project of the Andalusian PSOE.

Not to mention the kidnapping of Maracena, which splashes directly to the hard core of the leadership that Espadas had designed.

Although he has not yet been charged, the order of the Investigating Court 5 of Granada affirms that there are “sufficiently relevant” indications that the Secretary of Organization of the PSOE-A had knowledge of and participated in the frustrated kidnapping of the councilor Vanessa Romero. Not only because of the testimony of the kidnapper, Pedro Gómez, but also because of objective evidence such as the investigation of the mobile phones.

Despite the fact that López has denied his connection to the kidnapping and that the PSOE is talking about foul play in the electoral campaign, the reputational damage is undeniable and the scandal affects the leadership of Espadas, whose consolidation has not stopped work in these almost two years, precisely because it has been one of its weak points from the first moment. Because, in addition, socialist sources underline, that of Secretary of Organization is a position that is chosen “directly and it is reasonable that it be so”, the general secretary.

In the party there are many who consider that the electoral effect of all these scandals will not be too great, with the exception, of course, of the specific results in Mojácar and Maracena. But it is also a fairly widespread opinion that the situation is different for the purposes of the functioning of the party.

Juan Espadas takes a selfie with his trusted team, including Noel López, at the presentation of the electoral program for the 2022 regional elections. EFE

Especially if the Superior Court of Justice of Andalusia listens to the investigating judge and opens an investigation, and charges Noel López, the moral authority of Juan Espadas to control the executive of the PP and confront inside and outside Parliament would be significantly undermined.

But it is that, internally, the problem is even more serious. “Everything adds up”, say former leaders of the Andalusian PSOE who wait for the night of the 28th to take revenge and ask Espadas to account if the results are not good and a considerable part of the enormous territorial power of the PSOE is lost in the community they represent town halls and provincial councils. It should not be forgotten that the Socialist Party controls 60% of the consistories and six of the eight councils, an extraordinary municipal muscle that is difficult to compare with the rest of the PSOE.

These sources emphasize that the leadership of Espadas “is weak” in origin, due to the way in which he took over the reins of the formation. Scandals like the one in Mojácar and the one in Maracena “do not help” and “leave the party weakened”, underline among the critics, to whom the rosary of these days has given new arguments to bill the general secretary on the night of 28-M if, on top of that, the PSOE backs down in its municipal fiefdoms.

In the Andalusian PP, meanwhile, they coincide in not expecting very notable repercussions in the results of the elections on Sunday, but they emphasize that, of course, all this “does not benefit the PSOE.”

The two cases have occurred so close to the end of the campaign that the PP has not had time to measure its effect or change its own strategy.. What is true, they indicate from Moreno's party, is that the trend was slightly downward for the PSOE and slightly upward for the PP and that could be accentuated.

Popular sources point out that the damage to the PSOE and Espadas is unquestionable, beyond the effect on the vote, which could translate into a certain demobilization among the socialist electorate.