Territorial realities are prevailing over the national debate in the final stretch towards the polls in the autonomies where regional parliaments are elected. This is at least clear from the field work in the regional samples published yesterday by the Center for Sociological Research (CIS), which reflects a significant collapse of the general affairs of Spain when asked about the degree of influence in the decision to vote of the regional elections.

Although electoral cycles and national voting trends tend to inevitably reflect on regional calls, the 28M event has become a pulse of strategies among the socialist barons, who try to keep the noise of the so-called 'national debate' away from their campaigns. ', and the Popular Party's defense of a speech that approaches the elections as a plebiscite on the figure of the President of the Government, Pedro Sánchez, even at the risk that this approach could become a boomerang in the event that the conservatives fail to conquer some of the important places now in the hands of the PSOE alone or with their leftist partners.

“We are going to repeal sanchismo,” he said this Thursday at a rally to kick off the campaign in Valencia. “The end of sanchismo in Spain begins in the Valencian Community; the change you deserve begins here,” added Carlos Mazón, the popular candidate for the Generalitat, appealing to the mobilization of the center-right electorate.

However, is the national debate what will most influence the final decision of the voters? Can the result be interpreted as a victory or defeat for Sánchez or Feijóo? Last December, the CIS published a macro-survey on autonomous voting trends in which it included a question in the territories that hold regional elections with the following formulation: “When it comes to voting in the next elections in your autonomous community, what Will it be more important to you: the issues specific to your autonomous community or the general issues of Spain?”.

The response was different by neighborhood. Castilla-La Mancha was the only territory in which the national debate prevailed over the regional one in the configuration of the vote. 49.2% considered general issues in Spain to be more important when going to vote on May 28, compared to 43.3% who preferred regional issues. In the rest of the territories with elections (there are twelve in total) the option of regional issues prevailed, as in a certain logic corresponds to the type of electoral call.

However, the macro-survey reflected an important influence of national politics in the decision to vote at a time when the PSOE and PP were in a bitter clash over the reform of the crimes of sedition and embezzlement in the Penal Code, the renewal of the constitutional bodies or the law of the only yes is yes. This may explain why, for example, in the Valencian Community the percentage that considered national issues key to decide the Generalitat rose to 43.5%, that in Murcia it reached 40% and that in other autonomies such as Aragon, the Canary Islands, the Balearic Islands. or Extremadura exceeds 35%.

These figures have undergone a significant evolution just four months later, also coinciding with a reduction in the soufflé of the national debate. The field work of the pre-electoral study of municipal and autonomous communities published yesterday by the CIS was carried out between April 10 and 26 and in all cases there has been a decrease in the importance of national politics in the voting decision. In the Valencian case, it has fallen more than thirteen points; in Cantabria, eleven. In Extremadura, even more, with 16 points less. In Aragon, the Balearic Islands or La Rioja, around ten points. Castilla-La Mancha has inverted its graph with 57.1% regional weight and 37.3% national. The community governed by Emiliano García-Page continues in first place in terms of voters influenced by the general debate. Navarra is the least: only 17.3% cite the general issues of Spain as motivation to vote in the regional elections.

All in all, experts advise not taking these data in isolation when interpreting to what extent national trends will or will not mark the results of next May 28. “It makes sense that as the campaign approaches, it lands more in the territorial. This happens even in big cities.. But from the point of perception, it seems to me a very complex exercise to be able to discern state and regional issues with the scenario we have, with so much ideological and emotional polarization and the radicalization of discourses,” Aida Vizcaino Esteban, a professor, told El Confidencial of Political Science and Administration of the University of Valencia.

“This must be viewed with caution because there may be a social desirability factor in the response. People answer what they are expected to answer to a direct question about regional authorities”, warns the political scientist. The expert advises comparing these answers with the post-election surveys carried out after May 28 to draw conclusions.