Feijóo asks the PP to lower expectations so as not to demobilize his electorate
After its victory in the regional and local elections on May 28, the PP is experiencing a honeymoon effect that has immediately moved to the polls. Not only because of the results, but also because of the expectation of exponential growth of its territorial power, and because the trend is playing in its favor for the general elections that Pedro Sánchez called point-blank after the defeat of the PSOE. For example, the Sigma Dos Panel for this newspaper gives the Popular Party a forecast of 144 deputies (nine more than in April), compared to 99 for the Socialists.
In the national leadership of Genoa they consider that this is only the beginning of an escalation of useful votes that will consolidate Feijóo's victory, but they want to manage expectations “prudently” to maintain the “tension” of the electorate in the heat of heat.
The main pollsters with whom the Genoa team works estimate that when local elections are close to general ones, the winner experiences a rise of between 3.5 and 7.5 percentage points. Within that range, the PP believes that on July 23 the “plebiscite” on Sánchez will be “even greater” than on 28-M, where the profile of many of the socialist candidates “mitigated” the punishment, in the eyes of the managers consulted.
The euphoria has spread through the territorial tentacles of the PP, and also in the national leadership, where at least four consulted leaders calculate that their party is in a position to exceed 155 or even 160 seats and govern alone.. The threshold (almost psychological) that the popular have set to avoid having to govern with Vox is 150 deputies, to request abstentions and then try to weave extra-governmental alliances with some of the parties with which they have already had contacts in recent months.. For example, Coalición Canaria, Partido Regionalista de Cantabria, Foro Asturias, or even the PNV. Or, curling the loop, even with JxCat, which the PP could favor in Barcelona if it does not vote against Xavier Trias.
unpredictable choices
All these are the cabals -based on internal statistics- that the popular leadership makes, but, as this newspaper has learned, Feijóo has asked his people to lower the expectations of the PP in the face of the elections on 23-J. Because? “Because our electorate demobilizes if it sees that things have already been done,” judges one of the main popular leaders. “Although I believe that we are going to go up a lot more [from 144 seats] and we will be able to govern alone, we must be calm and continue step by step, because the effect that an election can have at the end of July is unpredictable,” adds another senior Genoa charge.
“Feijóo has asked to press and not trust us, because although the right is more mobilized than the left, there is also a risk of demobilization,” adds a veteran deputy. In other words, “lower expectations”, in short. How did the PP already do in the elections two weeks ago? “Yes, but with more reason because nobody knows how the date will influence,” another of the sources consulted is honest.
Indeed, before the local and regional elections, the popular ones already lowered the soufflé of the polls, to try to be above expectations later. And it turned out well, because they achieved a much better result than the one predicted by the consensus of the demoscopy. A few days before the 28-M campaign, the PP commissioned a study on the situation in the big cities, and in view of results that were encouraging, but not definitive, it decided to ease off the accelerator a bit in public, after having spoken of a “motion of censure” against Sánchez or a “second round”. Just a few days before the start of that campaign, Feijóo acted accordingly and assured that the PSOE would hold out “better” in the local and regional elections than “in the general elections”.. «A good result is to win the elections. We aspire to win them all. We want to win and after 28-M we will see”, modulated the popular ones, then settling for getting one more vote than the PSOE.
Yesterday, in Valencia, the leader of the PP called for a clear mobilization to prevent the victory of his party from being discounted so much that people stop voting on vacation. “We are going to mobilize our party to the maximum because it is not our fault that Sánchez has immobilized the PSOE”. “Mobilize the party,” he repeated.