García-Page absorbs the vote of Ciudadanos and will repeat an absolute majority in Castilla-La Mancha

Emiliano García-Page is in a position to offer Pedro Sánchez a sweet electoral victory in Castilla-La Mancha. The territorial baron will sign a resounding absolute majority and will be able to govern alone for another four years, showing off his conservative socialism, critical of the Prime Minister and his parliamentary alliances, according to the IMOP-Insight survey for El Confidencial.

The data of the estimate of the vote, already launched the race towards the polls, are conclusive and show an overwhelming victory of the PSOE in the five provinces. With 46.5% of the votes, García-Page's candidacy grows 2.4 points and would obtain between 18 and 19 seats in the regional Parliament. Although a seat in Guadalajara dances for him, the Socialists are clearly above the 17 who mark the absolute majority. Page will have a third term as head of the Government of the Junta de Comunidades de Castilla-La Mancha. Thus, the hegemony of the conservative socialism of José Bono (1983-2004) and José María Barreda (2004-2011) is maintained, only interrupted once by the PP of María Dolores de Cospedal (2011-2015)..

The distance of the PSOE with respect to the PP continues to be sidereal. Francisco Núñez's candidacy fails to take off and only grows three points compared to 2019: from 28.5% of support to 31.6%. A poor result that indicates that the regional leader does not shoot, which contrasts with the trend of voting behavior for the generals, where a strong growth of the PP of Alberto Núñez Feijóo in the community is drawn.

Compared to what happens in the rest of the country, the popular ones do not benefit from the electoral orphanage left by the party founded by Albert Rivera and its voters identify García-Page in the political centrality. The collapse of Ciudadanos, which falls from 11.4% to 2.3% of the vote and disappears from the regional map, is taken advantage of by the Castilian-La Mancha PSOE. More than for the PP. The incorporation of several orange charges to the socialist ranks traces the way.

Vox will debut in the Castilian-La Mancha Parliament with two deputies, going from 7% to 12.1% of the vote. He has guaranteed representation in Guadalajara, where he obtains 16.7% of the support in this constituency. The last seat is at stake, which oscillates between the PSOE and the PP by a minimum difference of two tenths. The other representative of the formation of Santiago Abascal will be by Toledo (13.8%).

On the other hand, United We Can not manage to return to the regional courts after having done so in 2015, when they conditioned even the first Executive of García-Page. The purple coalition is left with 4.8% in the region, with no probability of obtaining representation in any of the five provinces. The drastic reform of the electoral system promoted by Cospedal's PP in 2015, which reduced the number of seats in Parliament from 49 to 33, does not favor him.

By provinces, the PSOE obtained its best result in Ciudad Real, with 49% of the vote, and its lowest level was in Guadalajara, with 42%.. The sociodemographic distribution of the socialist voter confirms that Page is sweeping across all social segments, although it is more female than male, increases with age and is clearly stronger in small towns than in urban centers.

In the electorate that is located on the left (points 1 to 4 of the ideological scale), the PSOE obtains an overwhelming 77% of voting intention. In those who are located in point 5 (mixture of centrists and non-ideologization), García-Page's candidacy obtains 61%, with an advantage of 40 points over the PP. Only in the space on the right (from point 6 in the ideological self-positioning) do the popular outnumber the socialists, which means that the regional president has no rival on the left and seems “to have won the so-called center space by a landslide”. ”, as highlighted by Ignacio Varela, analyst and director of the Electoral Observatory.

This regional survey reveals two unique circumstances in Spain in terms of vote transfers between parties, says Varela. Voters who abandon Ciudadanos lean to a greater extent for the PSOE (29.1%) than for the PP (24.6%), which cements the absolute majority of García-Page. And in the exchange between the popular and Vox, the balance is favorable for the latter: 57,000 voters would go to Abascal's party, while on the contrary only 14,000 are counted.. This would explain the poor result of the leader of the regional PP, who barely manages to reduce his disadvantage with the Socialists by a few tenths, despite the fact that the national current operates strongly in the opposite direction, points out our opinion poll expert and columnist.

The estimated participation is 66% (it was 68% in 2019) and, what is more important, 67% of those interviewed already have their vote decided. There will be little margin for a turnaround in the time remaining until 28-M. The underlying trend in these elections is also confirmed. The bipartisanship is also reinforced in Castilla-La Mancha, since the sum of PP and PSOE would go from 72.6% to 78.1%.

Strong leadership from Garcia-Page

The strength of the leadership of Emiliano García-Page, by himself and in comparison with the candidates of the other parties, is the main key to his overwhelming victory in the regional elections. The president is by far the best-known regional political leader. Only 5% say they do not know him or refrain from scoring. This rate of ignorance (those who do not know it plus those who do not rate it) grows to 44% for Francisco Núñez, PP candidate; 77% for the UP candidate; 75% for the Ciudadanos candidate, and 85% for Vox.

This contrast turns the regional elections in Castilla-La Mancha into a sort of plebiscite on the actions of the regional president. And García-Page leaves the exam very graceful. On the one hand, it obtains an average score of 5.6. Only 27% of those interviewed failed it with a grade of less than 5. The voters of the PSOE in 2019 give it a 7.3 (half rate it between 8 and 10), and those of the PP, an honorable 4.5. The lowest score is obtained among those of Vox, who give it a 3.6. Therefore, it has a high approval rate among its voters and a modest rejection rate among the voters of its rivals..

On the other hand, 42% of those consulted indicate him as their preferred candidate to continue in the Palace of the Counts of Fuensalida. Only 13% point to the Popular Party candidate, and the other applicants obtain insignificant percentages in this section. Among those who prefer García-Page as a candidate are 75% of the socialist voters of 2019, but also 31% of those of Ciudadanos, 26% of those of Unidas Podemos and 22% of those of the PP.

The discreet knowledge and acceptance data obtained by the PP candidate is striking, well below the electoral potential of his party. It would seem that, in view of this survey, the PSOE will widely win the regional elections thanks to its candidate, while the PP will slightly improve its previous result solely due to the strength of the brand and despite the low pull of its regional leader.

Regarding environmental indicators, 59% are satisfied with the current situation in Castilla-La Mancha, which they consider good. For 17%, the situation in the region is simply fair, and 23% assess it negatively.

In the comparison with the rest of Spain, opinions are divided. 35% believe that Castilla-La Mancha is better off than the rest of the country, 26% that it is the same and 32% that it is worse off, expressing an awareness of backwardness and/or abandonment. In this regard, compared to the surveys published so far by El Confidencial, the opinion of the Castilian-La Mancha people is situated at an intermediate point between that of Extremadura, who express a strong feeling of comparative grievance, and that of Madrid and Aragonese , which look clearly better than the rest of the country.

The performance of the regional government deserves a good assessment. 52% rate it as good, 17% regular and 31% bad. In these opinions, the political position clearly operates as a differential factor. In any case, there is a much more transversally favorable attitude towards the figure of the regional president than towards the management of its Executive.

Data sheet