In the general elections of 2015 and 2016, multipartyism was installed in Spain. Podemos and Ciudadanos emerged. In the Andalusian regional elections of 2018, Vox emerged, which in the legislative elections of November 2019 obtained 52 seats, the third political force. The party headed by Albert Rivera has collapsed and that of Iglesias is about to do so, diluted in that precarious artifact that is Sumar.

Neither orange nor purple knew how to diagnose the reason for their electoral support and, consequently, neither played their true role on the political board. Their leaders believed that they had been born with a hegemonic vocation and were confused because the reality in both cases was that the collective intelligence of the electorate positioned them as complementary to the two great parties —PSOE and PP— to balance them and force them to carry out an exercise of internal regeneration and of ideological reformulation, but not to replace them. By ignoring their mission, the citizens have not followed the purposes of their leaders and have punished them with the virtual disappearance.

Vox error could be the same. If, as it seems, they are unaware that the support they obtain at the polls does not imply a challenge to replace the policies of the Popular Party, their leaders would be seriously mistaken.. They are already doing it by promoting an electoral repetition in Extremadura, after having handed over to the PSOE the presidency of the autonomous Chamber that María Guardiola, the leader of the PP, offered to those of Abascal, in addition to another position on the regional Parliament Board and the guarantee of a senator of autonomous designation. Being the equation so favorable for the PP (28 seats) with respect to Vox (five seats), the compensation for the minority is more than acceptable.

Isabel Díaz Ayuso, as now the popular leader of Extremadura, although in other coordinates, also offered Vox and its leader Rocío Monasterio reasonable compensation to support the latest regional budget. They did not accept them and the consequence was that in the elections on May 28, the PP obtained an absolute majority (70 seats) while Vox, now irrelevant, lost two seats in the Vallecas Assembly (it went from 13 to 11).. Yesterday, the woman from Madrid gave her investiture speech for which, for the first time, she will not depend on anyone outside her parliamentary group.

If at the command of Vox you come to believe that your electorate celebrates that as a result of any response to the PP's offer, a socialist has risen to the presidency of the Parliament of Extremadura and that Guillermo Fernández Vara is running for a new investiture, it is because they are unaware of the sociological reality of its voters and, in general, of the Spanish right. Those of Vox seem as ignorant of the pulse of that social sector as Rivera and Arrimadas, when the first wanted to surpass the PP and the second clandestinely censor the president of the Region of Murcia with the PSOE, a stratagem that ended up sinking Ciudadanos.

Vox and the PP, which has emboldened him, have to distinguish between agreeing and giving in. The first implies demanding certain policies from each other and putting aside those others in which there is no agreement. To give in is to renounce one's own convictions and give positions of advantage to the interlocutor.. And if for Vox there are aspects that cannot be declined, they are also for the PP. With the difference that the dimension of the blues has no comparison with that of the greens. And above both there is a national and international regulation that establishes non-derogable requirements (laws that will not be altered and international agreements that bind the State)..

The example of a bad system of political agreements is that of Pedro Sánchez with Pablo Iglesias. The PSOE did not agree, but gave in. Sánchez did not agree with Podemos, for example, the law of only yes is yes, but he gave in on that and other projects and proposals. Now, the President of the Government goes through the media distancing himself from decisions shared with Podemos that he should never have assumed. He also distances himself from Bildu, despite the fact that with the coalition they approved the general state budget, the two unfortunate reforms of the Penal Code, the unnecessary law of democratic memory and, among others, the housing law.

Maria Guardiola's speech is correct. Because power always has a price, but not just any price, because when it is burdensome to excess, the reeds become spears, as is happening to the PSOE general secretary. Hence, repeating elections in Extremadura —a way of losing in order to win— would be with the highest probability the worst hypothesis for Vox, while for the popular ones it would consist of a risk, without a doubt, but also with probabilities of the greatest success.. For one reason: Vox would not leave the voters of the broad spectrum of the right any other alternative to evict the coalition of the PSOE and Unidas Podemos, and, therefore, Pedro Sánchez, than to turn to the useful vote for the Popular Party. For the Spanish right, the Swedish model (the radical has not entered the Government, but supports it) would be a necessary reference, given the correlation of forces between them (Notebook of October 20, 2022).