Diada 2023: fewer votes and less streets, but more influence than ever

The two thermometers to measure the state of mind of a political movement are its ability to mobilize on the street and at the polls.. The second, the only thing really worthy of reliability, has already certified in the last electoral cycle the key bearish sign of the actions of sovereignty. Catalonia is today more socialist than independentist and this is confirmed by the results of the last regional elections, but especially by the political map of local power after the municipal elections and the beating to which the PSC subjected the rest of the political forces in the last general elections.. In fact, if today Sánchez has a chance of being invested, it is thanks to the large number of deputy records that he garnered in Catalonia..

If the votes go down, the normal thing is that people will also desert on the street. The proof was yesterday's demonstration on the occasion of the Diada. The lowest participation since the process began more than a decade ago: 115,000 people are still a lot of people. But the decline is much more than notable and not only numerically.. Generational transversality has disappeared. The aging of the independence movement that is manifesting itself is so notable that it is inevitable to draw conclusions that the demoscopy also confirms.. Sovereignty has a serious problem with the younger layers of the population.

Fewer votes and fewer protesters. Otherwise, more of the same. Smackdowns between JxCAT and ERC, Òmnium playing the role of a good man trying to put back together what is in tatters and the Catalan National Assembly (ANC) threatening to issue fatwas of excommunication to ERC and JxCAT if they invest Pedro Sánchez without him being able to exercise it in Catalonia the right of self-determination. In fact, one of the few relevant things about yesterday's Diada is the almost announcement of a new independence list in the next elections in the event that Junqueras, but above all Puigdemont, confirms the negotiating logic made by the president of this entity. , Dolors Feliu. This list, if it is born, will cause problems for JxCAT, which has the largest number of sympathizers with unilateralism.. For the ANC, Puigdemont is one step away from joining the list of traitors. This is the patio.

The Diada also served to confirm that among the independence movement the amnesty is taken for granted. The resurrected Zapaterism, Sumar's undermining work and the conviction that Sánchez is willing to do anything to be inaugurated have created the environment in which no one doubts that the amnesty law will go ahead and that it will also do so before the investiture. of the socialist leader. This conviction reduces the socialists' possibilities of rectification. At this point, without amnesty there will be no investiture. There is no room for rectification. It is so digested among sovereignism that neither Puigdemont, nor Oriol Junqueras, will be in a position to present another initial victory other than this one. The creation of this environment is not the sole responsibility of Sumar, Yolanda Díaz and Jaume Asens. Zapaterismo has also acted and acts as a battering ram in the same direction.

More things about the Diada. The exhibition of the differences between JxCAT and ERC anticipates what is also known. If Sánchez manages to be inaugurated, the legislature is going to turn into hell. Junqueras and Puigdemont compete in all areas, but especially for the Generalitat. And a weak Government like the Catalan one – only 33 deputies support, out of 135, the Executive of Pere Aragonès – can collapse at any moment. The Madrid board, as soon as Sánchez begins to govern if he does, is going to be a bloody battlefield between republicans and junteros. And Sánchez is going to be the innkeeper that both will need to kick to gain credibility with the sovereigntist voter for whom they compete.

And to finish an executive summary of the Diada in three lines: fewer people, fewer votes, but more capacity to influence than ever on the future Government of Spain. It is not Puigdemont, it is not Junqueras. It is the arithmetic and the inability of the big parties to act in a concerted manner that is turning sovereign precariousness into a strength.