If that evil queen had thought to pay for a survey to find out who was the most beautiful in the kingdom, if Snow White or her, surely they would have given her the brink of absolute majority. In addition to being magical, that little mirror had to be very, very brave to dare to tell its owner, the most powerful woman in the place, something different from what she expected to hear, after years of giving her ears. Normal that the Grimm brothers saw a mirror that speaks more credibly to contradict the queen than a poor consultant whose head, or contract, depended on keeping the person who asks happy.
Something similar has happened with the 23-J polls, but without magic, expertise or courage. Most have been wrong, yes, but they have done it more to the side of what the person who paid for them wanted to hear. Many things have gone wrong in the polls, in addition to the technical complexities of detecting the undecided vote and last-minute changes of opinion, beyond the ideological bias. Also the tendency to the so-called demoscopic consensus, that is, not to stray too far from what the person next to you says so as not to mess up alone, which is more noticeable. And since the idea of the overwhelming victory of the PP had been installed since the electoral advance after the municipal elections, the expectations fed back to the most complacent little mirrors.
When the Lehman Brothers crisis occurred, this debate with the rating agencies was intensely experienced. They proved incapable of analyzing the real risks of the system, partly due to a lack of transparency and excessive conflicts of interest, which called into question their independence.. That crisis of 15 years ago served to redefine the function of these risk rating agencies, their limits, their financing and their incompatibilities. Also to remember that the great crises come from latent risks that escape the radar, which after the fact seem obvious to everyone.
The hyperinflation of polls in the last electoral campaign, which have been shown to be unsuccessful, now raises a review of the demographic system. The experts in polls, the parties and the media have pending a reflection on how electoral polls should be carried out to recover the lost credibility. But not only is a review of its independence and transparency urgent, but also of its role. It is not only necessary to review how the surveys are carried out, but also what they are for, beyond blaming them for the frustration of expectations.
Was a state party like the PP really deciding on the fly the relevance of agreeing or not with a party like Vox based on the polls? And the principles? What happened to the beginnings? And the leadership? Perhaps the problem was not the polls then, but conveying the feeling that the party was letting itself be carried away too opportunistically by them, putting opportunism before values.
Vox is not just another party, especially in a country where 70% of society is in favor of abortion and euthanasia, 80% defend equal marriage and 80% are very concerned about climate change.. How was it not going to generate a majority objection in society to associate in regional pacts in the middle of the campaign with those who deny all this?. The failed surveys did not allow the PP to gauge the danger of approaching Vox. Both to scare away moderate voters and to mobilize the disillusioned left. True, but is that the polls' fault? Or who is guided by them instead of by clear leadership?
That's what the principles are for, to not trust the ups and downs of the polls and avoid groping in moments of confusion. Spain is a moderate country politically and advanced socially, the polls also say that. There are principles that should be beyond any doubt to associate in regional pacts in full campaign for any party that aspires to an absolute majority. Mirror, magic mirror, who is the most moderate in the kingdom?