ERC and JxCAT veil weapons before the prospect of an electoral repetition in January

Cognitive dissonance in Spanish politics. While in Madrid they are preparing for Pedro Sánchez to be sworn in by the independence movement, in Barcelona the perception is just the opposite: ERC and JxCAT already watch over weapons in the face of an electoral repetition that they foresee for January. In the PSC too, although they do not express it in such an open way, aware that their cousins from the PSOE are defending in the Spanish capital that the investiture is feasible.

In summary, from Catalonia it is recognized that it may be arithmetically possible, but it is considered politically unlikely that Sánchez could repeat his mandate and, therefore, the parties take the calculator and begin to speculate about how they will do in the new electoral call for the Cortes. There is a common diagnosis: electoral repetition. From this point on, the recipes differ, since each formation makes the analysis based on their interests. There is fundamental agreement that the person who will have the last word will be Carles Puigdemont. And it is underlined that the former president right now lacks political incentives to close an agreement that keeps Pedro Sánchez in Moncloa.

The most radical sectors of JxCAT, as well as those around Waterloo, consider that an electoral repetition would favor them, even if they themselves forced it by not renouncing either the referendum or the amnesty. They calculate that returning to the polls could place them as the first pro-independence force, ahead of ERC. Those of Puigdemont anticipate that, if there is an electoral repetition, their coherence will bring them votes and they could end up with a result of 9-5 deputies in favor of their formation and to the detriment of those of Oriol Junqueras. Still, this is all pure speculation.. JxCAT sacrificed the pacts in the councils so as not to harm the candidacy of Míriam Nogueras and in the end they lost 140,000 votes in the last general elections.

JxCAT sources argue it as follows: Puigdemont promised blocking in the campaign and has achieved blocking. Puigdemont is not sold because of a personal exit and the campaign of the radical independence movement in favor of abstention will continue in a general election in January. But the voters will be primed, they hope, especially with ERC. And they consider that a part of those who abstained could return to the polls with their party's ballot. To make matters worse, Puigdemont has European elections in May 2024 and he needs that victory to be re-elected and maintain his, now precarious, parliamentary immunity, something that he would not achieve by making Pedro Sánchez president.. As said, zero incentives.

ERC's vision

From ERC they see it completely differently. In the Office of Strategy and Communication of the Presidency directed by Sergi Sebrià, a department created in the image and likeness of the one that Iván Redondo once had in Moncloa, they foresee that an electoral repetition could result in the ERC repeating seats, the current seven in Congress, while JxCAT would drop to five. In any case, they predict that they would be ahead of Puigdemont's party, arguing that, once they lost 400,000 votes in the general elections, the Republicans have already found their ground.

As if that were not enough, the PSC also has its own point of view, which does not coincide with the previous two. Salvador Illa's party hopes that the independence movement will collapse if they call the elections again. According to its own calculations, the PSC considers that it will capture the useful vote in Catalonia to stop Vox and thus exceed the current 19 seats, an already excellent result.

In this sense, all the formations believe that they will do better if they vote again, although it is evident that ERC has more reservations, while in JxCAT they are more convinced. Perhaps because they need it so that the sectors of Clara Ponsatí, Josep Costa and the rest continue advocating abstention in their attempt to politically kill Puigdemont. If the former president wants to survive this ordeal that is launched at him from the leadership of the ANC, he is obliged to oppose with all his might an investiture by Sánchez.

The dream of the blockade

Lastly, a good part of JxCAT —discounting the pragmatic sector, but also Waterloo and the supporters of active abstention, which is estimated to add up to 300,000 potential voters— believes that the blockade could continue after a second election. They expect a situation similar to that of Belgium to occur in 2019, when that country was without a government for 650 days due to the lack of agreement.

Among the supporters of this indefinite blockade are Laura Borràs and her followers, such as Quim Torra and other intellectuals. They consider that it would destabilize Spain and allow the independence movement to try again a unilateral initiative like the one in 2017. A new window of opportunity for the independence movement. The problem is that, socially, there is a feeling that this moment will not return and somehow the Catalan public has already turned the page on what happened six years ago. The perception that “we will do it again” remains, however, installed in the discourse of the pro-independence political class. So the cognitive dissociation is not only between Madrid and Catalan politics, but also between Catalan voters and the parties that aspire to represent them.