Next May 28 are the municipal and regional elections. The latest pre-election survey on voting intentions, prepared by the Center for Sociological Research (CIS) and released this Thursday, a few hours after the official start of the campaign, presents a very open scenario with wide ranges in its estimates of seats that yield results. disparate and possibility of pacts of different sign.

This macro-survey reflects that in the Community of Madrid the Madrid president, Isabel Díaz Ayuso (PP), would have the possibility of reaching an absolute majority. The PSOE, for its part, could retain its main regional strongholds such as the Valencian Community, revalidating the Botánic pact; although without winning the elections; The Socialists would win in Castilla-La Mancha and Extremadura, but their current government in Aragon and La Rioja is in danger.

Madrid's community

The PP would win the regional elections in the Community of Madrid and would again add more seats than all the leftist groups, with Más Madrid as the main opposition force and Unidas Podemos within the Madrid Assembly. These are the main conclusions of the pre-electoral study of the Center for Sociological Research (CIS), reports Mónica Tragacete.

The poll gives the candidate for re-election, Isabel Díaz Ayuso, a voting intention of 45.2%, on the verge of an absolute majority. This percentage of support at the polls would translate between 61 and 70 regional deputies, according to the CIS, a very wide range in which very different scenarios fit.. Taking the lower part, the 'popular' would need Vox to govern -formation to which the CIS gives between 8 and 11 seats in the Chamber of Vallecas-, but in the upper section of the estimate it places the current head of the Executive in the absolute majority, that the next legislature will be at 68 seats.

Valencian Community

The left would prevail both in the Generalitat and in the Valencia City Council, which would allow the socialist president Ximo Puig and the mayor of Compromís Joan Ribó to revalidate their current positions, according to the pre-election study published this Thursday by the Center for Sociological Research (CIS ).

At the regional level, the study predicts a victory for the left with forks ranging from 47 to 58 seats (the absolute majority is 50 deputies), compared to 39-48 for the right, which would not add up in any of the scenarios, reports J. L. Workshop.

Castilla la Mancha

The pre-electoral study of the Center for Sociological Research (CIS) points out that the socialist Emiliano García-Page will continue in the Government of Castilla-La Mancha after the regional elections on May 28, since it gives him a range of 16 to 22 seats -in a parliament of 33- while the sum of PP and Vox does not exceed 15 deputies in any scenario.

The CIS indicates that the PP would achieve 9 to 11 deputies, Vox would obtain between two and four and Unidas Podemos, between none and two.

The pre-electoral study shows that the PSOE would obtain 38.4 percent of the direct vote in the survey, while the PP would reach 18.2 percent; Vox would rank as the third force with 8.9 percent; Unidas Podemos would collect 4.8 percent of the votes and Ciudadanos, 1.2%.

Estremadura

The PSOE of Extremadura would obtain between 28 and 29 seats in the next regional elections on May 28, while the PP would add between 24 and 26 deputies, Vox would enter the Assembly of Extremadura with 5 or 6 parliamentarians, and United for Extremadura would have between 4 and 8. This is reflected in the pre-election survey published this Thursday by the Center for Sociological Research (CIS).

According to these data, the Extremadura PSOE of Guillermo Fernández Vara would continue to maintain a majority in the Extremadura Assembly but would lose the absolute majority that it now has with 34 deputies in the Chamber, while the PP led by María Guardiola would grow from 20 parliamentarians that he obtained in 2019, to the between 24 and 26 that this survey gives him.

The Rioja

The PP would win the regional elections in La Rioja on May 28, with 39.2 percent of the votes, achieving between 14 and 15 deputies – it currently has 12 -, while the PSOE would obtain 36 percent of the support, and the number of parliamentarians would drop, from the 15 that it now has to the 13-14 that the CIS survey gives it.

However, neither of the two formations achieves a majority, which in the La Rioja Parliament is set at 17 seats. To do this, they must seek support from the rest of the forces that attend the elections. Specifically, the survey gives Podemos-IU 9.9 percent of the votes, which would give it between 2 and 4 parliamentarians, compared to the two they currently have, when they competed under the 'Unidas Podemos' brand.

Vox would enter the La Rioja Chamber for the first time, obtaining 5.6 percent of the support, with which they would achieve between 1 and 2 deputies.

Cantabria

The PP of José María Sáenz de Buruaga would win the elections with 23.1% of the votes and between 12 and 13 deputies. The regionalist party of Miguel Ángel Revilla, currently in power, would fall to six or seven seats, which would leave him out of the regional presidency. For its part, the PSOE would get one or two more seats, so it would have between eight and nine deputies. Citizens would be left out of Parliament, losing their two seats. Two seats that would go to Podemos, which would enter the chamber with between two and three seats. According to the CIS, Vox would go up from one to four or five.

Asturias

The PSOE would win the regional elections in Asturias by obtaining 36.7 percent of the votes. In second place would be the Popular Party (PP) with a voting intention of 27.3%. Vox, for its part, would be in third place, with 9.1% of the votes. Podemos would achieve a voting intention of 8%, but it would not be worth it to obtain parliamentary representation. The same would happen to Ciudadanos, which with only 3.7% of popular support, would be left without representation.

Navarre

UPN would be the party with the most votes in the next regional elections with between 10 and 13 seats (13.4%), but it would be its worst result in more than 30 years. UPN is followed by PSN, which would occupy second place with between 9 and 12 representatives. Geroa Bai with 8-10 seats and EH Bildu also with 8-10 would be the third and fourth forces. The Popular Party of Navarra (PPN) would achieve between 5 and 6 representatives, Contigo Navarra from 2 to 4 deputies and Vox 2-3 seats.

Aragon

The PP would win the elections. Jorge Azcón, who would achieve from 24 to 28 deputies with 36.2% of the votes. Even so, this result would not be enough to achieve the 34 seats that give rise to an absolute majority over the 67 that make up the chamber.. Image of the two ballot boxes. For its part, the PSOE would achieve between 24 and 26 deputies (it obtained 23 in 2019) and a voting intention of 31.1%. It would need to reach several agreements to get beyond the 34 seats of the absolute majority. However, it seems difficult to reissue the old coalition, since the PAR could disappear from the parliamentary arc after its split. Podemos and IU would also lose representation after deciding to go separately: they would get three and one seat respectively. La Chunta could also lose representation and would be left with between 2 and 4 seats. According to the CIS, the keys to the Aljafería Palace would be in the hands of España Vaciada, to whom it grants four deputies.

Murcia

According to the Center for Sociological Research (CIS), the results of the autonomous elections in Murcia would leave the Popular Party (PP) as the most voted political force with between 17 and 18 seats. However, it would lose popular support. The PSOE, in second place, would have between 14 and 16 deputies. Vox maintains third place with a significant increase. They would go from four seats to between seven and nine. Ciudadanos would lose the six seats it achieved in 2019 and would leave the Murcian Parliament. Finally, Podemos-Equo, the coalition would get between two and three deputies. 

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Canary Islands

The PSOE would win the elections in the Canary Islands with 33% of the votes while the PP snatches the second position from CC by reaching 20%. The CIS has not made a projection of seats for the Canary Islands due to the small sample size and the characteristics of the Canary Islands electoral system.